Here are previews and predictions for the Texans/Chiefs, Commanders/Lions, Rams/Eagles, and Ravens/Bills games this weekend:
HOU @ KC
The 4th seed Texans head to Kansas City to take on the 1st seed Chiefs in one of two AFC Divisional round matchups. Here are previews and a prediction for how this game will turn out:
When Houston has the ball:
Against the Chargers, Houston was able to control the game flow by feeding running back Joe Mixon, which allowed them to open up their play-action passing game. The Texans know they need to control the time of possession and will do everything they can to try to replicate that game plan against the Chiefs. If Mixon can get 20+ carries, it means that things are going well offensively for the Texans, and the game should be close. If the Chiefs run defense is playing to its top level, then it’ll force Houston to be in obvious passing situations, which is going to create a lot of sack opportunities for Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs defense.
Texans Playmakers:
Nico Collins is the focal point of the Texans passing offense, but the real key is going to be Dalton Schultz. Kansas City has struggled all year long covering opposing tight ends and this feels like a game where Schultz must be heavily involved. The Texans cut Diontae Johnson this past week, who was once again upset with his lack of snaps. Collins is going to see heavy double teams, so it will be incumbent upon John Metchie, Robert Woods, and even Xavier Hutchinson to pick up the slack.
When Kansas City has the ball:
The Texans were able to hold JK Dobbins to a mere 26 rushing yards last week, so neither Isiah Pacheco nor Kareem Hunt feels like they are in a great situation. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is in a fantastic situation. He’s going to be able to take advantage of a weak Texans secondary and should be able to run for a few yards as he escapes the grasp of Will Anderson and the rest of the Texans DL.
Chiefs Weapons:
What makes the Chiefs so difficult to play is that offensively, they have numerous receivers who can dominate. DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce are exceptional against zone coverage schemes, and Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are terrific against man coverage. Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the top cornerbacks in the league but he’s only able to cover one of the receivers, so expect Mahomes to spread the ball around to take advantage of the coverages.
Prediction:
Houston played perhaps its best game of the season in the wild-card round. To expect to go into Kansas City and perform equally as well seems a bit too much to ask.
WAS @ DET
The 6th seed Commanders head to Detroit to take on the 1st seed Lions in one of two NFC Divisional round matchups. Here are previews and a prediction for how this game will turn out:
When Washington has the ball:
The Commanders want to try to establish the run through Brian Robinson Jr from the start. However, Detroit is very solid against the run, and it might force the Commanders to throw a lot of short passes like they did against the Buccaneers. Jayden Daniels seems to thrive with those very quick short passes, which allow for his receivers to make big plays, especially on 1st and 2nd down.
Commanders Pass Catchers:
The two biggest downfield threats for Washington are Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown. Both have exceptional speed and can take the top off an opposing defense. Where the Lions suffer is their secondary doesn’t always cover very well against those types of big-play receivers. Daniels is going to have to take some shots downfield and hope to get a couple of catches or pass interference calls. If the Commanders insist on running the ball, it may be a long day as the Lions will stop Robinson. Another key player for Washington will be Zach Ertz. Ertz only had two receptions in the game against Tamp,a but he is a huge red-zone threat and also has a presence in the middle of the field. He will need to have 5+ catches for Washington to win.
When Detroit has the ball:
Detroit is expecting to have David Montgomery return from his knee injury. Montgomery’s return allows the Lions to feature both running backs (Montgomery and Gibbs) which makes them even more difficult to stop. Montgomery is the bruising running back who runs in between the tackles, and Gibbs is the running back who runs outside and tries to pull off the explosive plays. Look for Detroit to try to wear down Washington’s defensive line as they run the ball at least 25 to 30 times in this game.
Lions Pass Catchers:
What makes Detroit so difficult to stop on offense is that they’re able to throw short passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, but also, at the same time, they’re able to challenge defenses deep downfield with the speed of Jameson Williams. If Detroit is running the ball well, they’ll be able to use their play action to their advantage and find Williams on a couple of deep passes, which could really blow the game wide open. If Williams has 5 or 6 catches for over 100 yards, Detroit may win this game by double digits.
Prediction:
Jayden Daniels is a terrific young quarterback who has a very bright future in the NFL, but Washington seems to be a little light on offense. If given time to throw, Jared Goff should be able to pick apart the Commanders secondary.
LAR @ PHI
The 4th seed Rams head to Philadelphia to take on the 2nd seed Eagles in one of two NFC Divisional round matchups. Here are previews and a prediction for how this game will turn out:
When Los Angeles has the ball:
The Rams played one of their best games of the season this past Monday against Minnesota. They dominated on defense and sacked Sam Darnold 9 times. Moreover, Matthew Stafford was able to stick in the pocket and make big throws when he needed to. The Rams offense revolves around Kyren Williams, who should get about 20 carries in this game. Philadelphia was able to hold Josh Jacobs to 81 yards, but Los Angeles is very stubborn and will continually give the ball to Williams, hoping that he can get three and four yards a carry.
