One common complaint about the 12-team playoff is that it devalues the regular season. I actually think the opposite is true. The 12-team playoff brings more teams into the playoff picture. This makes more games matter on a weekly basis, particularly in the last month of the season. There are teams like Texas, Michigan, and USC who may be on the outside looking in right now, but would be in the bracket if they win out, making every single game matter.
1. Ohio State
I’m ready to declare the Ohio State Buckeyes a CFP lock. They got a bit of a fight from Penn State in Week 10, but pulled away in the second half. I find it borderline implausible to suggest this team loses before the Michigan game, and I wouldn’t think that game would be that much of a test if Ryan Day didn’t have a terrible history against the team up north.
2. Indiana
Another week, another blowout win for the Indiana Hoosiers. Part of what makes this team great is the fact that Curt Cignetti has a little bit of Saban in him – his teams take every opponent seriously and play with their best effort every week. This makes it really hard to envision them losing to an inferior team, which is all they will see until the Big 10 Championship game.
3. Texas A&M
Well, one way to avoid the November losses that have traumatized your fanbase is to have a bye week in November. I see what you did there, Mike Elko. The Aggies had a bye in Week 10 and now only have a limited number of opportunities to lose before the SEC Championship. If the Aggies make it to the Texas game undefeated, that atmosphere in Austin will be incredible.
4. Alabama
With a bye in Week 10, the Crimson Tide remain undefeated in SEC play and unblemished since their now puzzling loss to Florida State in Week 1. The Tide will need to go 10-2 to get Kalen DeBoer into his first CFP in Tuscaloosa, but it’s hard to envision them losing multiple games before the end of the season.
5. Georgia
I could make the argument that no SEC team is in as good of a position to make the CFP as Georgia. The Bulldogs played such a tough schedule that a 9-3 record would likely to still get Georgia into the playoffs. This gives them two “mulligans” prior to the end of the season, which Bulldog fans should appreciate, as they seemingly trail in the first half every single week before storming back in the second.
6. Oregon
The Ducks are here for now, but I don’t feel great about it. This team just doesn’t have any great wins. This makes the USC game a must-win. If USC beats Oregon, this spot would transfer over to them. Oregon does not have the quality wins to beat out any 10-2 SEC teams for a playoff bid.
7. Ole Miss
The Ole Miss Rebels are the one team that I am not sure if they are actually one of the 12 best teams in the country, but I am very sure that they will be in the CFP. They hit the lottery on the SEC schedule generation this year, and play no more games that should provide them a stiff test. When they do get in the CFP, their run game with Kewan Lacy will make them a tough out.
8. Notre Dame
I firmly believe that Notre Dame will be selected for the 12-team playoff, but I don’t think that it’s an automatic guarantee by any means. There are a lot of 2-loss teams that would leapfrog the Fighting Irish if they win out – Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and Michigan. Notre Dame just needs to root for a few losses for those teams – and no bid-stealers in the Big 12 or ACC.
9. Texas Tech
Let me present the nightmare scenario for any SEC, Big 10, or Notre Dame hopeful to make the CFP: Texas Tech beats BYU this week, and both teams win out the rest of the season. This would have both reach Dallas for the Big 12 Championship at 11-1, and the committee set the precedent last season to not punish teams for losing in the Conference Championship.
10. BYU
I am projecting BYU and Texas Tech to both win out after their meeting this weekend, which would put both into the CFP. However, that 2-bid Big 12 would instantly fall to 1 should either of these teams lose, as they do not boast the wins to build the same resume as a Big 10 or SEC team.
11. Louisville
It was the weekend of chaos in the ACC, as Miami and Georgia Tech both lost. The Louisville Cardinals escaped unscathed, traveling to Lane Stadium and getting the job done against Virginia Tech. As of right now, they’re my pick to win the league. I don’t think Virginia is one of the top-25 teams in the country, and Louisville is in the driver’s seat with tiebreakers to reach the Championship game, and are likely to win once they get there.
12. Memphis
It was great news for the American Conference that Boise State lost to New Mexico. The only other conference that is in a position to potentially put a team into the G5 spot for the CFP is the Sun Belt, and it would require James Madison to win out. It would also require chaos in the American, but right now, Memphis and QB Brendon Lewis look like the dominant team ready to break away from the pack.
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