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Today, we have an early start time for MLB action. Below you will find my favorite lines to target for today’s slate of games, which you can mix and match with one other or add to your own favorite plays!
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Top MLB Prop Picks 4/17
Steven Kwan MORE Than 0.5 Runs
Kwan has been one of the biggest surprises offensively in the early going this season. He is batting .372 with a .395 OBP through his first 17 games. He is second in the American League in batting average, tied for first in hits, and leads the American League in runs scored. He has scored 18 times in 17 games and has a matchup tonight against Tanner Houck of the Red Sox, who allowed 12 hits in his most recent outing. The Guardians are one of the highest-scoring teams in MLB right now, and as the leadoff man in this lineup, Kwan will have plenty of opportunities to get on base and find his way around the bases.
Freddie Freeman MORE Than 0.5 Runs
Freeman is one of the best hitters in MLB and is also one of the top run scorers over the past three seasons. He has led the National League in runs in three of the past four seasons and has no less than 117 runs scored in each of the past three seasons. His elite OBP and .300 + batting average play a role in his ability to score runs, of course, the more he is on base, the better chance he has to score. He is also aided by being in an elite Dodgers lineup with high-profile run producers hitting behind him too. When players like Freeman, Betts, or Acuna Jr. have a prop of 0.5 runs or more, you need to bet the MORE. Freeman didn’t score a run last night, despite reaching base twice, however, that only means that the likelihood of him scoring one today is even higher.
Tarik Skubal LESS Than 6.5 Strikeouts
As good as Skubal is on the mound, this total is high if you look at his body of work so far this season. He has six or fewer strikeouts in two of his three starts this season, with his one game of more than six coming against the Oakland A’s. Not only are the A’s one of the worst lineups in baseball, but they also strike out at a high rate. Skubal will face the defending World Series champion Rangers today, it’s a tough lineup to navigate through and it’s hard to imagine him going more than five or six innings today because of it. The Rangers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to striking out as well, so even if Skubal does give length in this game, it doesn’t mean that his strikeout totals will be high.
Anthony Volpe MORE Than 0.5 Runs
Volpe has started the season so well for the Yankees that they decided to move him into the lead-off spot in the order. This is getting him five at-bats or more most nights, and when you are batting .373 with a .464 OBP, you are going to be on base often with a chance to score runs. It might explain why Volpe has 14 runs in 16 games so far this season, and his ability to steal a base and put himself in scoring position helps as well. Let’s also consider that he now bats directly in front of superstars Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. We really couldn’t ask for a better situation in terms of betting on a player to score a run. He struck out four times last night, by far his worst game of the season, so look for him to get back on track today.