Puka and Kupp:
The Eagles secondary has been top-notch this season but they’re playing Matthew Stafford who is one of the most fearless quarterbacks in the pocket. He’s willing to take the big hit to make a play, and he’s got a very large cadre of receivers to throw to. Puka Nakua is one of the best zone coverage receivers in the league, and it is time for Cooper Kupp to re-emerge after being relatively unused for the past six weeks. Tyler Higbee left the game against Minnesota with a chest contusion, so it’s uncertain if he will play again. If he is out, expect, Colby Parkinson to regain the starting job and to have a role against Philadelphia.
When Philadelphia has the ball:
Philadelphia knows its identity on offense: they are clearly a running team. They ran the ball 34 times against Green Bay for 169 yards for a 5.0 YPC. The Eagles want to give Saquon Barkley the ball at least 25 times to establish their offense. The last time these two teams played, Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns and dominated the game. He’s going to have to do similarly this week for the Eagles to advance.
Eagles Pass Game:
What Jalen Hurts does so well is that when he’s feeling the pressure, he’s able to run and escape the pass rush and use his mobility to keep plays alive. He’s going to need to do that against a very active young Rams pass rush. What is concerning is that Philadelphia’s passing attack is quickly becoming their biggest weakness. Hurts has a huge arm but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has done everything possible to limit him from throwing the ball too much during games. Against Green Bay, he only had 13 completions for 131 yards. A.J. Brown only had one reception on three targets, and DeVonta Smith had four receptions on 4 targets. The Rams are a pass funnel defense, and they allow a lot of yards to opposing wide receivers on the outside. Philadelphia is going to have to take advantage of that, even though they might be uncomfortable doing so. The last time these teams played earlier in the season, A.J. Brown had 6 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown; he’s going to need to have a similar game in order for the Eagles to win.
Prediction:
This is a very tough matchup for Philadelphia, as the Rams are a balanced team with a strong pass rush. However, if Philadelphia opens up their offense just a little and finds AJ Brown with regularity, they should have just enough to pull out a close game.
BAL @ BUF
The 3rd seed Ravens head to Buffalo to take on the 2nd seed Chiefs in one of two AFC Divisional round matchups. Here are previews and a prediction for how this game will turn out:
When Baltimore has the ball:
When Baltimore signed Derrick Henry this past offseason, they were looking at what he would be able to do in the playoffs to help them get back to the Super Bowl. Against Pittsburgh, one of the top run defenses in the league, Henry had 26 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns, leading the Ravens to victory. When Baltimore played Buffalo earlier in the season, Henry had 24 carries for 199 yards and a touchdown. While it’s unfair to expect the same production, they will lean on Henry just as heavily this time around. By giving Henry 25+ carries, it keeps the time of possession in the hands of Baltimore and more importantly, it keeps Josh Allen off the field.
Lamar Jackson:
Jackson only threw the ball 18 times when these teams met earlier in the season, and I doubt he’s going to throw more than 25 to 28 times this week in Buffalo. Jackson’s going to use his legs as much as possible and find some timely passes downfield. When Baltimore struggles, it’s often in the passing game. Without Zay Flowers (who is likely to miss this game with a knee injury), the Ravens are going to have to rely on Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. The Bills have done well in tight end pass coverage, so either Rashod Bateman and/or Nelson Agholor will need to step up so Baltimore is not so reliant on the run game.
When Buffalo has the ball:
When these teams played in Week 5, the Bills had not found their offensive identity just yet. The team only ran for 81 yards on 23 carries as Baltimore’s defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage. Since that game, Buffalo has taken a huge step and is now one of the top running teams in the AFC. Not only has James Cook proven to be one of the top running backs in the league, but Josh Allen is more than capable of rushing for 60 to 80 yards per game and getting key first downs when necessary.
Josh Allen:
Something clicked for Josh Allen later in the season when he exploded not only with his arm but also with his legs. When the Bills played the Ravens the first time around, they did not have Amari Cooper. Cooper will make a big difference in this game as he is the best receiver the Bills have against man coverage. Khalil Shakir is fantastic against zone coverage, as is Dalton Kincaid at tight end. Allen is going to need to throw the ball about 35 to 40 times, as it’s expected to be a back-and-forth game.
Prediction:
This game may come down to the coin toss to see who gets the ball first in the second half. If Buffalo can stop Henry on the early downs and force Jackson into obvious passing situations they have a real shot to win. However, if Henry runs against the Bills this week like he did against them earlier this season, the Ravens will win this game comfortably, just like they did the last time.
