Baker took a tough loss against Dallas last Sunday night, and Tampa needs this game badly if they want to make the playoffs. Carolina has allowed the most touchdown passes to opposing teams this season and even though they’ve played better defensively, I’m still putting my faith in a Tampa offense, which has been pretty hard to stop this season. Baker gets 260 yards and 2 TDs.
QB: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
The Falcons have allowed the second most touchdown passes as well as the 7th most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, with all the injuries that the Commanders have had, Daniels will need to step up his game against Atlanta this weekend. I say he does with 245 passing yards and 2 TDs, plus 55 rushing yards, too.
QB: Jordan Love, Packers
I’m really looking forward to this game against two division rivals. Minnesota has allowed the third most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but more importantly I think Love looks confident again like he did prior to his injury. If he can get a little time to throw, he could be able to take big advantage of the Vikings shaky secondary to the tune of 280 yards and 2 TDs.
QB: Bryce Young, Panthers
The last time these two teams played, Young had 298 yards passing. Tampa has allowed the 4th most passing yards this season and the third most points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Young looks more confident with the scheme, and I think he’s going to have another really good game this weekend with 250 yards and 2 TDs.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Gibbs might have a tough matchup, but he’s matchup-proof. He’s going to get about 20 to 25 touches, and he’s the most explosive player right now outside of Saquon Barkley. Look for him to score at least 20 to 25 fantasy points this week.
RB: Bucky Irving, Bucs
Irving has been surprising to most onlookers, but he showed this type of ability back at the University of Oregon the last few seasons. Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing running backs, as well as a 5.10 YPC. Moreover, they have the worst DVOA against opposing running backs, which should all make for a transcendent game for Irving, who gets 110 all-purpose yards and a TD.
RB: Tony Pollard, Titans
Jacksonville has the second-worst DVOA against opposing running backs, and they also have the second-worst points per game allowed against the position. What I’m looking for this week is a little touchdown regression since Tyjae Spears has gotten a bunch of touchdowns and Pollard seems like he’s due. I think he gets 90 rushing yards and scores. Start him with confidence.
RB: Breece Hall, Jets
The Bills allow the second most receptions to opposing running backs as well as the most receiving yards to opposing running backs too. If Aaron Rodgers follows the game plan Hall should be an outstanding play and get 120 all-purpose yards and a TD.
RB: Kendre Miller, Saints
We’ve discussed a lot about flop lag, which is when a guy who disappointed last week has a better week this upcoming week. In Week 16, that happened with Chuba Hubbard, and I think in Week 17, it’s going to happen with Miller. Miller was a disaster on Monday night against Green Bay, but I could say that for the entire New Orleans Saints roster. Look for them to rebound at home against a Raiders defense that has been very susceptible to explosive running backs. Miller should get at least 65 rushing yards and a TD.
WR: Drake London, Falcons
Washington has allowed the third-worst DVOA to opposing WR1 this season. But what I really think pushes me to start him is that Michael Penix may lock in on London, considering he’s playing a far more competitive defense in Washington than he did against New York last week. Look for London to lead the way with about 8 catches for 80 yards.
WR: Terry McLaurin, Commanders
Atlanta has the second-worst DVOA versus WR1. They also allow the highest catch percentage to WRs with over 70%. Washington doesn’t really have a number 2 receiver, so they’re going to go as much to McLaurin as they possibly can. Look for him to have 100 yards and a touchdown.
WR: Calvin Ridley, Titans
The last time Jacksonville played Tennessee, the game was a complete disappointment, but I think we’re going to see the opposite this week. Jacksonville has allowed the highest YPT this season at 9.17, and they have the 4th worst DVOA against WR1. Let’s not forget the revenge narrative that we didn’t get last time. I think Ridley will catch a touchdown this week for sure.
WR: Jayden Reed, Packers
Jayden Reed is fantastic against zone coverage, and moreover, Minnesota has the worst DVOA against slot receivers. There are some weeks where Reed completely disappears, and there are some weeks where he takes over, and I think this is going to be one of those weeks where he takes over. Look for him to have 5 catches for 80 yards and at least one touchdown.
TE: Brock Bowers, Raiders
New Orleans plays a ton of man coverage, and I think Bowers is going to feast. Bowers is having a record-setting season, which will continue with a strong game of at least 80 yards and a touchdown.
