Last week, we went 4/5 OUTRIGHT in our upset picks, the best mark of the season. Let’s see if we can keep our hot streak going this week!
Tuesday, January 28
North Carolina over Pittsburgh
I faded the Tar Heels last week, but I am back on them to pull off this upset. When you look at the Tar Heels’ season, they have had issues defending bigger guards and post-scorers. Pitt has neither. I also think UNC could be due for some shooting regression after shooting under 27% from 3 in two of their last three games.
Dayton over St Bonaventure
The Flyers may be a road favorite by the time this game tips off, but right now, they project as a slight underdog. Dayton’s metrics are skewed by a three-game losing streak in conference play, during which they played poorly offensively and encountered some hot shooting from other teams. They have since switched up their starting lineup by inserting freshman Amael L’Etang and gone on a three-game win streak, whereas the Bonnies have lost three straight.
Wednesday, January 28
Texas over Ole Miss
Ironically enough, schedule symmetry perfectly describes these two teams’ current play. Texas is coming off wins against Missouri and Texas A&M, while Ole Miss has lost to those same teams. Both teams will look to drain the shot clock and play tough-minded basketball, and I think Tre Johnson’s shot creation will play a large part in Texas’s ability to pull off the upset.
Saturday, February 1
Arizona State over Arizona
The last time we saw the Sun Devils, they were very competitive against Iowa State before foul trouble took its toll in the second half. In that game, they also got four-star freshman Joson Sanon back from injury—he certainly makes this team better—and they will be playing on their home floor. I think Arizona is a team that is ripe to be upset in general, as they depend fairly on Caleb Love’s difficult shot-making offensively.
Vanderbilt over Oklahoma
Oklahoma is a team that started out the season 13-0 with neutral floor wins over Arizona and Michigan. But once conference play started, they have regressed. They have only beaten South Carolina and Arkansas in conference play, the two worst teams in the loaded SEC. Defensively, Oklahoma has a very similar profile to Kentucky — good at defending the 3-point line but soft on defending shots inside the arc. And Vanderbilt just beat Kentucky last Saturday. This is a bet on Vandy being able to copy and paste their gameplan and Oklahoma not being as good as they are perceived to be.
