Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 1:05 p.m. EST
The Steelers were able to move the ball effectively last week vs. a leaky Packer run defense, but this week they face a stout Cleveland run defense. Both running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are priced cheap in DFS, but I am avoiding them. In fact, I am avoiding the entire Steeler offense in DFS and Seasonal leagues if I can. QB Kenny Pickett isn’t lighting the world on fire, and I can’t trust the passing offense enough to play either WR Diontae Johnson or WR George Pickens. The Browns’ defense should be considered and will be in several of my lineups.
QB Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, and the starter is Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I hate to say it, but I have to play him in a lineup or two. His price is so cheap and the Steeler pass defense isn’t very good. Can he throw for 200 yards and two touchdowns? Thompson-Robinson also has the ability to run the football as well, and who knows, maybe he can get 50 yards and a TD. WR Amari Cooper has a great matchup here and a solid price, but can he get the ball? I think his ownership will be low, which may make him viable in a Browns stack or two. TE David Njoku has a tough matchup on paper, but he could be the security blanket for a rookie quarterback. RB Jerome Ford has been getting the volume but not the workload at the goal line as RB Kareem Hunt has been getting those touches. I think Ford is the more viable play this week; if the Browns can build a lead, I think he will get 20+ touches, and volume is king. The Steelers’ defense also gets a boost with the change at quarterback, as they can create a turnover or two.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers 1:05 p.m. EST
Dallas stacks have been making DFS players tons of cash for the past three weeks. There is a chance they could keep it going here. The concern is that they will shut it down if they get a big lead but they were throwing the ball with their starters late in the third quarter up four touchdowns so it’s pedal to the metal. The Panthers’ defense is much worse against the run than the pass. Unfortunately, RB Tony Pollard has been underwhelming in great matchups this entire season. He looks a step slower than he did a season ago, but his price has dropped and is worth a lineup or two. Backup RB Rico Dowdle shows more burst and looks like the better back, but can you depend on him getting volume? As mentioned, the Panthers have been better against the pass, but they haven’t faced an attack that has been firing on all cylinders. I do not think QB Dak Prescott has another gaudy game here, but I thought that last week, which cost me thousands of dollars as I had all the other pieces. WR CeeDee Lamb has been the best fantasy receiver over the past month, but his price tag has skyrocketed. I am going to fade him for the most part but I am fully aware that decision could bite me. I do like WR Brandin Cooks as he had a breakout game vs. the Giants and his price is still a bargain. Let’s just hope his production becomes a trend and not an anomaly. TE Jake Ferguson has been steady and has scored a TD in three straight games. I think it is unlikely he scores here but I will play him to some degree. I think there are better options at tight end on this slate.
As for the Carolina side, I have no interest. I don’t think RB Chuba Hubbard or RB Miles Sanders can win you a tournament. I think you could make a case for WR Adam Thielen because he has been the go-to guy for QB Bryce Young. He also can rack up a bunch of passes in garbage time if the Cowboys have a big lead. If you only play a handful of lineups then I would pass, but if you play 10 or more, I would add him in a lineup or two as he has less than 3% projected ownership. The Cowboys’ defense does look tasty here, but with them comes projected ownership of more than 20%.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 1:05 p.m. EST
QB Justin Fields will return, which should give the Bears’ passing game a needed boost vs. a bad Lion pass defense. WR D.J. Moore should be a great play as he should get open against a Lion secondary that has been torched. WR Darnell Mooney is sneaky as I can see a scenario where he gets a few catches and a touchdown. TE Cole Kmet could be the best value tight end on the board as the Lions give up chunks to that position. I will be avoiding the Bears’ running game as the Lions stop the run and I also expect the Bears to be playing from behind.
