TOP TIER:
In the top tier, there are five QBs…Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. In this group, there are only two Super Bowl winners, with one ascending (Hurts), and one seemingly starting his decline (Mahomes). Mahomes had an average year (mediocre by his standards)…and he was dominated in the Super Bowl by Hurts’ Eagles.
Burrow’s Bengals consistently underperform, and Jackson is a regular-season QB. But last year, Allen surpassed him, having the superior regular season, winning the league’s MVP. Even without a ton of offensive weapons last season, he managed to win the league’s top honor.
Statistically, his numbers were down, but he clearly matured to be a true field general. It was his first season since 2019 not to reach 4000 passing yards, and it was his second consecutive season not reaching 30 TDs. He had 40 combined TDs last year, which dropped from 44 in 2023. His major improvement was in protecting the ball. Coming off a career high of 18 interceptions in 2023, he reduced it by two-thirds, only throwing six last season.
And for the most part, Allen hasn’t had the most weapons at his disposal. In the off-season, they added three WRs for Allen to work with. They added Josh Palmer, Elijah Moore, and Laviska Shenault. Between these additions, the weak AFC East, and another year of growth, Allen will again win the AFC MVP award and finally get to the Super Bowl. He is the Sweet Spot QB of the top tier.
2021 DRAFT CLASS:
This is a class that saw eight QBs come off the board in the first three rounds. By all accounts, it was supposed to be a fantastic draft, led by Trevor Lawrence. Now, five seasons later, only two QBs are starters. Lawrence and Josh Fields. The consensus would say that Lawrence is the sweet spot between the two.
But, in looking at their career stats, there isn’t much difference, and I’m here to say, I like Fields more this year. Lawrence’s career W-L record is only 22-38, winning 36.6% of his games. Fields’ is 14-30, winning 31.8%. Lawrence’s career completion percentage is 63.3%, while Fields’ is 61.1%. Lawrence’s total yardage is 14,898, averaging 248.3 yds per game. Fields’ total is 10,281 yds, averaging 233.8 per game. Lawrence has a TD-INT ratio of 69-46, a 1.5 to 1 ratio. Fields’ numbers are nearly identical, 45-31, which is a 1.45 to 1 ratio. They’ve been the same QB. Being the no.1 pick has afforded Lawrence a longer leash; that is the only difference at this point. Between these two men, Fields is set up nicely to be the Sweet Spot QB in New York.
2023 DRAFT:
The 2022 draft was uninspiring, but the 2023 draft saw QBs taken with the first three of the first four picks. Between Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson, Stroud has clearly had the best career thus far, although he did see some regression last year. Of these three QBs, Young is set up to be the Sweet Spot.
In his rookie year, he threw 11 TDs while throwing 10 interceptions. Last season, in two fewer games, he threw 15 TDs while only throwing nine picks. And last year, he added six rushing TDs. In his last 10 games of the season, he managed at least one TD per game. And in his last three games, he threw seven TDs while not throwing an interception.
Entering his third season, he is set to see a huge improvement, taking his game to the next level. If the last three games are any indication, his numbers will be eye-popping this season. A 3000-yard, 30 TD season is on the table. And if he utilizes his legs more, it will be a special season for the Panthers.
2024 DRAFT:
The 2024 draft still needs to shake out. The trend of QBs going off the board early continued in 2024, with six QBs taken in the first round. (Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix). Unlike many seasons, this draft class is actually showing promise.
Daniels had a monster season, and Nix was a pleasant surprise, with the Commanders and Broncos each making the playoffs. McCarthy was injured all season, while Maye and Penix became starters during the year. Of the bunch, Williams was the biggest disappointment, but only on a sliding scale. Because he was the no.1 pick in the draft, the expectations for him were through the roof. He managed to complete 62.5% of his passes while passing for 3541 YDs, with 20 TDs and only six interceptions.
For this draft batch, I’m going to mix it up a bit. Of these six QBs, there will be only one that will not hit the mark as a Sweet Spot QB this year…Drake Maye. He started 12 games last season, and the team’s record in these games was only 3-9…but of those three wins, he only finished one of them. He left one game, injured, and only played on the first possession of the last game of the year…a game that saw backup QB Joe Milton defeat the Bills, costing the Pats the no.1 pick in this year’s draft. Maybe if Maye had played the whole game, they would have lost.
Maye has a history of throwing picks and, more alarmingly, losing the football. Last season, he had 10 interceptions and fumbled the ball nine times. Other than Stefon Diggs, who most likely won’t even be ready on Opening Day, the team is about the same on offense, with no game-changing weapons.
This draft class will produce the next batch of great QBs. But of the six of these young men drafted, there is a clear outlier as to who won’t ever hit the Sweet Spot…Drake Maye.
