The Packers are a very interesting team heading into 2024. Fantasy drafters are confident that Green Bay will have a good offense, but they are not at all sure who will be carrying the load for that offense (aside from Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love). The Packers don’t have a single receiver with top-30 ADP at the position (per Underdog Best Ball drafts), but they are the only team to have four different receivers being drafted in the top 150 picks. Only two other teams, the Seahawks and Texans, have even three such WRs. And this is without mentioning the great Luke Musgrave vs. Tucker Kraft debate. Let’s take a look back at 2023 to see if we can pick apart which players are worth targeting from this up-and-coming unit.
Ground Rules: Check out the first edition here for a full explanation of what’s going on. All scoring is Half-PPR, Week 18 stats are not included (so a full season is 16 games), and only players currently being drafted in the top 200 of Underdog Best Ball drafts are covered.
Quarterback
Jordan Love
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 311.5; QB5
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 19.5; QB6
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 19.5; QB6
It’s easy to forget now, given how hot he and the Packers finished the season, but there were times during Love’s first year as a starter when he had more doubters than believers. As late as Week 11, I was saying that “A couple of bad weeks in a row following a hot start really tanked the general perception of Jordan Love, but he is quietly the QB11 in fantasy football.” But there was nothing quiet about Love’s finish to the season. Even with his receiving corps banged up, Love went on a tear, finishing as the QB2 over the last eight weeks of the season, including five top-10 weekly finishes. It wasn’t just his fantasy output that changed, either. In Weeks 1-10, Love averaged just 6.48 adjusted yards per attempt and earned a 68.0 PFF Passing Grade. From Week 11 onward, playoffs included, those numbers were 8.75 and 88.1. Finishing up back on the fantasy side, I do think there is some reason to expect regression for Love: Between his 32 passing TDs and four rushing TDs, Love accounted for an incredible 86% of the Packers’ offensive touchdowns. That’s the same share as Josh Allen, and I don’t think anyone would claim Love is quite the red-zone rushing threat that Allen is. Love was actually nothing special in terms of rushing production, averaging less than 15 yards on under three attempts per game, with only eight true designed rushes (not QB sneaks or scrambles) all season.
Takeaway
I know I ended the above blurb on a negative note, but I’m not actually that worried about Love’s ability to replicate his 2023 numbers. Yes, he is likely due for touchdown regression, at least when it comes to his share of the Packers’ total TDs. But if he maintains the improved level of play he showed over the back half of last season, he should be able to make up for it. After all, he averaged 43 more passing yards per game over the second half of last season, and the Packers as a team scored over seven points (aka one touchdown) more per game. With that in mind, I’m tempted to say Love is undervalued at his current QB9 ADP … but that gets harder once we look at the names he’d have to move above to be any higher. So I’ll just say that Love is a solid pick as a backend QB1 who does have elite upside if he hits the tail end of his range of outcomes … or, fantasy gods forbid, if he gets even better in his second full NFL season.
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Running Back
Aaron Jones
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 103.3; RB40
- Games Played: 10
- Points Per Game: 10.3; RB31
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 5
- Points Per Full Game: 11.5; RB25
As we progress further into the offseason, I’m starting to regret my choice to cover players who switched teams this offseason on their old teams. At this point, it would really make more sense to cover Josh Jacobs in this slot and get to Jones in the Vikings’ article … but I’m committed, so let’s do this.
The story of Jones’ 2023 is simple: injuries. He missed six weeks entirely and either exited early or saw a limited workload in over half of the games he did play. But when he was healthy, Jones was, as he has been for his whole career, a very efficient back. According to SumerSports, he was the sixth-best RB in the league in terms of yards created. He also ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt, and PFF gave him the seventh-highest Rush Grade among qualified RBs. He didn’t grade as well as a receiver as he has in the past, but he still posted a very solid 23% target per route run rate. All of that came together for a fantasy explosion over the last few weeks of the season when Jones was finally fully healthy (and finally saw a full workload). He rushed for over 100 yards in each of the Packers’ final five games, playoffs included, on an incredible 5.7 yards per carry (only De’Von Achane averaged more over the 2023 season). Over those five games, he averaged 17.8 Half-PPR points, which would have been good for RB3 on the season.
