MEAC: South Carolina State
The Bulldogs are a very deep squad that boasts the best defense in the conference and is rolling into the tournament on a 9-game win streak. This is a conference of chaos, and no outcome would surprise me, but I’ll place my bet on the team playing the best ball currently.
MAC: Akron
The defending champs of MACtion lost their best player from last season, Enrique Freeman, but kept most of the remaining roster intact and have improved on last season’s regular season record, only losing one game in conference play. It’s simply difficult to pick against a team that was this dominant in league play.
MAAC: Merrimack
The Warriors were eligible for the NCAA tournament for the first time last season but are now in a good position to go dancing for the first time ever in just their second opportunity. They beat 1-seed Quinnipiac on the second-to-last day of the regular season, rate slightly better than Quinnipiac on both offense and defense and boast the conference’s best player in Adam Clark.
Conference USA: Liberty
In a conference that has rock-paper-scissors-esque standings at the top, I like to look at non-conference play to see who the real best team might be. And I think it’s the Liberty Flames who beat Charleston, Kansas State, and McNeese in non-con action.
WAC: Grand Canyon
Utah Valley may have nabbed the one-seed, but it’s hard for me to pick against Bryce Drew’s ‘Lopes in this one. They have been a bit banged up, but still own the conference’s best net rating on KenPom, and the conference’s best big man in TCU transfer Ja’Kobe Coles.
SWAC: Texas Southern
This may truly be the conference of chaos this season, as no one dominant team has emerged from the fray. So I’ll go with 4-seed Texas Southern, who rank 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency, and have dealt with a ton of injuries this season but now have every key player back in the fold with now more experienced depth pieces behind them, which should equip them well to win 3 games in 3 days.
Mountain West: San Diego State
Fun fact: Brian Dutcher’s squad has reached the final of the Mountain West tournament every year since 2014, which goes all the way back to when Steve Fisher (yes, that Steve Fisher) was head coach! This conference has 5 solid teams at the top, and the Aztecs are the one I trust the most to win 3 games in 3 days due to their methodical pace and intense half-court defense.
Big West: UC San Diego
The Tritons’ NCAA Tournament resume might be good enough to go dancing without winning this tournament, but I think they will anyway. They are on a 13-game win streak, including a 2nd half domination of 2nd place UC Irvine in February. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is a tough matchup for anyone in the conference and could end up being one of those March heroes once they’re in the NCAA Tournament field
Atlantic 10: Dayton
The A10 has somehow featured a different champion in every edition since 2016. The Flyers would have, in all likelihood, won in their magical 2020 season but never got the chance, and somehow they are not a member of the “8 different champs in 8 different tournaments” streak. I think they make that streak go to 9 this season. This team is simply the most talented in the league, with wins over UConn and Marquette in non-conference, and are the only team to beat VCU at their house this season. A dry spell in January kept them from winning the conference outright, but I think Anthony Grant’s Flyers are ready to soar into the NCAA Tournament (get it?).
Ivy League: Yale
The defending champs may have lost their best player Danny Wolf to Michigan, but returned much of the rest of the roster that beat Auburn in the round of 64 last season. They used that continuity to dominate the Ivy in the regular season, with only one conference loss to this point.
American Athletic: North Texas
All of the bubble teams across America will be rooting for Memphis, as the American’s only projected at-large team. But I really like how this tournament shakes out for the Mean Green, who are 2nd in league play in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the only team with such balance on both sides of the ball.
