Everyone remembers the biggest upsets in March. Florida Gulf Coast, Princeton, Fairleigh Dickinson, Oakland, the list goes on and on. It’s fun to watch the upset unfold, but it’s even more fun to be the one that calls the upset. Today, we’re going to look at each seed line and give the most likely potential upset for each seed. I’ll also provide the point spread if I’m able to convince you that a team might cover but not win outright.
12 Seed: UC San Diego +2.5 over Michigan
My ONLY concern about picking this upset is how popular it is getting. It always feels like in the NCAA Tournament, when an underdog picks up a lot of steam, the favorite wins. But there’s a reason why the UCSD Tritons are picking up steam – they are an elite turnover-forcing team with legitimate weapons on the offensive end. Michigan is a team that turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the nation. It has been running really hot on winning close games and is due for some regression in that regard.
13 Seed: Yale +7.5 over Texas A&M
I have been banging the drum for High Point for weeks, so I won’t bore you with more High Point Panther talk. I really do like the chances of Yale covering or winning outright against Texas A&M. This is a great strength-against-weakness matchup for Yale. The Bulldogs’ intense help defense forces opponents into taking 3-point shots at the 6th-highest rate in the country, and Texas A&M is a poor shooting team, only making 31% of their 3s on the season. Texas A&M usually rebounds those misses, however, but Yale has been a well-above-average rebounding team. I just see a pathway for Yale to win off of a poor shooting night from Texas A&M.
14 Seed: Troy +11.5 over Kentucky
The Troy Trojans are a team that understands the math behind winning basketball games. They use their elite offensive rebounding ability and aggressive turnover-forcing defense to generally create more shots than their opponents, and they are 5th in the country in the rim-and-3 rate, meaning that analytically, they take good shots. Kentucky is also one of the streakiest-shooting teams in the country and is quite banged up with injuries, so while Troy might have a talent disadvantage, they are starting ahead with their play style and would only need a poor shooting night from Kentucky to come out on top.
15 Seed: Bryant +18.5 over Michigan State
I was contemplating putting Robert Morris in this spot when it looked like a possibility that Alabama’s Grant Nelson might be injured. But I really think that Bryant is the best-equipped team to pull off the upset. They have multiple down-transfers from P5 schools in Earl Timberlake and Rafael Pinzon, are one of the tallest teams in the nation, and play at an excruciatingly fast tempo. Early in the season, Bryant was able to score 77 on the very tough St Johns’ defense – but they still lost by 22 as they gave up 99. They are a unique opponent that could give Michigan State some problems if they don’t prepare properly.
11 Seed: VCU +2.5 over BYU
This is not any slight to BYU, but I am very bullish on this VCU Rams team. They lead the nation in Defensive Effective FG% and are 23rd overall in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. We also know that guard play rules the day in March, and VCU has three good and experienced guards, led by A10 Player of the Year Max Shulga.
16 Seed: Norfolk State +28.5 over Florida
Look, I’m not picking this one in my bracket. This is one of the best collective groups of 1-seeds of all-time, and I find it highly unlikely that any of them lose in the round of 64. But if one WERE to lose, I would be placing my bet on Norfolk State. They are the best overall 16-seed by about 4 points on KenPom, they have plenty of size to match up with a high-major opponent, and it just feels like there’s less of a talent gap in this game than the others. Norfolk State also won the MEAC in the regular season. An under-rated component of these long upsets is that most of them come from teams who won their conference in the regular season, and Norfolk State is one who accomplished that.