The Lions’ offense is firing on all cylinders, and I can make a case for just about every weapon they have, which makes them difficult. You know they are going to score, but who will lead the way? First, QB Jared Goff has been excellent, and I expect the Lions to exploit the Bears’ secondary as they are very good against the run. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-five receiver with a high floor. He hasn’t scored less than 16 fantasy points all season. TE Sam LaPorta was a little disappointing last week but could easily bounce back here. WR Jameson Williams is the deep threat, but he will need a touchdown to be relevant, as he isn’t getting enough volume. I am leery about playing RB David Montgomery as the Bears are solid against the run, but this is a revenge game and Monty looks explosive. RB Jahmyr Gibbs is dynamic and can rack up fantasy points in no time at all. I expect the Lions to score close to 30 points, so I will be stacking them in many different ways. I like Goff, LaPorta, and St. Brown stacks the best.
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers 1:05 p.m. EST
The Chargers seem to lose the big games late no matter who their coach is. What’s nice about the Chargers, though, is their defense isn’t very good and they are often in shootouts, increasing their fantasy production. They may want to slow it down vs. Green Bay as I think they need to run to win. RB Austin Ekeler is in a smash spot, and I fully expect him to reach over 20 fantasy points. The Packer pass defense is solid and WR Keenan Allen’s price tag is starting to get extremely expensive. This isn’t the matchup for me so he is a GPP fade along with QB Justin Herbert. It’s Ekeler and that’s about it on the Charger side.
As for the Packers, Jordan Love can make a few throws, and he does have an outstanding matchup here vs. a very bad Charger pass defense, making Packer stacks viable. I like WR Jayden Reed, as he is dirt cheap and has broken double-digits in three out of the past four weeks. The rookie could just keep getting better and better. WR Romeo Doubs is consistent, but he hasn’t done enough to take down a tournament. WR Christian Watson has the most upside but he’s been very disappointing as he struggles to catch the football. Rookie TE Luke Musgrave is in a smash spot and I will play him in 25% of my lineups. Running backs A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones also have smash spots here but the shared volume kills their DFS value. Anyway, I think the Packers may want to get Love cooking here to settle down an impatient fan base, making him a good sneaky play.
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans 1:05 p.m. EST
QB Kyler Murray is back and trust me, he is elusive and can run like he did before his season-ending injury from a year ago. You wouldn’t even notice that he was injured, and for that reason he is my favorite QB on the slate. The Texans have been giving up big-time passing yards and I think the Cardinals will be playing from behind. He is always a threat to score and could put up 50+ rushing yards and 250+ passing yards. TE Trey McBride has been solid, scoring over 24 fantasy points in two of his last three games. The Texans are terrible vs. the tight end, so the matchup is in his favor and he is my favorite tight end on the slate. I do believe a receiver will step up and I point to Rondale Moore as he had eight targets last week. I expect WR Marquise Brown to see a lot of CB Derek Stingley Jr., so Moore may see consistent volume. Also, WR Michael Wilson is a GPP flyer, as he may find cracks in that secondary. RB James Conner is also back and he looks fast without any limitations. He was just bottled up a bit last week vs. a stout Falcon defense. Look for Conner to be a huge bargain as I think he reaches the end zone and will be involved a bit in the passing game.
We told you the Houston Texans’ offense would be better this season, but this is insane. They just rolled up 580 yards of offense on a Bengals defense that had been playing better. This coming a week after racking up almost 500 yards of offense on the Buccaneers. QB C.J. Stroud just has it. You can see his ability to make all the throws, and his confidence keeps growing. His price has crept up a little bit, but this could be one of those shoot-out games where you need the Texan stack or even a full game stack to take down a tournament. The only problem is picking the right combination of his many weapons. Last week they were missing WR Nico Collins which makes the numbers even more impressive. He is limited in practice, but I do expect he plays and will be a solid option. WR Tank Dell has also been much better than expected and would be a lock if Collins were out. TE Dalton Schultz was dealing with an injury but is now back to practicing in full. He is always worth consideration as he gets targets. WR Noah Brown hasn’t practiced yet this week and is looking more and more like he will be out. I think he is a fade even if he does play, as I think we are chasing points. The biggest bargain though goes to RB Devin Singletary. It is expected that RB Dameon Pierce will miss his third straight week, leaving Singletary to get all the volume. He had 30 carries last week and would 5x value vs. a poor Cardinal run defense with that same type of volume. Singletary will be in most of my lineups that do not have Stroud passing stacks.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:05 p.m. EST
The Titans’ offense has regressed rapidly. They can’t run the ball like they would like to and they don’t have enough playmakers in the passing game. I like QB Will Levis’ arm and moxie but besides that game against Atlanta when WR DeAndre Hopkins caught two long touchdowns, the passing game just isn’t there. Speaking of Hopkins, he is worth a look as I do expect the Titans to play from behind, but he has been underwhelming. RB Derrick Henry still has juice, but this is not a good matchup. Let’s keep an eye on him going forward though, as the schedule eases up a bit.