Takeaway
It’s tough to know what to make of Jones heading into 2024. He showed at the end of last season that he still has legitimately elite potential, even at 29 years old. But that was on the ascending Packers offense, and now he has moved to the Vikings, who are likely heading for a transitional period with a rookie quarterback under center. Jones also has a history of both injuries and not seeing a particularly full workload (often as a response to those injuries). That second trend may be less of an issue with a new coaching staff in Minnesota … or it may get worse because Ty Chandler is a much better player than A.J. Dillon. At the end of the day, the situation in Minnesota isn’t bad enough to make me pass on Jones’ talent at his RB18 ADP. Kevin O’Connell is a great playcaller, and the Vikings signing Jones to a decent contract even with Chandler already on the roster is a good sign that he will see decent volume. Given that, he should be able to perform at a solid RB2 level, at the very least.
Wide Receiver
Jayden Reed
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 172; WR25
- Games Played: 15
- Points Per Game: 11.5; WR24
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 13
- Points Per Full Game: 10.3; WR35 (No, this isn’t a mistake. Reed actually performed worse if you only count his full game — that’s just a good reminder of the insane variance in this game we play.)
A second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Reed’s rookie season was undeniably a success. He took advantage of the Packers’ banged-up receiving corps to cement himself as one of Love’s top targets, posting a very impressive 23% target per route run rate. His yards per route run ranked 26th in the NFL, and his adjusted yards per route run is even better, ranking 21st of 120 receivers. However, these numbers are per-route for a reason: Reed operated out of the slot on the vast majority of his routes, with his 75.2% slot rate ranking fifth among qualified wide receivers. As a result, even with multiple other Packers receivers missing time due to injuries, he posted a route participation rate above 80% just once and averaged a very uninspiring 63% participation rate (although that is slightly depressed by his own injuries).
Still, the fact that Reed managed top-24 per-game production on just a part-time role is very impressive. However, Reed’s fantasy success can be partially attributed to a very high touchdown rate, both through the air and in his role as a rushing threat (mostly on end-arounds). He recorded 119 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 regular-season carries and ranked 17th among qualified WRs in touchdowns per reception, particularly impressive for a slot receiver.
Takeaway
The question with Reed heading into 2024 is simple: Is he more than a part-time slot receiver? Making things slightly more complex, that question is actually two distinct questions: Can he be productive lined up outside of the slot, and, even if he can, will the Packers use him that way? The answer to the first question seems to be yes: Reed averaged 1.59 yards per route run on his non-slot routes. That’s not anywhere near as impressive as his overall 1.95 yards per route run, but it’s not terrible — it’s more than either Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson managed in 2023. However, the answer to that second question has so far been a resounding no. Reed ran a grand total of THREE routes in two or one-WR formations as a rookie. Given that the Packers played 11 or 10 personnel (three or more wide receivers) just 62% of the time in 2023, that means Reed’s theoretical snap share ceiling is 62%. With that in mind, there’s no way I’m touching him at his WR34 ADP. Thanks to injuries to the Packers’ other receivers and a high TD rate, last year may have been his ceiling outcome with this usage, and his game-to-game floor will be nonexistent (think of the donut he dropped in the Packers’ first playoff game on a 46% snap share).
Christian Watson
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 87.3; WR61
- Games Played: 9
- Points Per Game: 9.7; WR39
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 8
- Points Per Full Game: 9.7; WR39
If Reed represents one archetype of receiver that fantasy managers love to chase (a high-efficiency guy on a part-time role), Watson represents the other (a high-upside guy who might not actually be good and/or is always injured). The 34th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Watson brings an absolutely elite combination of size and speed, with 4.36 speed at 6’4″. However, he has struggled with injuries, especially recurring hamstring problems, in both of his years in the league. He played just nine games in the 2023 regular season, eventually returning for the playoffs but clearly still playing at less than 100%. When he first returned from injury, Watson was used primarily as a deep threat, but not very effectively. From my Week 10 edition of Beyond the Box Scores:
“Since his return to a full-time role in Week 5, Christian Watson ranks 15th among WRs in air yards, despite the Packers having had their bye in that span. That’s great. But he ranks 71st in fantasy points … not great. On the season, his 48% catchable target rate is third-wost at the position. I’m certainly not saying it’s a bad thing that he led Packer WRs in targets and air yards this week … but it’s also not shocking that he was fourth in fantasy points. Where normally I’d recommend buying low on a player with his usage to fantasy point ratio, I’m staying away.”
