I remember my first bet like it was my first kiss. It was the 1986 MLB All-Star Game. I was 16yrs old and working a summer job at my local bowling alley. The establishment was often frequented by a person called a bookie. Long before there was Fanduel and casinos everywhere, with sports betting as easy as a short drive or turning on your cell phone, there were bookies.
I had never made a bet, but the All-Star Game seemed like a sure thing. Roger Clemens was starting for the AL squad, and back then, starters went 3 innings. As a Boston boy, I watched Clemens all year in amazement…he was unhittable. I knew I wanted to bet the AL in the game. My logic was that the NL wouldn’t score off of Clemens which effectively made it a nine-inning game vs a six-inning game. It was a small bet, but it was like a million dollars…I was hooked.
Fast forward to this All-Star Game. The NL is a small favorite at -126. The AL is +108. In the Stone Age, you could only bet on the outcome of the game. Today, you can literally bet on every pitch. For the record, I like the NL in the game.
I have an angle for you to possibly cash in. Instead of just betting the AL or NL to win the game, take a flyer on a few MVP options, and depending on how aggressive you are will determine your potential windfall.
First, pitchers don’t pitch more than one inning in this game anymore. A starter may go two innings, but that’s the limit. Unless Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes does something like striking out five out of six batters, and their team wins a 1-0 game, a position player will surely win the MVP award.
There was a time when some of the starters played the whole game, but today, the majority of players get one at bat, and head for the showers. Only the elite of the elite get more than one AB…names like Ohtani and Judge will probably stick around for a while. Coincidentally, they are the two favorites to win the MVP. Ohtani is at +550, and Judge is at +750. If you place $100 on each of them and if either of them win, you’ll either win $450 or $650.
I would focus on the starters, because the vast majority of reserves will only get in as a pinch hitter. Two other starters you may want to consider are Riley Greene who is batting second in the AL lineup. His odds are sitting at +4000. And on the NL side, taking Kyle Tucker, who’s batting seventh. His odds are sitting at +3200.
You could look at the two starters at first base. Batting fifth for the AL, Vladimir Guerrero Jr is sitting at +2700, while his NL counterpart, Freddie Freeman is sitting at +2300. He’s hitting cleanup for the NL squad.
You could throw $100 on all four of these players, who are all starting and all viable choices to win the MVP, risking $400, and win anywhere from $2000 to $3700. Out of these four players, I have a feeling about Freeman. He’s coming back to his first team’s home stadium, where there are bound to be a ton of Freeman fans who will give him a hero’s welcome. His manager, Dave Roberts, is batting him cleanup and will most likely get a couple of at-bats. And with Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr, and Ketel Marte in front of him in the batting order, Freeman is likely to be up with a ton of runners on base. And as proven by last year’s World Series, he likes the moment and is a big game player.
If you want to spread it around, these would be the handful of guys I’d consider, but if you want to throw the dart and hit the bullseye, it feels like the stars are aligning for Freeman at +2300.
