From an offensive perspective, with the exception of Max Kepler, the Philadelphia Phillies return their lineup from last year. That’s not necessarily a bad thing when we are talking about a lineup led by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber. On the pitching side of things, Christopher Sanchez looks to continue his breakout, while Jesus Luzardo could prove to be a strong addition as long as he stays healthy.
Breakout – Christopher Sanchez
Not only did Christopher Sanchez have a strong 2024 season, but helium has followed him throughout the offseason. The left-hander burst onto the scene with career highs across the board as he made 31 starts in 181.2 innings. Sanchez had a 3.32 ERA, with a 3.56 xERA and 3.00 FIP, while showing multiple signs of success. He walked just 2.18 batters per nine innings to go along with a 57.4% ground ball rate while allowing only 0.54 home runs per nine innings. Despite throwing with high velocity, Sanchez only struck out 7.58 batters per inning, but he has shown the ability to boost that number. Once that happens, Sanchez will really be ready to take the next step.
Sleeper – Max Kepler
After Max Kepler struggled last year, hitting just eight home runs in 105 games. Health came into play here as Kepler left Minnesota after spending his whole career with the Twins. This isn’t to suggest that Kepler is going to turn back the clock to 2019 when he hit 36 home runs with 90 RBI, but in 2023, he did finish with 24 home runs and 66 RBI in 130 games. Once you develop and show a skill, you own it, but Kepler is being viewed as if that performance didn’t exist.
Bust – Jordan Romano
Closers come and closers go. It doesn’t take much for them to fall out of favor, regardless of how successful they might have been. In 2022 and 2023, Romano saved 36 games each season, but last year was a disaster. Yes, Romano did have a 6.59 ERA, but he only made it through 13.2 innings due to health issues. The veteran opens the season in the closer’s seat after 8.2 scoreless innings in Spring Training. However, the Phillies invested just one year and $8 million in Romano, so there’s nothing stopping them from moving on to one of their other options should Romano struggle from either a health or performance standpoint.
Hitting Prospect to Know – Justin Crawford
After finishing 2024 with 41 games in Double-A, Justin Crawford is ready to take the next step in 2025. The Phillies are promoting Crawford to Triple-A to begin 2025 after finding success last year. Crawford’s power is still developing, and likely it won’t be an elite tool, but he hit .337 with three home runs, 26 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. Prior to that, Crawford stole 27 bases in 70 games in High-A. Between both levels, Crawford had 26 doubles, so there is some pop in his bat. It’s just unclear how much of that we see this year.
Pitching Prospect to Know – Andrew Painter
It’s all about the health. If Andrew Painter was healthy last year, he likely would not longer be a prospect. We haven’t seen Painter pitch in an organized game in the last two years, and his 2025 season will begin in extended spring training. I’m not sure anyone is guilty of this, but Painter shouldn’t be forgotten. The strikeouts were always at an elite level, and there’s no reason not to expect him to continue both his success and strong performance.
C: JT Realmuto
Prediction: .260 AVG, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 65 R, 8 SB
While JT Realmuto is not the catcher he once was, that’s not to say we should completely dismiss the veteran. Instead, it’s adjustment of expectations required after his ISO fell to .163 last year. After stealing 16 bases in 2023, Realmuto stole just two bases in 99 games last year with 14 home runs and 47 RBI. However, he still had a 10.4% barrel rate and 45.9% hard hit rate, so not all is lost.
1B: Bryce Harper
Prediction: .280 AVG, 30 HR, 90 RB, 90 R, 6 SB
It was a tale of two halves for Bryce Harper last year as he hit 21 home runs in the first half of the season before dropping to nine in the second half. However, Harper’s .240 ISO was his highest mark since 2021 as he hit .285 with 87 RBI in 145 games. While his barrel rate dropped to 10.4%, Harper still maintained a 47.2% hard hit rate. There’s still a lot to like with Harper.
2B: Bryson Stott
Prediction: .255 AVG, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 70 R, 28 SB
The attraction here is that Bryson Stott should, once again, flirt with 30 stolen bases after stealing 32 last year. Aside from that, and some runs scored potential, Stott doesn’t offer much else. In 2024, he hit .245 with a .254 xBA but it came with just a 3.6% barrel rate.
3B: Alex Bohm
Prediction: .280 AVG, 17 HR, 95 RBI, 70 R, 4 SB
Batting cleanup has done well for Alex Bohm. The third baseman has driven in 97 runs in each of the last two years and in 2024, he brought his strikeout rate down to 14.2%. Bohm’s upside is limited though by his 9.8 degree average launch angle and 6.5% barrel rate. We do get a strong batting average from Bohm as well which helps compensate for the lack of home runs.
SS: Trea Turner
Prediction: .275 AVG, 22 HR, 75 RBI, 100 R, 30 SB
The question here is whether or not Trea Turner truly moves to the leadoff spot. Should it happen, Turner’s runs scored and stolen bases both have the potential to increase. Last year, Turner hit .295, but based on his .265 xBA, it likely won’t hold at that level. In just 121 games last year, Turner scored 88 runs while stealing 19 bases, so there could be some real potential here from one of the best shortstops in the game.
