The performance of hockey goalies from one season to the next is notoriously volatile and difficult to predict. That said, there are certain things that we can look at to help us guess which keepers will be the best for the upcoming season. This article will go over the goalies that I believe will be the top three goalies overall in the NHL this year.
1. Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Igor Shesterkin had an impressive 36 wins last year and was a big reason the Rangers were the best team in the Metropolitan Division and were able to make it to the Conference Finals. To put into context just how good Shesterkin has been so far in his career, his .921 save percentage is currently tied with Tuukka Rask for second-best among any goalies who have played at least 200 games since the dawn of the sport. Of the 32 teams in the NHL, the Rangers were the 10th best in shot prevention and 7th best in goals allowed last year and have been top-10 or nearly so in both categories for three consecutive years now. The combination of Shesterkin’s elite skills coupled with the rock-solid environment he enjoys in New York makes him my top pick for this coming season.
2. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
After winning the Vezina Trophy last year with the highest save percentage of any primary backstop, Connor Hellebuyck is poised to once again be in contention for the best goalie in the NHL this year. It is fair to say that in many ways, over the past five years, Hellebuyck has been the most consistently great goalie in the game. He has achieved 37 wins in back-to-back seasons- good for 3rd best and 2nd best in the NHL, respectively. Among goalies who played at least 25 games, he has been top ten in several advanced metrics in each of these years while simultaneously playing more total games than any other goalie. Look for Hellebuyck’s success to continue this year behind a largely unchanged Winnipeg defense that was tied with Florida last year for first in the NHL in Goals Against per Game.
DALLAS, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 29: Connor Hellebuyck #37 of the Winnipeg Jets warms up before the game against the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center on February 29, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
3. Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins
Here’s a crazy stat about the Bruins: Boston has been top 5 in the NHL in Goals Against per Game for seven straight years now coming into the new season (twice coming in first). This is in no small part due to their netminders, who have been superb. Swayman, one of their star performers in recent seasons, has just signed a $66 million contract for the next eight years. While he has never started more than 50 games in a season in the NHL (his most was last year’s 43 starts), Sway has more than made up for this lack of quantity with the quality of his play. He has a superb .919 career save percentage and has been consistently much better than the league average in all the advanced stats I looked into (such as Save % Above Expected and High Danger Save %) since his arrival in the NHL. Swayman’s new contract shows the Bruins have a lot of faith that he can be their number-one keeper for a long time, and he should, at the very least, start the majority of games for the Bruins moving forward. With Boston’s superb defense in front of him and his elite skills in net, Sway seems poised to be one of the top goaltenders in the league this year.
