Start: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers:
The Buccaneers’ defense has struggled against the pass all season, allowing multiple passing touchdowns in several games. Their secondary is exploitable, especially against accurate quarterbacks. And While Young has had an up-and-down rookie season, he’s shown flashes here lately (including 28+ against these very Buccaneers). Also, if Tampa takes an early lead, Young will be put in a pass-heavy game script, boosting his volume and yardage potential as well. Carolina’s offensive line has had issues protecting Young, however, and outside of Thielen, Young doesn’t have many reliable targets – which could cap his ceiling. Young has upside in favorable game conditions, and I like/love his chances this week.
Start: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield has taken advantage of good matchups all season, and Carolina’s defense has been inconsistent at best, particularly against the pass. They have struggled to generate pressure and contain QBs in recent weeks, making it an exploitable matchup for Baker. Mayfield has shown solid efficiency lately, especially in games where he’s had clean pockets. This matchup could turn into a high-scoring affair, as Carolina has shown offensive sparks the past month or so (RE: my other QB start reco). Mayfield is a great play this week, high ceiling with a solid floor and potential for a big game against Carolina.
Sit: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns
Miami’s defense has been pretty damn good against opposing QBs on the season (ranked first against the position), and I expect them to make it difficult for DTR to find consistent success through the air. As a rookie quarterback, DTR is still adjusting to the speed and complexity of NFL defenses, and he has struggled with turnovers and consistency in limited appearances this season (which may be amplified against a solid Miami defense). Miami’s offense can force opposing teams into catch-up mode, which could lead to DTR being put in unfavorable passing situations as well, increasing the likelihood of mistakes. Unless you’re desperate at quarterback or in a deep league, it’s better to explore safer, more proven options this week.
Sit: Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
Cooper Rush faces an uphill battle this week against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Eagles boast an elite pass rush and a strong secondary, which has been exceptional at limiting opposing quarterbacks all season (all credit due to Jadyn Daniels scorching them for nearly 50 points). Rush has done a commendable job managing games for Dallas, and he’s even dropped 20+ in four of his last six games. An interesting note, however – Philadelphia’s defense is particularly tough on pocket passers, making this a challenging matchup for Coop. If you’re a regular reader, you know I’ve shown Cooper much love. But I’m not sure I trust him in the ship this week in a bad-blood game. If you’re streaming quarterbacks, look elsewhere this week, as Rush’s ceiling and floor are both too low in this unfavorable divisional showdown.
Start: Jonathon Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathon Taylor saved my fantasy life last week, and we’re all going to lean on him again this week in a must-start matchup against the New York Giants. Big Blue’s defense has struggled against the run this season, allowing one of the highest yards-per-carry averages in the league. On the other hand, Taylor has been heating up, showing the elite form that made him a fantasy superstar. With Indianapolis likely leaning on their ground game to control the pace, Taylor should see plenty of volume, especially near the goal line. His combination of power and burst makes him a prime candidate for a multi-touchdown performance against a soft front seven. Start Taylor with confidence as an RB1 this week—he’s set to feast.
Start: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers’ defense has been one of the most generous units to opposing RBs this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed. Irving’s explosiveness makes him a strong candidate for a nice week here. BONUS – Irving’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield gives him additional value as well. The Panthers’ linebackers have struggled to contain running backs in the passing game, which could lead to additional opportunities for him. If the Bucs establish an early lead, Irving could see increased volume as they look to control the clock, maximizing his touches. Unless there’s a significantly better matchup elsewhere on your roster, Irving looks like a solid start this week.
Sit: Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Man, what a ride. And in all honesty, many of us owe Rico a thank you for carrying us into our fantasy playoffs. The touchdowns weren’t there, but man, the rushing yards sure were. Dowdle was a stud from Weeks 12-15 but ran into a brick wall Sunday night against the suddenly stout Tampa Bay rush defense. This week, Dowdle gets the Eagles, and I don’t like this matchup for many of the same reasons. Only five rushing touchdowns allowed all season by Philly, and zero 100-yard rushers since Week 4, leading to this unit producing 5.4 points better than league average PVO. And with the Ship on the line for most of us, I just don’t think we can rely on Rico this week.
Start: Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
Terry McLaurin is a solid start in Week 16 against the Atlanta Falcons. McLaurin has been consistent as Washington’s top wide receiver, and the Falcons’ defense has struggled mightily against quality pass catchers this season. Atlanta ranks among the bottom teams in terms of pass defense, particularly in allowing big plays. With McLaurin’s ability to stretch the field, he has the potential to post big numbers. Given the favorable matchup, McLaurin has a big ceiling in this one, and I expect him to be back in the top 10 once again this week.
