The biggest thing for the Atlanta Braves is health. Ronald Acuna needs to come back from injury without issue, however, we do need to allow for some patience. The presence of Drake Baldwin should help offset Sean Murphy’s absence, but the Braves need everyone to stay healthy. That also goes for Chris Sale after a dominant 2024 season. While there is plenty of talent in the minor leagues, the back end of Atlanta’s rotation certainly has its share of question marks, with Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson both in the mix.
Breakout and Sleeper:
Breakout: Spencer Schwellenbach: Last year, Spencer Schwellenbach made his presence felt with a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts while making his MLB debut. Schwellenbach averaged 96.2 miles per hour with his fastball as he built on his minor league success. After being drafted in the second round in 2021, it’s been a quick trip through Atlanta’s system beginning in 2023. In any of his stops, Schwellenbach didn’t post an ERA higher than 2.63 while generally striking out a batter per inning. His rotation spot secure, the right-hander is slated to continue on that success.
Sleeper: AJ Smith-Shawver: The back end of Atlanta’s rotation is certainly questionable so that provides a strong path for AJ Smith-Shawver towards regular innings. On Thursday, Smith-Shawver struck out eight over four innings as he continues a strong spring. There is plenty of talent here but Smith-Shawver is still working on putting it together and generating results. He made his MLB debut last year with 4.1 shutout innings, but he failed to find success in Triple-A with a 4.85 ERA. We don’t have to worry about strikeouts here, but Smith-Shawver does have to harness his control.
Key Prospects:
Hitting – Drake Baldwin: Atlanta’s system is quite thin with hitting prospects, but Drake Baldwin has been thrust into the spotlight entering the season. Baldwin spent 52 games in Double-A last year in one of the worst parks for hitters which helps to explain his .249 batting average with four home runs and 35 RBI. After being promoted to Triple-A, Baldwin’s production jumped to a .298 average with 12 home runs and 55 RBI in 72 games. After a strong 2023 season in High-A, we can expect something else as he continues to climb through the Braves’ system.
Pitching Prospect – Hurston Waldrep: When it comes to pitching prospects in Atlanta’s system, you can really just take your pick at this point. Hurston Waldrep had two rough starts with the Braves last year, but remains poised to make an impact in 2025. He struck out about an inning between Double-A and Triple-A last year had success with a 2.92 and 3.38 ERA, respectively. Waldrep does have to improve his control but the pieces are in place as he continues to develop his pitches.
Key Hitters:
1B: Matt Olson: Prediction: .250 AVG, 33 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 1 SB
2B: Ozzie Albies: Prediction: .265 AVG, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R, 12 SB
3B: Austin Riley: Prediction: .270 AVG, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 90 R, 1 SB
CF: Michael Harris: Prediction: .280 AVG, 21 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R, 20 SB
RF: Ronald Acuna: Prediction: .285 AVG, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 100 R, 27 SB
DH: Marcell Ozuna: Prediction: .270 AVG, 38 HR, 95 RBI, 85 R, 0 SB
Key Starting Pitchers:
SP1: Chris Sale: Prediction: 2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 200 K, 15 W
SP2: Reynaldo Lopez: Prediction: 3.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 160 K, 10 W
SP3: Spencer Schwellenbach: Prediction: 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 155 K, 11 W
Former staff ace Spencer Strider will return at some point this season and could be a key member of this rotation as well.
Key Bullpen Arms:
Closer: Raisel Iglesias: Prediction: 2.75 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65 K, 30 SV
SU1: Pierce Johnson: Prediction: 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 75 K, 3 SV
SU2: Aaron Bummer: Prediction: 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 65 K, 0 SV
