The calendar hasn’t hit March yet, but there’s still plenty of time for Madness in college basketball this season. It has honestly been a fairly chalky season so far, without a whole lot of monumental upsets, which means that we are ripe to see some in the coming weeks as every conference has started conference play and teams are trying to make their push to either get in the NCAA tournament or help their seeding on Selection Sunday.
Saint Louis over VCU
I am buying stock in the ascending Saint Louis Billikens in Josh Schertz’ first year, who have quietly started 3-0 in conference play. The Billikens are a team that doesn’t force a lot of turnovers and doesn’t foul a whole lot, and I just don’t trust this VCU offense to put them away when they have to make shots — they rank 262nd nationally in 3-point shooting percentage.
Mississippi State over Auburn
Just how big of a factor is Johni Broome? We’ll find out pretty quickly as Auburn welcomes a solid Mississippi State team to town with their superstar likely to not play. The Bulldogs have the size down low with Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy to have the advantage with whatever Auburn throws at them sans Broome.
South Carolina over Vanderbilt
The Gamecocks are projected to be the bottom-dweller in the SEC this season, and this may be one of their best shots to get a conference win. They impressed with a narrow loss to Auburn and now draw a team stylistically that they match up well with. South Carolina’s advantage is their size with Collin Murray-Boyles and Nick Pringle, and Vanderbilt plays the smallest lineup in the SEC.
UCF over Houston
I feel much more confident about UCF covering the spread in this game than winning outright, but I think this spot is ripe for a Houston upset. Houston has not played a difficult game in conference play yet, and they are entering a road environment where UCF has already taken down Texas A&M. The Knights also have added talented freshman Mikey Williams to the rotation, and he could add a lot to this team as the season goes on. I also feel like Houston is ripe for some 3-point shooting regression — it is a red flag to me that they are only making 48.6% of their 2-point shots while shooting 41.5% from 3. Teams tend to have a wider gap between 2-point and 3-point shooting than 7%.
Arkansas over Missouri
Everyone is down on Arkansas right now after starting SEC play 0-3. But honestly, how many teams wouldn’t go 0-3 against Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Florida? The Razorbacks will clearly be the more talented team on the floor, and I think this is a natural buy-low spot for an Arkansas team that still ranks 26th nationally in defensive efficiency, even with that gauntlet of a schedule.