LF: Max Kepler
Prediction: .255 AVG, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 60 R, 1 SB
The big thing for Max Kepler, is his health after hitting just eight home runs and driving in 42 runs in 399 plate appearances. Projected to bat fifth, Kepler is in position to succeed this season after hitting 24 home runs, along with 66 RBI, 491 plate appearances in 2023. Now, we just need Kepler’s .128 ISO from last year to bounce back to his .191 career mark.
CF: Brandon Marsh
Prediction: .255 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 R, 18 SB
Striking out 32.4% of the time continues to hold Brandon Marsh back, but the outfielder does bring modest power skills to the table with solid speed. The outfielder had a solid 10% barrel rate last year after finishing with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 476 plate appearances.
RF: Nick Castellanos
Prediction: .260 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 75 R, 5 SB
While Nick Castellanos is still a solid outfielder, he’s not entirely the player he was in his prime. However, the outfielder still finished with 23 home runs and 86 RBI last year. This was despite the fact that his barrel rate dropped to 7.9% while his hard hit rate also followed suit to 37.7%.
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Prediction: .230 AVG, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 3 SB
It’s all about the power for Kyle Schwarber. Even though his home runs dropped from 46 and 47 in 2022 and 2023 to 38 last year, there’s still a lot to like. His ISO did drop from .277 to .237 last year, but it’s still at a high level along with a 15.6% barrel rate and 54.9% hard hit rate. It should be no surprise that Schwarber drove in 104 runs in each of the last two years.
SP1: Zack Wheeler
Prediction: 2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 210 K, 14 W
Zach Wheeler continues to be a top pitcher after pitching 200 innings over 32 starts last year. The right-hander struck out 10 batters per nine innings in 2024 while recording a 2.57 ERA (2.80 xERA). There’s nothing to suggest that Wheeler won’t continue his success as the opposition had a hard hit rate of just 33.2% against him last year.
SP2: Jesus Luzardo
Prediction: 4.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 170 K, 11 W
Not only is Jesus Luzardo healthy entering 2025, but he also pitches for a much better team in Philadelphia. With that being said, it was concerning to see his strikeout rate drop from 10.48 to 7.83 per nine innings last year, but there’s no reason why that shouldn’t bounce back this year. While the southpaw did have a 5.00 ERA last year, his 4.59 xERA and 4.23 xFIP also points to Luzardo turning in an improved season.
SP3: Aaron Nola
Prediction: 3.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 190 K 12 W
Aside from 2020, Aaron Nola has started between 32 and 34 games in each season since 2018. It doesn’t get more consistent than the veteran right-hander who continues to be a solid option, even if we are seeing slight declines. Nola’s now down to abut a strikeout per inning, but he still turned in a 3.57 ERA in 2024 with an xERA of 3.72. Between a 7.2% barrel rate and 12 degree average launch angle against, Nola’s still keep opposing hitters off balance.
SP4: Christopher Sanchez
Prediction: 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 145 K, 10 W
The one knock against Christopher Sanchez is that he struck out just 7.59 batters per nine innings last year, but everything else generated optimism heading into 2025. Sanchez had a 3.32 ERA last year and that came with a 3.56 xERA and 3.00 FIP. He brought his home runs per nine innings down to 0.54 last year which shouldn’t be surprising considering his other metrics. The southpaw generated a 57.4% ground ball rate while opposing hitters had a barrel rate of just 5.4% with a 34.3% hard hit rate.
SP5: Ranger Suarez
Prediction: 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 150 K, 11 W
While Ranger Suarez is starting the year off injured, it shouldn’t be long until the left-hander is back. Suarez might not be an exciting option, but there’s a lot to like towards the back end of the rotation. He generated a 51.9% ground ball rate last year with a 3.46 ERA (3.67 xERA). The left-hander struck out about a batter an inning while opposing hitters had a barrel rate of just 5.1% with 6.3 degree average launch angle.
Closer: Jordan Romano
Prediction: 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 60 K, 25 SV
Talk about a steep decline last year for Jordan Romano. The right-hander battled some legit injuries as he pitched just 13.2 innings while struggling to a 6.59 ERA. Romano still averaged 96.6 miles per hour with his fastball and he did save 36 saves in each of the two previous years. There is some doubt as to whether Romano will be the closer for the whole year, but he does have the best chance to hold the job for Philadelphia. It helps that he has experience in the role.
SU1: Orion Kerkering
Prediction: 2.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 70 K, 5 SV
The right-hander and his 97.7 mile-per-hour average fastball velocity bring some upside to the equation. Orion Kerkering is likely next in line for saves in Philadelphia after posting a 2.29 ERA last year. Not only did the right-hander have a 2.29 ERA last year, but he struck out 10.57 batters per nine innings while allowing just 0.29 home runs per nine innings. Between his strikeout potential and 53.5%, Kerkering could be a successful late-inning option.
SU2: Jose Alvarado
Prediction: 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 65 K, 5 SV
At this point, Jose Alvarado has a track record of success in Philadelphia’s bullpen, but he did fight through some struggles last year. The left-hander’s strikeout rate dropped to 9.19 per nine innings last year, but it’s still a solid number, although he did walk 4.09 batters. It shouldn’t be a surprise that his ERA jumped from 1.74 to 4.09.
