There are five games in CBB this week that could feature a big upset. Here’s a breakdown of how each one can happen.
Dayton over Cincinnati
You may sense a recurring theme here — Cincinnati has had a great start to their season but has not beaten a team inside the top 60 on KenPom. Dayton, on the other hand, has beaten both UConn and Marquette already and has only lost to Iowa State and North Carolina. The Flyers won this same matchup last season, which was at this same “neutral site” that was full of the Flyer Faithful.
North Carolina over Florida
The Tar Heels may have 4 losses, but they have played a brutal schedule so far, ranked 11th nationally. Florida is unbeaten, but they boast no wins over top-50 teams on KenPom. Stylistically, I think you beat UNC with size down low, and Florida likes to play through their guards. I’ll take the battle-tested Tar Heels in this one.
Seton Hall over Villanova
To this point in the season, defense has been the specialty of Shaheen Holloway’s Pirates, ranking 34th nationally in defensive efficiency. The offense has been a work in progress, ranking 300th. But I think that Holloway and his team are starting to figure things out, mostly by playing through Isaiah Coleman and Garwey Dual. Give me the Pirates against a Villanova team that already has 3 losses outside of the KenPom top 100.
Providence over St Johns
The resumes of these two teams does not tell the full story. Providence is 2-1 with Bryce Hopkins in the lineup, with wins over DePaul and BYU, who are both top-100 on KenPom. St. Johns is ranked 15th on KenPom, but is getting a lot of credit for blowout wins over bad teams and close losses to good ones. They have not beaten a team ranked better than 69th. Now, Hopkins missed Providence’s last game against St Bonaventure, but if he is back in the lineup, I like the Friars’ chance of an upset. They are simply a different team with Hopkins.
South Alabama over TCU
TCU will be playing their first game without starting point guard Frankie Collins, who is out for the season. And while South Alabama is far from a great team (ranked 202nd on KenPom), they take 3-pointers at the 4th-highest rate nationally. All it would take is one hot shooting night to shock the Horned Frogs.
