Depending on the sport, this round is called different things. In the NCAA basketball tournament, it’s called The Elite Eight. In tennis, it’s called the quarterfinals or round of eight. In the NFL, this is the Divisional Round for the right to play in the AFC and NFC Championship games.
It’s hard to believe, but only seven games in the 2024 NFL season will culminate with the Superbowl Champion. But before we get there, there are four intriguing games this week. Three teams have never won the Superbowl: the Bills, Texans, and Lions…and the Texans and Lions have never even gotten there. Technically, either have the Commanders, but the Redskins have won three Superbowls.
As they say, this is for fun and amusement only. There is a reason that Las Vegas is still standing and building more casinos with more hotel rooms…the house always wins.
With that in mind, bet what you can afford to risk. These are the wagers I’ll be making this week:
SATURDAY GAMES:
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: -8.5, o/u 41.5…The Chiefs play outdoors at Arrowhead, so the weather must be considered first. By all accounts, Kansas City will be mild at game time. It will be cold, in the teens to low 20s, and the wind will make it feel colder. But the wind won’t be strong enough to be a factor for either QB.
I’d be a fool to take the Texans straight up in this game, and I’m not. However, the team had two major hiccups even during the New England Patriots Dynasty. In 2009, the Patriots lost to the Ravens at home 33-14. Then, in 2010, they again lost a home playoff game against the Jets 28-21. That season, the team had a 14-2 record. The Chiefs are 15-2 this year.
Although the Texans and CJ Stroud have had an uneven season, they can score points. They have only scored 13 fewer points than the Chiefs this year. Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game. He should be able to contain Stroud a bit, but he won’t completely neutralize him.
This game’s final result will hinge on the availability of RB Joe Mixon. He has missed practice and is questionable about playing in Saturday’s game. If the ankle injury keeps him out of this game, and Stroud is needed to pass 40 or more times, the Chiefs will win going away. It’s the playoffs and my guess is Mixon will give it a go. If he laces them up and is at least somewhat productive, the Texans will keep this within a TD…Final Score: Kansas City 24-17.
The one intriguing prop bet is Travis Kelce’s receiving yds. It’s the playoffs, which means it’s Mahomes to Kelce-time. Kelce is -118 to get over 50 receiving yds, which is a number he should get to.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: -9.5, o/u 55.5…The Lions have averaged over 33 pts per game this year. In their own right, the Commanders have scored 28.5 pts per game, so this is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair…which is why the o/u is set at 55.5. Their defense is solid for all of the talk around the Lions offense. They’ve only given a tick over 20 pts per game.
The Commanders’ dynamic rookie, Jayden Daniels, has had a fantastic season, but at some point, the stage will be too big… I think this is that week. Detroit’s offense is so fast and dynamic that they can put up 10 or 14 pts in a hurry to make this a two-score game. It’s over once that happens, and the Commanders are forced to play from behind.
I can’t find a scenario where they hold the Lions to under 30 points. And unless you think the Commanders can compete at that level and outscore them, you have to lay the points. I love the Lions in this spot to show everyone that the Super Bowl goes through Ford Field this year. I see a dominant performance from the Lions’ offense. Final Score: Detroit 34-24.
SUNDAY GAMES:
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: -6.5, o/u 43.5…The Rams have the edge at coaching with Sean McVey. The Eagles have the edge at RB with Saquon Barkley. And at WR, I’d call it a draw, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs Devonta Smith and AJ Brown. At QB, the edge should go to Jalen Hurts over Matthew Stafford, but in a big game, I like Stafford.
This feels like a low-scoring affair, with the team that scores first prevailing. That is Philadelphia’s best chance, because the Rams are more equipped to play catch-up if they have to. And the weather appears to play a role on Sunday, with snow in the forecast. This feels like a slog of a game that should favor the Eagles, but I like the experience of the Rams here. In the biggest upset of the week…Final Score: Rams 21-20. I like the under enough to take that as well.
There a few prop bets I like in this game. With the weather conditions being lousy, Hurts will want to keep the ball in his hands in pivotal times of the game. To get to 20 pts, they’ll need to score two TDs. Both will be Hurts’ rushes. He’s +600 to score two TDs.
Matthew Stafford is +112 to pass for over 225 yds. Even with the weather, he’ll complete enough passes to reach it. Hurts is -113 to rush for over 40 yards…again, he’ll want the ball in his hands and rely on his legs more than Barkley’s. And in a similar vein, he’ll rely on short, conservative passes. Look for Dallas Goedert to gain over 50 yards at +180.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: +1.5, o/u 51.5…The final game of the week will end with a clash of the titans. This is the game everyone has been looking forward to this week. It pits the two top MVP candidates, in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Although I think that the award will go to Allen this season, I think Jackson and the Ravens will prevail in this game.
The Bills have beaten the Chiefs and the Lions this year but were destroyed by the Ravens 35-10. Granted, that game was in Baltimore, and this will be played on the frozen tundra of Buffalo, but it’s hard to see how a change of scenery will make up for 25 points. By game time, the weather will be in the low teens and feel like single digits with the wind chill factor…and snow is possible.
The Bills have won one more game, giving them home-field, and the two teams have nearly identical scoring statistics. While the two QBs are pretty much perfect football players, Derrick Henry will be the difference-maker in this game. You might be able to stop him for a quarter or even a half…but no team can stop this man for an entire game. He and Jackson feel like they are on a mission and nobody will get in their way.
As I said earlier, Las Vegas doesn’t lose, and they must know what they are doing, installing the Ravens as a 1.5 favorite on the road. So many people will see Buffalo getting pts and jump at them. Final Score: Ravens 27-24.
Regarding prop bets, I do like Allen to get a TD at +105. I also like Ravens TE Mark Andrews to catch a TD pass for +160. Unless the Ravens get down big early, I can’t see a scenario where Henry is held under 90 yards. He’s -140 to reach 90+. And even if they do, he’s their best weapon and can score a TD from anywhere on the field.
This would create a Championship round of Baltimore at Kansas City in the AFC and the Rams at the Lions. The whole country is pulling for Detroit to make it to New Orleans on Super Bowl Sunday. And one thing is certain, whatever the Superbowl matchup ultimately is, it should be a great game.
