Let’s be positive here and assume that there is an organizational plan for success. Peter Bendix does have a good front-office pedigree, and the Marlins have to start from somewhere. They do have some intriguing piece,s and it will be interesting to see who among them steps up in 2025.
Breakout – Connor Norby
The Baltimore Orioles found themselves with an overabundance of young offensive talent, so it made sense for them to move Connor Norby while looking for young pitching. Norby had a prolific season at Triple-A in 2023 as he caught the attention of many, hitting .290 with 21 home runs, 92 RBI, 104 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases. Last year, Norby showed off his prolific tools with a 14.8% barrel rate and .262 ISO in the major leagues. Now, let’s see what he can do in a full season.
Sleeper – Agustin Ramirez
It’s clear that Nick Fortes is not the long-term answer behind the plate, and there’s a reason why Agustin Ramirez was a large part of Miami’s return for Jazz Chisholm. There’s still some work to be done on the defensive side of the ball, but Ramirez is a real offensive threat, and the Marlins should give him a chance behind the plate sooner rather than later. As he progresses through the minor leagues, the good news for Ramirez is that he only struck out 18.6% of the time last year. In 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Ramirez .267 with 25 home runs, 93 RBI, and, more importantly for a catcher, 22 stolen bases.
Bust – Xavier Edwards
There’s no disputing the fact that Xavier Edwards is incredibly fast. After 31 stolen bases in 70 games last year, it’s also clear that Edwards knows how to steal a base. Batting leadoff and walking 10.9% of the time last year certainly helps, but his .252 xBA in 2024 casts some doubt. With a 1.8% barrel rate, Edwards truly doesn’t have any power and is at the risk of being a one-dimensional player.
Hitting Prospect to Know – Deyvison De Los Santos
Miami’s lineup is the land of opportunity, and there’s really nothing in the way of Deyvison De Los Santos making an impact at the big league level in 2025. The defense is of some concern, but De Los Santos is going to be playing this season at age 22 and there’s a lot to like about his skills at the plate. De Los Santos’ power skills are real after he hit 40 home runs in 137 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year. With a .294 average and 120 RBI, De Los Santos has more potential than the majority of Miami’s starting lineup.
Pitching Prospect to Know – Thomas White
The former first round pick is still just 20 years old as he continues to ascend through Miami’s system. Thomas White has no shortage of upside, tools, and potential, but his ability to throw strikes and limit walks will ultimately be the deciding factor. He finished his season by pitching 62 innings, over 13 starts, in High-A with a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 76 batters. The stuff is there for White, now he just has to polish it.
C: Nick Fortes
Prediction: .230 AVG, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 35 R, 0 SB
In fairness to Nick Fortes, he’s really miscast as a starter, but it’s the Marlins, so that’s an ongoing theme here. He’s a career .222 hitter with limited power as shown by his .091 ISO last year. Over 279 batted balls last year, Fortes had just a 1.4% barrel rate, which clearly limits his upside.
1B: Matt Mervis
Prediction: .235 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 45 R, 0 SB
The left-handed hitting Matt Mervis has the platoon advantage as he looks to parlay his minor-league power into major-league production. The big concern here is the strikeouts, as they’ve been a problem throughout his career, including in his 36 MLB games.
2B: Otto Lopez
Prediction: .275 AVG, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 55 R, 20 SB
While Otto Lopez fails to bring power to the table, he’s still a solid option. Last year, Lopez hit .270 with a .274 xBA while making contact 86.1% of the time. Of greater importance, though, is the 20 bases Lopez stole in 117 games in 2024.
3B: Connor Norby
Prediction: .250 AVG, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 80 R, 10 SB
After being acquired from the Baltimore Orioles here, there’s some real upside here for Connor Norby. The strikeouts are going to warrant some attention after he fanned at 33% clip in 45 games last year. However, Norby had a .262 ISO and hit nine home runs to go along with 20 RBI. Between his .262 ISO and 14.8% barrel rate, good things happen when Norby makes contact. If you are chasing the production, Norby hit .290 with 21 home runs, 92 RBI, 104 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases in 138 games at Triple-A in 2023.
SS: Xavier Edwards
Prediction: .270 AVG, 3 HR, 48 RBI, 70 R, 35 SB
There’s no disputing Xavier Edwards’ speed, but for as fast as he is, he also has that little power upside. Edwards will be batting leadoff for Miami, and his 10.9% walk rate will help generate those stolen bases while he strikes out a reasonable 17.1% of the time. Last year, Edwards stole 31 bases in 70 games while batting .328. That mark will likely regress, though, as it came with a .398 BABIP and .252 xBA. From the power standpoint, Edwards’ 1.4% barrel rate is a real limit to his upside.