The Jaguar offense has also regressed, or did it ever really get going? This is a huge game for them, and they better get jump-started because they have four tough opponents after this week. I think it must start with RB Travis Etienne. He has been their bell cow, and I would expect him to get back into the end zone. QB Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming and I will be avoiding him here even though it is a good match-up. There is only one player I like in the passing game and that is WR Christian Kirk, who has been their most consistent receiver. WR Calvin Ridley is missing somewhere, and TE Evan Engram has a very tough matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins 1:05 p.m. EST
The Raiders’ game plan has been fairly easy to follow. Give the ball to RB Josh Jacobs over and over, and then target WR Davante Adams. Although this week may be much different. They have been playing with fourth-quarter leads the past two weeks, and that will be unlikely this week as huge underdogs in Miami. I expect them to play from behind most of the game. Not to say that they won’t feed Jacobs, as I am sure they will try to keep Miami off the field, but the game script is going to determine how many touches he gets. Although he is a solid pass catcher, we just haven’t seen that in several weeks because there was no need for it. Davante Adams is always a play as he gets a high volume of targets. He will see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, though, which could make WR Jakobi Meyers a play again. TE Michael Mayer is in a good spot, but I don’t think he can do enough to win a tournament.
The Miami offense is much like the Lions’ offense. It is highly potent with a handful of players who can produce. I think WR Tyreek Hill is an obvious choice and I think he can get 25+ here no matter what the Raider pass defense ranks. Their schedule has been littered with bottom-tier quarterbacks to this point. QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle are also solid options and can be used in a stack with or without Hill. The biggest question, though is the running game. The matchup is excellent against a bad Raiders run defense, but who is getting the volume? I think Raheem Mostert is going to be the guy. He has been limited in practice, but he always is and produces big-time results. I know De’Von Achane is coming back off IR this week, but he will most likely be eased into action. I can’t see him getting more than 10 touches. What about Jeff Wilson? He will get touches, too; it will be interesting to see how the Dolphins split this workload.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders 1:05 p.m. EST
This is a rematch from Week 7 when the Giants pulled out the victory. Unfortunately, the Giants’ offense has changed dramatically since then. No more QB Tyrod Taylor or TE Darren Waller, leaving the only real offensive threat being RB Saquon Barkley. He can’t do it all, and I have no doubt that Washington will stack the box as they will not respect the Giant passing game led by QB Tommy DeVito. I can make a case to play Barkey, as he should get fed the ball, but this offense is a disaster. Washington will be the defense I pivot to over the Cowboys.
The Commanders have become a pass-first offense led by QB Sam Howell, who has averaged 28 fantasy points over his last three games. Maybe they don’t have to do as much passing against the Giants, but considering Howell has had 40+ passing attempts in six out of his last seven games, it’s a safe bet he will do it Sunday. Despite the pass-first offense, there really isn’t any receiver who has emerged as a consistent must-play option. WR Terry McLaurin is a nice player but doesn’t have those huge games. WR Jahan Dotson has had one big game but a lot of duds including zero catches last week. TE Logan Thomas has a tough matchup and should be avoided. RB Brian Robinson had a huge week catching the ball with six receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown but that was an anomaly and I don’t see it happening again. I would love to play Robinson but he doesn’t get enough rushing attempts so I would have to rely on the catches. I think the way to play it, is to play Howell by himself and watch him spread the ball around.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers 4:05 p.m. EST
Tampa came through for me last week as I had RB Rachaad White and WR Mike Evans rated high. This week is much different, as I think Tampa is in a bad spot. They can’t fall behind in this game, as their offensive line will not hold up vs. the 49ers’ pass rush. Expect quick passes and dump-offs, making White the only player I like in this offense. Saying that, he is going to have to catch seven passes and score a touchdown to take down a tournament. He isn’t going to have many running lanes vs. the stout 49er run defense. WR Mike Evans is always worth a look, and if Baker Mayfield does have time, Evans will do well. WR Chris Godwin needs too much volume and isn’t fantasy-viable anymore. TE Cade Otton’s matchup is just too tough, leaving White and Evans the only two I would consider.