Start: A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
All it took was a sit reco a few weeks ago, and A.J. is back! If I had only known. Sigh. After a two-week, drama-filled hiatus, Brown has snapped off consecutive top-10 performances (WR9, WR8), and he’s set to do it again against a Dallas defense, allowing 40+ plus points a week to the position over the past four games. An obvious start if Hurts plays, and I don’t hate the matchup if it’s Kenny Pickett. Both carry injury designations into the week, and Tanner McKee is currently the only man standing. If McKee is under center Sunday, ABORT. A.J. Brown has been vocal about his hatred of the Cowboys, and in a bad-blood game, I expect him to be there for us in our fantasy playoffs. In the right space, he may return WR1 numbers this week.
Sit: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Obviously, we’re starting Jefferson. Silly to recommend him as a sit. And maybe this is less of a sit reco and more of a temper-your-expectations type thing. While Jefferson is an elite talent, the Packers defense has been performing well lately, particularly against wide receivers (-3.8 position vs. opponent). Part of this is written with the expectation that Jaire Alexander – who practiced fully all week but was a scratch Sunday – will play. Consider Two weeks ago when Jefferson squared off against the Bears’ Jaylon Johnson. While covered by Johnson, Jefferson saw seven targets, one catch for one yard (7-6-72 otherwise). Alexander is that type of defender when healthy and active. And with Addison and Hockenson playing at a high level, Darnold doesn’t have to force it to Jefferson for the Vikings to compete. That being said, sitting Jefferson is not a decision to be taken lightly, as he has the potential for explosive performances. A floor game is my expectation here unless Jaire sits.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
In weeks 11-15, Jeudy was DOMINANT (ahem, Denver), and no doubt carried teams into the postseason on his back. Flowers everywhere. So why the glum? Three names: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Jeudy in his first game with DTR, you ask? Abysmal – three targets (yikes), two catches, 20 yards. Folks, it was fun while it lasted and you absolutely cannot trust Jerry as long as DTR is under center – which he will be if healthy. I promise you have better options, and if not, hit that wire.
Start: Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
Six. The number six. Six straight double-digit performances Jonnu has given us. Do you know who else has done that this season? George Kittle (TE1), Bowers (TE3), and Trey McBride (TE4). That’s it. That’s the company Jonnu is in. And he’s kind of matchup-proof at this point, not that it matters because The Land is most generous to the position (24th). He’s getting peppered with targets, and he’s turning them into consistent production for us. Top 10 week for Jonnu, especially if Waddle continues to sit.
Start: Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Running it back with my man Chig! Against a Colts defense that’s been gouged all season by TEs, Chig’s stat line was impressive – eleven targets, nine receptions, 81 yards, good enough for TE2 on the week. And now he gets a crack at the Jaguars, who have ranked 26th against tight ends (routinely giving up 15+ points)?? SWOOOOOOOON. The switch at QB has certainly favored Okonkwo, which is good news as Rudolph has been named the Week 17 starter. Obviously we’re starting the usual suspects, but in the fantasy playoffs – championship week for most of us – I’m absolutely OK rolling Okonkwo.
Sit: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson just isn’t consistent enough for me to bet the farm on him this weekend. The targets have been here and there with Coop at QB, but it’s mostly checkdowns and short gains with zero touchdowns (and minimal fantasy production) in sight. In fact, Ferguson hasn’t finished above TE17 since Week 9. And Philadelphia’s defense has been stellar against tight ends this season, ranking among the best in limiting fantasy production at the position. Their pass rush can also disrupt timing, reducing opportunities for players like Ferguson (check-downs) to get involved in the passing game. The Cowboys have leaned heavily on their wide receivers in recent weeks, with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks commanding a significant target share, which further limits Ferguson’s value. Unless you’re dealing with injuries or a lack of better options, it might be wise to look elsewhere for a tight end with a more favorable matchup.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
The Jets’ defense has been consistently strong against tight ends and just limited Tyler Higbe and Co. to one catch for 11 yards. Touchdowns have been their bugaboo in recent weeks (three TDs allowed in the past four), but I don’t think that will be an issue this week, as Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have combined for only three TDs all season. The Buffalo offense can dice your defense in several different ways, making it tough to predict with any certainty when ANY of the skill positions are going to produce. Kincaid is a gifted athlete with a QB who can sling it, but are you really trusting a TE that has one – ONE – finish above TE15 all season? Yeah, me neither.