LF: Kyle Stowers
Prediction: .215 AVG, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 45 R, 3 SB
We have seen some power and run production from Kyle Stowers in the minor leagues but his upside is limited. Over 117 games, he’s yet to really take off as he’s hitting .208 while striking out at a rate of 33.8%.
CF: Derek Hill
Prediction: .250 HR, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 55 R, 9 SB
This will be the first extended playing time for Derek Hill. He brings some power to the table, but we do have to keep an eye on his strikeouts as that could limit any upside. Last year, Hill did have 12 barrels out of 109 events while hitting seven home runs in 53 games. With a .179 ISO, 25 RBI, and six stolen bases there’s some potential if he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.
RF: Griffin Conine
Prediction: .240 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 50 R, 0 SB
Griffin Conine will have to find a way to harness his 30% strikeout rate if he’s going to find extended MLB success. In 112 games at Triple-A last year, Conine had 19 home runs and 68 RBI, but there was a real cap between his .451 SLG and .373 xSLG with Miami.
DH: Jonah Bride
Prediction: .240 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 50 R, 0 SB
With a .276 average, 11 home runs, and 39 RBI in 71 games last year, Jonah Bride is a solid producer. He did walk 11% of the time, but Bride’s .224 xBA does generate some real concern. Perhaps more concerning, though, is his .334 xSLG when compared to his more favorable .461 SLG.
SP1: Sandy Alcantara
Prediction: 3.40 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 150 K, 10 W
We say welcome back to Sandy Alcantara this season, and he looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. In his first 12.1 innings this spring, Alcantara didn’t allow a run. It remains to be seen how cautious Miami will be with Alcantara, but the right-hander has previously been durable despite striking out just under a batter per inning.
SP2: Ryan Weathers
Prediction: 4.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 120 K, 7 W
Ryan Weathers took advantage of his opportunity last season, and he’s primed to continue that in 2025. His 4.20 xERA does put a little damper on Weathers 3.63 ERA but he did a good job of bringing his walk rate down to 2.49 per nine innings last year. Between a 46.6% ground ball rate and 10.4 degree average launch angle, Weathers does do a good job of limiting the potential damage.
SP3: Max Meyer
Prediction: 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 100 K, 6 W
The former first-round pick brings some real upside to the table. However, Max Meyer needs to deliver on that potential and put that all together while staying healthy. Last year, his ERA sat at 5.68, but with a 4.74 xERA, things weren’t as bad as they seemed. His 50% ground ball rate helps, but after striking out just 7.29 batters per nine innings, we do need to see that number climb to his minor league levels of 10 or 11 per nine innings. Of greater concern is the opposing barrel rate of 13.9% last year, as hitters were squaring Meyer up.
SP4: Cal Quantrill
Prediction: 4.85 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 95 K, 6 W
Cal Quantrill does get out of Coors Field, but he’s more of an innings eater than anything else. It’s not going to be pretty as Quantrill is not a strikeout pitcher while he deals with a high walk rate.
SP5: Connor Gillispie
Prediction: 4.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 60 K, 3 W
The good vibes for Connor Gillispie stop after acknowledging the fact that he strikes out a batter per inning. He did have a 4.05 ERA over 113.1 innings in Triple-A last year, but it came with a 5.42 FIP. Walking 3.81 batters per nine innings doesn’t help and allowing 1.75 home runs per nine innings just adds to the trouble.
Closer: Calvin Faucher
Prediction: 3.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 70 K, 25 SV
Someone has to close games for Miami, and towards the end of last year, that was Calvin Faucher. He saved six games while striking out 10.57 batters per nine innings and recording a 3.19 ERA. We do have to keep an eye on the walks, but a 46.4% ground ball rate helps to limit the damage.
SU1: Jesus Tinoco
Prediction: 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 60 K, 5 SV
Pitching for three teams last year, Jesus Tinoco brought his walk rate substantially down to 2.66 per nine innings. Tinoco averaged 96.6 miles per hour with his fastball while pitching to a 3.32 ERA. Hitters did have trouble squaring him up as they had a barrel rate of 6.7% along with a hard hit rate of just 32.3% in 2024.
SU2: Anthony Bender
Prediction: 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 60 K, 5 SV
Home runs are a problem for Anthony Bender, but aside from that, he’s a solid setup man. Last year he did have a 4.08 ERA but his 3.44 xERA and 2.92 FIP paint his 2024 performance in a more favorable light. Between his 50% ground ball rate, 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and 4.8% barrel rate, Bender does a good job of keeping hitters off balance.
