The regular season is finally behind us, and now we can get down to the real business at hand. The annual 14-team tournament to decide this year’s Super Bowl Champion begins with a pair of NFC matchups this Saturday, followed by three games on Sunday. The final game of Round 1 will be played on Monday night between the Texans and Steelers, giving Aaron Rodgers and Steelers fans an extra day to recover from Sunday night’s heart-stopping win over the Ravens.
This should be a fun weekend of football, with three of the six home teams currently sitting as underdogs, especially considering how this entire tournament feels like it’s anybody’s to win. It’s all going to come down to which teams can get hot at the right time and avoid critical mistakes, which can ultimately be the difference between victory and defeat. Let’s get right into each matchup and see what we can expect for this year’s Wildcard Weekend.
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (+10, 46.5)
It’s not quite as rare as it used to be for a team with a losing record to make the playoffs. We’ve seen it happen twice this decade, with Tampa (2022) and Washington (2020) both sneaking into the postseason only to be immediately dispatched in the first round. The last time a team with a losing record made the postseason and actually won a playoff game was back in 2014, and that was the same Carolina Panthers. Yep, the Ron Rivera-led Panthers stumbled into the playoffs at 7-8-1 and took down the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals. So, anything is possible, right?
Well, sure, maybe, but that Arizona team was hobbled after losing both Carson Palmer and his backup, Drew Stanton, so they lost that game with the mighty Ryan Lindley under center. Barring an injury to both Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo in practice this week, Carolina is going to have to figure out another path to victory. What Dave Canales will point to as he motivates his team this week is the fact that the Panthers beat these same Rams back in Week 13 of the regular season. Moreover, the Rams did struggle a bit on the road this year, finishing 5-4 away from SoFi Stadium, while dominating opponents at home to the tune of a 7-1 record. So yes, anything is possible. While it might sound like I’m making a case for Carolina to pull off the upset here, I just can’t see that happening. When Carolina won back in November, they did so by controlling the clock and forcing turnovers. When you look back at that game now and see that the Rams were able to average over 7 yards per carry on the ground, you have to wonder why on Earth they would abandon the run.
It all came down to LA turning the ball over 3 times, while Carolina played a mistake-free game. That being said, the final margin was just three points. The bottom line is that the first time around, Carolina played an almost perfect game and only managed to squeak out a narrow win. I can’t see lightning striking twice, and while it would make for a great story, the Panthers aren’t going to win this game. The spread is fairly healthy, and it would be easy enough to say that the Rams will win but won’t cover, but I think this will be a blowout. Davante Adams will be back this week, giving Matthew Stafford his full complement of weapons, and I expect the Rams to use that Week 13 loss as motivation to keep their foot on the gas until the very end of the game. The Rams will roll in this one.
Rams 31 – Panthers 13
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1.5, 45.5)
I truly do love it when we get a division matchup in the playoffs. It’s great when two teams know each other intimately and have already squared off twice during the season. These teams had both of their head-to-head matchups toward the end of the regular season in weeks 14 and 16. In week 14, the Packers won at Lambeau Field 28-21, while in the Week 16 rematch, the Bears won by a score of 22-16 in front of the Soldier Field faithful. The more important piece of information is that in between those two games, the Packers lost Micah Parsons for the season in a game they also lost to the Broncos. In fact, that week 14 win over the Bears was the last time Green Bay has won a game this season. This defense just hasn’t been able to recover from that kind of loss.
Typically, you would think that if the Packers are going to win this game with a compromised defense, they would have to outscore Chicago in a shootout. While we did see San Francisco do just that a few weeks ago, it’s not going to be quite so easy with a weather forecast in the Windy City that has temperatures reaching as low as 11 degrees (-20 with the wind chill) with wind gusts of over 25 mph. This game is going to be a grind, and while both teams should be used to playing in frigid temperatures, this type of environment is extreme, and it’s going to come down to which team can run the ball more effectively and, more importantly, avoid turnovers. Both of these teams have been shaky against the run as of late, as we saw them combine for 340+ rushing yards the last time they met head-to-head. Since that game, the Bears allowed both the 49ers and the Lions to run all over them, while the Packers were absolutely shredded by Baltimore in week 17. We’ll give them a pass on week 18, as they rested everybody they could since they were already locked into the 7 seed.
