Some see the glass as half full, while others see it as half empty. Depending on your perspective, the NFL season just ended…or, it just began. All 272 regular season games have been played. There are 13 playoff games yet to be played, culminating with the Superbowl.
All season I have put together a power ranking list, which had the Kansas City Chiefs at no.1 for most of the season. As teams were eliminated from the playoff race, they were eliminated from the power ranking. Going into the last week of the year, the list consisted of 17 teams. The three entering the week on the outside looking in, stayed there. Miami, Cincinnati, and Atlanta were all eliminated in wk.18.
The remaining 14 playoff teams are on this list. This list is based on how Las Vegas sees these teams heading into the playoffs. The ranking is based on the current Las Vegas odds for each of these teams to win the Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions +320
Kansas City Chiefs +370
Baltimore Ravens +550
Buffalo Bills +600
Philadelphia Eagles +650
Minnesota Vikings +1500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2100
Green Bay Packers +2400
Los Angeles Chargers +2800
Los Angeles Rams +3000
Washington Commanders +4000
Pittsburgh Steelers +8500
Denver Broncos +8500
Houston Texans +10000
It’s no surprise that Detroit and Kansas City have the lowest odds, they hold the No. 1 seed and byes in their conferences. Of the six games this weekend, two of the home teams have higher odds than the road team. The Rams are at home at sitting with 30/1 odds. The Vikings, who are their opponent this week, are sitting at only 15/1 to go all the way. The Chargers are only 28/1, while heading to Houston to play the Texans…who have the longest odds on the board, sitting at 100/1.
Odds are such a funny thing. Before the season started I was searching for a relative longshot to win the Superbowl. I settled on the Texans. At that time, they were sitting at 40/1. How is it possible that now that the season is over and they’ve made the dance, effectively eliminating over 50% of the league, their odds to win it all, have more than doubled? The only rationale is that as the no.4 seed, if they win this weekend, they will likely go to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in the divisional round…which is an extremely tall order. They haven’t been playing great, but they did win their division, and do have a home playoff game in the wildcard round.
Pittsburgh has to travel to Baltimore, and Denver has to go to Buffalo, yet their odds are each “only” 85/1. The Texans are a far better bet, with longer odds. The only way the Texans would be spared the Chiefs, would be if the lower-seeded Steelers or Broncos can prevail.
I think there’s a shot each of them can this week. They are each nearly double-digit underdogs, but each has a puncher’s chance. The Steelers always play the Ravens tough and, more often than not, come out on the winning side. I guarantee this is the one opening round that Jim Harbaugh did not want to face. I like taking a flyer on the Steelers at +440 in this game, and I really like them +9.5pts.
As far as the Broncos, they are young. And sometimes being young helps in big spots like this. Sometimes, you’re too young to know any better. They have a great coach in Sean Payton, who’s been there before. They have a dynamic defense, and they have an exciting QB with solid offensive weapons. And heading into the Superbowl, they needed the win…while Buffalo was playing cute in New England with nothing to play for. Their money line is +330.
If you take each dog, Broncos and Steelers, and one win, you get paid. A $100 bet on each dog will generate a $230 win if Denver wins, and $340 if Pittsburgh wins. If each wins, you’ll snag $770. If you make a $100 parlay with the two, you’ll win $2222. Although that’s unlikely, I definitely do like the Broncos +8.5pts.
In looking at the NFC, it’s tough to justify any team other than the Lions to get to the Super Bowl. Their potential opponents in the divisional round will be either the no.4 Rams, no.5 Vikings, no.6 Commanders, or no.7 Packers. Realistically, as much as I like the Packers, they have a really tough draw on the road heading to Philadelphia…especially without Christian Watson. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been in concussion protocol for the last few weeks and still hasn’t officially been cleared to play. If he ultimately can’t play, all bets are off. And I love the Packers here…but I anticipate Hurts playing.
If the Packers lose, but the Commanders can prevail against the Buccaneers, they’ll be heading to Detroit. Although I think they may very well defeat the Bucs, they won’t leave Detroit with a victory.
All season I have been praising the Los Angeles Rams, but for them to even get to the next round, they’ll have to beat the 14-3 Vikings and then probably the 15-2 Lions. Whether it’s in the divisional round or the Championship game, they’ll realistically have to beat both teams. It would be the greatest run in sports history. If anything, their 30/1 odds are way too low. They should be where the Texans are.
The only team in the NFC that will be able to go into Detroit and beat the Lions is the Eagles, assuming Hurts is healthy. At +650 to win the Superbowl, their odds aren’t high enough. They should be no better than 10/1. There are more upsets to be had in the AFC and the AFC representative to get to the Superbowl is wide open compared to the NFC. I can literally make an argument for any of the seven AFC teams to get there.
But for betting purposes, I go back to the Texans. At 100/1 to win it all, I can’t pass it up.
