No one would have believed this a year ago, but the Texans are now one of the most exciting teams in the league, whether you’re talking about fantasy or NFL football. I already gave my brief thoughts on a lot of these players when Houston made headlines by trading for Stefon Diggs, but now it’s time to take a look back at how we got here — what changed for the Texans in 2023, and what can it tell us for 2024?
Ground Rules: Check out the first edition here for a full explanation of what’s going on. All scoring is Half-PPR, Week 18 stats are not included (so a full season is 16 games), and only players currently being drafted in the top 200 of Underdog Best Ball drafts are covered.
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 260; QB13
- Games Played: 14
- Points Per Game: 18.6; QB11
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 13
- Points Per Full Game: 19.6; QB6
I don’t think you need me to tell you how outstanding C.J. Stroud’s rookie season was. He ranked second to only Kyle Shanahan Brock Purdy in adjusted net yards per attempt. He posted a 74% adjusted completion percentage on a 9.3 ADOT. He threw 26 touchdowns to only FIVE interceptions. He single-handedly turned the Texans franchise around. Some of his metrics were closer to great than truly elite, as he ranked “just” 14th in PFF Passing Grade, 20th in CPOE, and 10th in EPA per dropback, but his was undeniably one of the best rookie seasons of the last decade. However, from a fantasy perspective, Stroud’s season doesn’t quite live up to the hype. He posted just four top-10 QB finishes during the fantasy season, with one more if we count Week 18. He also had more regular season games below 20 fantasy points (nine) than he did above (six). The standard of passing production required to be an elite fantasy QB with almost no rushing upside (Stroud averaged just 11 yards per game on the ground) is insanely high, and Stroud’s rookie year simply didn’t reach it.
Takeaway
Before the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs, Stroud was one of the most overvalued players in early Best Ball ADP. Now, he’s just a normal level of overvalued. Even with easily the best receiving trio in the league to throw to, I think Stroud will be hard-pressed to return value at his QB4 ADP. It would take a record-breaking season through the air for him to surpass the three dual-threat monsters ahead of him, and while that is certainly within his range of outcomes, I wouldn’t bet on it. After all, even drafting Stroud at QB4 is betting on a step forward. Even after we generously remove the Jets game, in which he played 86% of snaps and managed just 3.6 fantasy points before exiting with a concussion, he was the QB6 in PPG last year. I think Stroud would be much more at home next to guys like Dak Prescott (who outscored him last year) and Joe Burrow (who outscored him last year when healthy) than he is right behind the big three of Jackson, Allen, and Hurts. That would land him in the QB7-QB9 range, still solidly a QB1, but by no means an elite option.
Running Back
Devin Singletary
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 139.3; RB30
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 8.7; RB40
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Started: 8
- Points Per Game Started: 12.1; RB22
Singletary’s 2023 season was a rollercoaster. He came into the year as the clear backup to Dameon Pierce and averaged just 26.1 yards on 7.0 carries over the Texans’ first eight games. However, he was much more efficient with his carries than Pierce was (although that isn’t saying much) and maintained a limited receiving role. When Pierce missed time with an injury, Singletary exploded, posting back-to-back top-five fantasy weeks on 30 and 22 carries … but then he returned to flex status when Pierce came back healthy. Finally, the Texans realized near the end of the year that Singletary was their best back, giving him a lead role over the last four weeks of the season and in the playoffs. They should have done it sooner. Singletary was very effective in his first year in Houston, ranking 18th among 50 qualified RBs in yards created, seventh in relative yards per carry (slightly inflated because it’s relative to Pierce’s terrible season), and 19th in PFF Rush Grade. He also showed some ability as a receiver out of the backfield, averaging over three targets per game in his starts (including the Texans’ two playoff games).
Looking for a take on new Texan Joe Mixon? Check out the Bengals edition of this article!
Takeaway
Singletary is now in New York with the Giants, where he is being drafted as the RB35. In some ways, this landing spot isn’t ideal. Singletary thrived running zone concepts for the Texans, while the Giants ran zone concepts just 45% of the time, 21st in the NFL. Singletary took advantage of the passing threat provided by Stroud, while the Giants will either be starting Daniel Jones or a rookie quarterback (maybe they’re the next C.J. Stroud!). On the other hand, volume is king, and Singletary is the only name of note on the Giants’ RB depth chart. Of course, that makes the Giants a threat to draft a running back in the NFL Draft, and that is the big question mark remaining in Singletary’s profile. If they don’t add significant competition, Singletary should finish as a high-end RB3, at least, on volume alone, making him a smash pick at RB35. But if they do, he would suddenly be a non-elite back in a committee on what projects to be one of the league’s worst offenses … not great. For my money, I think there’s a higher chance than many are anticipating that Singletary holds on to the lead role in this offense. He was efficient last year with the Texans, and the Giants aren’t in a position to be spending priority draft capital on a running back after having just signed Singletary in free agency. With that in mind, I’m happy taking him at RB35 in ADP, if not slightly higher.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 190.4; WR17
- Games Played: 14
- Points Per Game: 13.6; WR13
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 12
- Points Per Full Game: 14.7; WR9
Nico Collins’ 2023 was awesome, no matter how you slice it. He ranked as a top-five WR in the league in each of PFF Grade (tied for fourth), yards per route run (second), and ESPN’s WR Tracking Metrics (third). With that in mind, his WR9 ranking in points per full game is almost disappointing. This can be explained by the facts that Collins ranked “only” 13th in targets per route run and 14th in air yards per route run while also consistently landing below an 80% snap share. Those first numbers point to one potential criticism of Collins’ season: He wasn’t necessarily the Texans’ top target, as third-round rookie Tank Dell also had a very productive year (when he was healthy). However, if we look at the eight healthy games the two shared, Collins led the rookie in targets (63 to 56) and fantasy points (119.6 to 114.6). For Collins, that represents 15.0 fantasy points on 7.9 targets per game, actually higher than his averages in his four healthy regular-season games without Dell (14.1 PPG on 7.5 targets).
