With Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette headed towards free agency, the Toronto Blue Jays are at an interesting crossroads. They did Anthony Santander to the middle of their lineup, but the veteran pitching staff could also go in either direction. If everything breaks right, competing for a Wild Card spot is possible, but so is finishing in last place in the AL East.
Breakout/Sleeper/Bust:
Breakout – Will Wagner: Granted it was just 24 games last year, but Will Wagner certainly had a strong debut. Wagner hit .305 with two home runs and 11 RBI while keeping the strikeouts under control. We didn’t see it after his promotion, but Wagner has also shown the ability to draw a walk. The home runs aren’t going to jump off the chart, but he did have a solid 9.1% barrel rate and a 50% hard hit rate. Currently, Wagner is projected to bat fifth for Toronto which means RBI opportunities will be in full supply.
Sleeper – Kevin Gausman: Compared to last year, expectations are dramatically lower for Kevin Gausman. This comes after he made 31 starts for the third start season in 2024. It was concerning that Gausman had a substantial decrease in his strikeouts per nine innings (11.53 to 8.06), but his ERA was still solid at 3.83. Gausman’s FIP of 3.77 still plays, though, as does his track record of being a strong innings eater.
Bust – Chris Bassitt: Long a dependable rotation option, this might be the year in which Chris Bassitt truly takes a stop back. Last year that might have begun as Bassitt’s ERA jumped to 4.16 with an xERA of 4.52. Equally as problematic, Bassitt walked about another batter per nine innings last year. Considering he doesn’t overpower the opposition, an increase in free bases isn’t a great path to success.
Key Prospects:
Hitting Prospect – Orelvis Martinez: The biggest problem last year for Orelvis Martinez was his 80-game suspension for a PED violation. Aside from that, Martinez spent 74 successful games in Triple-A. Ultimately, there is a spot waiting for Martinez in Toronto when he’s deemed ready. Last year, Martinez finished with 17 home runs and 49 RBI with a .256 ISO.
Pitching Prospect – Jake Bloss: Jake Bloss emerged on the scene last year with the Astros finishing with a 3.18 ERA in 93.1 minor league innings. That didn’t translate into success in his three starts with the Astros before being traded to Toronto. The minor league success is what caught our attention, but it really was just a continuation of a strong 2023. If the Blue Jays need rotation reinforcements this season, Bloss is likely to get the call.
Key Hitters:
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Prediction: .305 AVG, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 2 SB
SS: Bo Bichette: Prediction: .275 AVG, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 75 R, 10 SB
LF: Anthony Santander: Prediction: .245 AVG, 38 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 2 SB
RF: George Springer: Prediction: .245 AVG, 20 HR, 65 RBI, 75 R, 14 SB
Key Starting Pitchers:
SP1: Kevin Gausman: Prediction: 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 185 K, 14 W
SP2: Jose Berrios: Prediction: 4.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 160 K, 12 W
SP3: Chris Bassitt: Prediction: 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 155 K, 10 W
SP4: Max Scherzer: Prediction: 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 140 K, 9 W
Key Bullpen Arms:
Closer: Jeff Hoffman: Prediction: 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 80 K, 25 SV
SU1: Chad Green: Prediction: 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 60 K, 7 SV
SU2: Yimi Garcia: Prediction: 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 70 K, 3 SV
