Iconic Boston band The Cars had a chart-topping song in the ’80s titled “Shake It Up.” Boston’s best team, and defending NBA champion Celtics, are faced with whether or not to “shake it up.”
For mere mortals, they are doing just fine. They are the no.2 seed in the East, sitting with a 31-14 record. They are on pace to win 58 games this season. But they are only a .500 team over their last 20 games. That’s a quarter of the season and a large enough sample size to be concerned. When the season began, serious discussions were about them breaking 70 wins.
There are some real reasons for this swoon that aren’t just excuses:
Three of their starting five played in the Olympics, stretching their season beyond the finals.
The let-down effect: It’s not uncommon for a defending champion to experience a tough stretch the following year. Every team that faces them brings its best game.
Injuries: the team has faced some nagging injuries this year, most notably to Kristops Porzingas.
Age: Al Horford is now 38 yrs old. Jrue Holiday is 34 years old.
There’s an additional reason that the team may not have 100% focus. After last year’s championship, Irv Grousbeck, the principal owner, announced he was selling the team. The Celtics are in a unique situation where they do not own their arena. They rent from Bruins owner Jeremy Jacobs. This puts the Celtics at a severe financial disadvantage. And with the NBA’s revenue structure, they face an extreme penalty for being so far over the league’s salary cap.
Success has a price; they have signed their two biggest stars, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown to max contracts. They have also brought everyone else back, signing Holiday, Peyton Pritchard, Derrick White, and Sam Houser to long-term extensions. The league’s salary cap is $140M. This season the Celtics payroll is sitting at $197M. Next season it will be $226M. Based on the penalty structure, the Celtics stand to pay about half a billion dollars in salary and penalties. This is unsustainable.
Speculation is that to make the sale easier, the new owner will want less of a salary burden, which may force trades to happen. It would be hard to imagine that the new owner would want either Tatum or Brown to be traded, they would focus their attention on some of these second tier players.
It’s likely that if this is the case, there would be morale issues within the clubhouse and uncertainty among the team. White is signed through the 28-29 season, while Holliday, Houser, and Pritchard are all signed through the 27-28 season.
White and Holliday have the largest annual salary obligations at over $30M. While trading both of them is unrealistic to stay competitive for another title, I’d be shocked if one isn’t moved. Out of the two, the more likely candidate to be shipped is Holliday. He’s four years older than White, and his annual salary is about $4M more.
And as far as on the court, Holliday has been struggling this year. His numbers are down across the board. He’s down about a point per game and a rebound and assist per game. His percentages are way down, too, in 2pt and 3pt shooting. And with a team like the Celtics, who relies so heavily on the 3-point shot, shooting .349 from beyond the arc isn’t good enough. Holliday shot .429 last season.
Trading in the NBA is tough because salaries must match. However, I found a trade that works when plugged into trade machines.
The Celtics trade Holliday to the Grizzlies for Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart. Kennard is in the last year of his contract, while Smart has one year left. The $30M is basically a wash this season, but the Celtics save about $11M next season, $35M in the 26-27 season, and $37M in the 27-28 season.
Smart has been a disappointment for the Grizzlies and is currently injured. Kennard is a deadly 3-point shooter right up the Celtics’ alley. Memphis has a 30-15 record and is tied for second place in the West. The Grizzlies will surely want Holliday’s leadership and championship pedigree down the stretch.
Kennard is a career .443 3-point shooter, hitting nearly 50% of his threes this year. Smart only played 20 games last season and has only played 18 games this season. He wouldn’t be asked to do much for the Celtics, and a return home may motivate him to get on the court. As much as the trade to move Smart was needed to get them over the hump when he was with the Celtics, he did help get them to the Finals.
This deal works financially, and it works on the court, too. It may shake the Celtics enough to get them out of this slumber. The dynamic of bringing Smart back, (who was always a fan favorite), shouldn’t be awkward in the locker room since it was only two seasons ago that he was there. And unlike his first go with the team, Smart won’t be needed to start; he would be a great player coming off the bench for them.
The Celtics have never been shy about making a deal they felt they needed. In the early ’80s, they traded Rick Roby for Dennis Johnson and Cedric Maxwell for Bill Walton. After the 1984 Championship, they traded Gerald Henderson for a draft pick, which became Lenny Bias. They traded Kendrick Perkins when they felt they needed to improve the team. And just two seasons ago, they traded away Smart, which led to championship no.18. Maybe trading for him will help them achieve championship no.19…and help them in their financial woes.