Takeaway
Of course, everything I just said about Collins being able to coexist with Dell must now be taken with a huge grain of salt with Stefon Diggs added to the mix. However, that is being accounted for in his ADP. When news of the Diggs trade first dropped, I said that Collins’ ADP (then WR9) was too high given his new situation, comparing him to another hyper-talented WR on a crowded offense in Brandon Aiyuk. But now, Collins is being selected as the WR13 … right behind Aiyuk (and right ahead of Diggs, who is being overdrafted, in my opinion). That is a much more fair price for Collins. He will probably have more dud games than you’d hope for from a true WR1, but he should still finish the season as a high-end WR2 or low-end WR1.
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Tank Dell
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 141.5; WR36
- Games Played: 11
- Points Per Game: 12.9; WR16
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 8
- Points Per Full Game: 14.9; WR8
That’s right, if you look just at Tank’s healthy games, he actually outscored Collins, ranking as a top-10 fantasy receiver. That’s not bad for a 5’8″, 165-lb third-round rookie. And despite many speculating that his size would limit him to a slot-specialist role in the NFL, Dell ran 70.1% of his routes lined up outside. While his advanced metrics aren’t quite as eye-popping as those of his veteran teammate, Dell still ranked 14th in yards per route run and 15th in PFF Receiving Grade. He also ranked 16th among 96 qualified receivers with a 14.4-yard ADOT — the little guy was a big-play threat.
Takeaway
Unfortunately, with this many mouths to feed on a single offense, something has to give (unless Stroud does have that mind-blowing season I mentioned). And I’m already on record predicting that Dell will be the receiver who loses the most out of this star-studded trio. Diggs has made his thoughts on being a WR3 clear, and Collins is simply too good to take off the field. That will likely leave Dell on the sideline when the Texans are in two-receiver sets. And the Texans had three or more WRs for just 73.3% of their dropbacks, 21st in the league. Potentially losing over a quarter of his maximum possible routes per game just to scheme is not good at all for Dell’s fantasy value. He’ll still have his fair share of big games, but it will likely be a massive headache to roster him in managed leagues. If I stick with my analogy to the 49ers’ offense, Dell will be George Kittle … but his duds in your WR2 slot will hurt far more than Kittle’s off days as a tight end. I wouldn’t touch Dell until closer to WR36 than his current WR26 ADP.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 114.3; TE11
- Games Played: 14
- Points Per Game: 8.2; TE9
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 13
- Points Per Full Game: 8.7; TE8
Schultz was lucky that his first year in Houston also happened to be C.J. Stroud’s first year as a Texan. The rookie quarterback’s ascendence allowed him to continue his career trend of turning good-not-great receiving ability into TE1 fantasy seasons. Schultz ranked as just a borderline top-12 TE in most efficiency metrics: 11th in PFF Receiving Grade, 13th in yards per route run, 10th in targets per route run, and 12th in yards per reception. Luckily, the Texans’ offensive efficiency and volume meant he ranked 10th in total targets, sixth in red zone targets, and tied for fifth in touchdowns despite missing multiple games. But Schultz’s profile also has a few big red flags: Among the 24 most-targeted tight ends (aka all the fantasy-relevant ones), Schultz ranked seventh in pass-block rate and fourth in the percentage of his routes that came from in line. He also saw far less volume when both Collins and Dell were healthy: 4.7 targets per game compared to 7.0 targets per game when one or both were injured.
Takeaway
I know I just said Tank Dell was the loser from Diggs’ arrival, but Schultz is actually the biggest loser. A good rule of thumb to use for tight ends is that true fantasy difference-makers will be among the top two receiving targets on their team. A third target role on a good, condensed offense can allow a tight end to be a backend TE1 (as Schultz was last year, with some help with injuries to Dell/Collins). But I can’t think of a single tight end who was fantasy-relevant as their team’s fourth target, and that’s what Schultz is going to be. We already saw his volume drastically decrease when both Dell and Collins were healthy last season, the addition of Diggs will just make things worse. I’m going absolutely nowhere near him at TE13 in current ADP.