On the 49er side, I really like QB Brock Purdy as I think he can throw for close to 300 yards and three touchdowns vs. a bad Tampa secondary. The only question is to whom? He has so many weapons that nobody really stands out, so playing him naked and not stacked may be the way to play him. RB Christian McCaffrey is his favorite target and makes the most sense to stack. The problem is McCaffrey’s price tag is the highest on the slate, so he better have eight catches and a touchdown. Tampa is tough to run against, so I am not expecting a bunch of rushing yards for him. Receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are very good players, but they cancel each other out a bit. Neither one is dominant over the other, meaning they each get about 13-18 points which isn’t enough to take down a tournament. TE George Kittle is in a great spot here and has 20+ fantasy points in two straight games, but that has inflated his price. Still, he is worth a look because he has such a high ceiling.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills 4:25 p.m. EST
The Jets’ offense offers very little for fantasy football. I do like RB Breece Hall a little, but I don’t know if he will do enough to take down a tournament. He would have to reach 100 yards and score a touchdown. That may be difficult to do because Buffalo won’t respect the passing game and will stack the box. He is going to have to break a long run like he did the first time these two teams met. The passing game is a complete pass for me.
The Bills enter Week 11 with a new offensive coordinator. Gone is Ken Dorsey, and in comes Joe Brady. I would expect the Bills to run the football a little bit more and try to make the game easier for QB Josh Allen. If you noticed on Monday Night, the Bills’ running backs had 15 carries on their three touchdown drives and only six carries on the other eight possessions. Their backs averaged over eight yards per carry but only had 21 rushing attempts, which is mind-boggling. This week, I expect RB James Cook to be more involved, especially since the Jets are very good against the pass. His ownership will be low, and for that reason, I will insert him in a few lineups. The other player I like is TE Dalton Kincaid. He has 15+ fantasy points in four straight games. He should see plenty of targets as the receivers will face very good coverage. You could try a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs stack in one lineup to see if you can get two star players to catch lightning in a bottle only because their ownership is less than 4%.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams 4:25 p.m. EST
This is a rematch from Week 1 and you know Seattle has nothing but revenge on their minds. The problem I have is trying to sort out the Seattle offense. QB Geno Smith has been bland to say the least, but did put up good numbers last week. He is cheap enough to have him in a lineup or two, as the Seahawks are projected to score 23 points. I have a tendency to always want to play D.K. Metcalf, and that is something I have to get out of my head. He is a great player but, for some reason, isn’t producing enough points to take down a tournament. He gets the best opposing teams’ coverage, and Smith misses him on a lot of passes. WR Tyler Lockett seems to be the more viable option as he can put up 20+ point games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be a great player and would be a lock play if Lockett, who is dealing with injury, does not play. RB Kenneth Walker just can’t get much going on the ground, and that’s not his fault. The offensive line just isn’t getting enough push. He couldn’t break 20 points last week even though he caught a 64-yard TD pass, so I don’t think I can play him here.
Matthew Stafford is back this week, which makes receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua viable again. Kupp is moderately priced for a player of his status. He can smash value on a good day. I would expect him to see plenty of targets. Nacua decimated Seattle in Week 1, and I think he can do it again with all the attention going towards Kupp. His price is relatively high, which will keep ownership down. A passing stack may be in order here, as this game could shoot out. There is nobody I like in the running game, as it’s a split backfield between Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman, even though Henderson is the much better back in my opinion.