That very well may be the difference in this game, as Josh Jacobs is going to be the key to Green Bay’s success this week. The fact that he was able to rest last week as a “healthy scratch” very well may be the difference in this game. The key to Chicago’s success this Saturday will come down to getting an early lead and forcing Jordan Love and the Packers offense to try to open things up. The Bear defense led the league in combined takeaways, and there will be plenty of opportunities for them in these conditions, and that ultimately will be the difference in this game. This game is basically a coin flip, but I’m taking the Bears to get that early lead in front of their home crowd and win both the turnover battle and the game. Considering the conditions, I’d be more apt to throw a few sheckles on the under rather than mess with choosing the winner.
Bears 20 – Packers 19
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 52.5)
The AFC finally joins the party with the third game of the weekend, the first game on Sunday afternoon. This game has me intrigued because it will go a long way toward telling us whether the NFL is truly going in a new direction or whether this year is finally going to be Buffalo’s year. Josh Allen and the Bills are free from having to deal with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, so it’s possible the road has been paved for them to go all the way.
Sure, they will have to do it on the road, but deep down, they might actually prefer the role of underdog. At least they won’t have to worry about trying to bribe their fans with a few $20 bills and some hot dogs to come down and shovel the stadium before their games. That doesn’t mean it will be easy, but they have a clear advantage over the rest of the field in their combination of talent and playoff experience. The three teams that made it back to the playoffs from the 2024 season in the AFC were all one-and-done in last year’s playoffs. That’s all very well and good, but this is a new year, and these less-experienced teams might just be too young and dumb to care what the Buffalo resume looks like. The Jaguars had an amazing season after finishing last year at 4-13. Liam Coen not only seems to have unlocked Trevor Lawrence but has also instilled a winning culture in this locker room that hasn’t been seen since the days of Tom Coughlin.
The Jags are on the right path, but much like last year’s crop of newcomers in the AFC, I think they will have to wait a year to get to the second round. The Bills have Josh Allen and the league’s top pass defense, and that’s going to be enough to pull out this win. The key will be getting out to a lead early and taking the run game away from Jacksonville. I don’t know if this Buffalo team is really built to go all the way, but they are good enough to get a win in the first round. I’m taking the Bills and laying the points.
Bills 26 – Jacksonville 23
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 44.5)
The last time we saw these two teams lock horns in the playoffs, everything that could go wrong did for the 49ers. That was three years ago, and I don’t anticipate either team losing both of their quarterbacks in the first half of this game. Thankfully, the league learned from that disaster and implemented the “emergency QB” rule, allowing teams to dress a third option without it counting against their active 53-man roster.
While nobody wants to see Sam Howell or Adrian Martinez play this Sunday, it would be a heck of a lot better than what we saw in that game three years ago. This matchup is going to be very interesting, since most of the country outside of Philly fully believes that the Eagles are a shell of the team that won the Super Bowl last year. While they may not have put up quite the same numbers as last year’s team, they still managed to win their division easily and will host a first-round playoff game, just as they did last year. The 49ers may have had a better record, but I don’t think they match up very well at all with this Eagles team. With the expected return of Lane Johnson, the Eagles will be able to run the ball on the 49ers, who have struggled since they lost Fred Warner and Nick Bosa earlier this season.
The Philly offensive line has a clear advantage over Frisco’s front 7, and with the expected return of Jalen Carter to their defense, they should be able to at least slow down Christian McCaffrey, even with Trent Williams back on their O-line. This should be an exciting game, and the winner, as of now, would be my pick to go all the way to the Super Bowl. I’m going with the team that’s played more playoff games over the last two years than anybody else in this year’s tournament.
Eagles 29 – 49ers 24
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5, 46.5)
It must be so nice to be a football fan in LA. Not that the majority of left coasters even care, but having two teams in this year’s playoffs AND amazing weather, while in New York we have nothing but cold weather and the draft to look forward to, is just downright depressing. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they won’t get to play in that amazing weather, as they will have to travel across the country to face the Pats in what looks like it will be cold and possibly wet conditions. The Patriots and Jaguars are the two new faces on the AFC side of this year’s playoff bracket, and both teams have had amazing seasons under new head coaches after finishing last year with identical 4-13 records. The other thing these two teams have in common is that they were able to win their respective divisions without the services of their top draft picks, as both Travis Hunter and Will Campbell were placed on IR with knee injuries.
The difference in New England is that they will be getting their stud left tackle back for the playoffs. That’s more than the Chargers can say, as they will have to continue to press on without both of their top blockers, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. We could see the difference in the Chargers after Alt went down initially in their week 3 contest. The Bolts won their first 3 games but lost 2 of their next 3 games without their star tackle before he returned in week 7. Overall, on the season, their record with Alt in the lineup was 5-1, but just 6-5 without him. As it turns out, blocking matters. The Patriots, for their part, have something to prove here, as despite their impressive 14-3 record, they finished the season just 1-2 against teams with winning records. They also suffered all three of their losses this year in front of their home crowd, while going undefeated on the road. Drake Maye had an amazing season, but it will all be for naught if they are one-and-done in this year’s playoffs.
While I started this write-up with the obvious comparisons between the Pats and the Jaguars, I don’t think this Charger team will be able to capitalize on their previous playoff experience to help them win this game. Both teams have very good defenses, so I’m expecting a lower-scoring affair, but the Pats have just been much better running the ball lately. Rhomandre Stevenson and Treveyon Henderson give New England a 1-2 punch out of the backfield that will keep the pressure off of Maye. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert will be running for his life for four quarters behind an offensive line that was tied for second in the league for most sacks allowed. I’m taking the Patriots in this one.
Patriots 24 – Chargers 20
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, 39.5)
Well, they made it. The Steelers somehow made it to the playoffs despite most of us outside Western Pennsylvania not believing it could happen. The Ravens were the Vegas favorites to win the AFC North all season, even after losing 5 of their first 6 games and sitting three games behind the Steelers. It seemed like it was all going to come to fruition for Baltimore when they beat the Packers with Tyler Huntley under center, while Pittsburgh somehow lost to the Browns in Week 17, setting up a “win and in” showdown on Sunday night. Even the most devout Steeler fan had to think their season was over as Tyler Loop lined up for a game-winning field goal in the waning seconds, yet here we are. Is the NFL scripted? No, that’s silly.
Are there divine or otherworldly powers at play helping a 42-year-old quarterback lead a team devoid of offensive weapons on a magical playoff run? I’m not so sure. As enthralling as last week’s game was, I still can’t get the previous game against the Browns out of my mind as Pittsburgh now prepares to take on the Texans, who have the best defense in the league. There just isn’t a scenario where I can see the Steelers winning this game. Even if they do somehow score more points, it would have to be because the Texans come out and lose it because of mental errors, penalties, and turnovers, rather than because of what Rodgers and his teammates are able to do. The Texans are the only other team outside the Bills that were in last year’s playoffs and won a postseason game.
They’ve been to this dance before, and they know what songs will be played. They are going to win this game and should do it handily. The Steelers can’t cover Nico Collins. They also won’t be able to cover Jayden Higgins. They also won’t be able to score more than 10 points unless T.J. Watt and friends can score two defensive touchdowns. The story was fun while it lasted, but it ends on Monday night. I still don’t love the fact that Houston can’t really run the ball when they need to, but that won’t be a factor this week.
Texans 23 – Steelers 9
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