It turns out that was a terrible call by me, as Watson scored four touchdowns in his next three games … but then he got injured again. Even in his more productive games, Watson was used primarily as a deep threat: His 16.2 ADOT was the sixth-highest among qualified WRs, and he had only two games above three receptions. For the season, Watson’s 70.3 PFF Receiving Grade and 1.48 yards per route run both land him slightly below average among 96 qualified WRs … although again, the question is what those numbers would have been if he had stayed consistently healthy: In the final two games before Watson suffered his second injury, he posted an 87.4 PFF grade and 2.80 yards per route run, both elite numbers.
Takeaway
I wouldn’t say I’m overly high on him, but rolling the dice with Watson at his current WR44 ADP seems like an okay move. In that WR4/flex range of drafts, I’m looking for upside, and Watson certainly has it, with elite athleticism and a real path to leading this offense in targets. I’m also not a big fan of labeling guys as “injury-prone” (although reoccurring hamstring issues may be one of the few exceptions to this rule), which I think is pushing Watson’s ADP down. Watson hasn’t shown enough yet to make me want to reach for him above his ADP, but I’m happy taking slightly more than my fair share when his name comes up in drafts.
Romeo Doubs
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 144.9; WR35
- Games Played: 16
- Points Per Game: 9.1; WR45
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 16
- Points Per Full Game: 9.1; WR45
Unique among this Packers WR room, Doubs played the entire 2023 fantasy season healthy (although he did get injured in Week 18), but he simply didn’t do that much. Especially as the season went on, he was unable to command a large target share in this crowded offense despite seeing the field plenty. In Weeks 5-17, he easily led Packers receivers with an 85% route participation rate but averaged just a 15% target share (5.0 per game). To be fair to Doubs, he did outperform Watson in both yards per route run and PFF Grade, ranking just about average in both categories. He also showed up for the Packers in the playoffs, with lines of 6/151/1 and 4/83.
Takeaway
At first, it seems insane that Doubs is being drafted lower than Watson at WR49, as he outperformed his fellow sophomore in just about every way in 2023. But Watson has a much higher upside (perceived upside, at least), as well as an excuse for his bad performances, thanks to his constant injuries. Doubs simply failed to provide difference-making fantasy production despite a healthy season as the top receiver (in terms of playing time, anyway) for an ascending young QB. With that in mind, I’m not likely to draft him in many traditional Redraft leagues. However, in deep leagues or Best Ball formats, Doubs is technically undervalued — after all, there’s a very real chance he will lead this team in routes again in 2024.
Dontayvion Wicks
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 79.2; WR70
- Games Played: 14
- Points Per Game: 5.7; WR72
Beyond The Box Scores
- Games Played Over 60% Snaps: 4
- Points Per Game Played Over 60% Snaps: 6.3; WR69
For a fifth-round rookie, Wicks’ 2023 season was promising. He didn’t see the field much, but when he did, he was effective. He managed a solid 77.0 PFF Receiving Grade, landing himself 29th of 96 qualified WRs and first among this young Packer quartet. His 1.94 yards per route run landed him just behind Reed at 1.95, but he was actually more effective than his fellow rookie both in the slot (2.50 vs. 2.07) and outside of the slot (1.63 vs 1.59) — Simpson’s Paradox is at work here, as Wicks ran just 35.7% of his routes in the slot. Lining up outside was good for Wicks’ usage in that he did stay on the field in two or one-WR sets (57 routes in those situations), but bad in that he was the odd man out when all four WRs were healthy: He averaged just a 33% route participation rate in the five games where that was the case.
Takeaway
I’m in on Wicks at his WR66 ADP. I know I sound like a broken record, but the later I get in the draft, the more I’m chasing upside. So, yes, Wicks does have a nonexistent floor if he remains the fourth in line for snaps in a healthy receiving room. But he was the best of the bunch on a per-route basis last season as a rookie. And, unlike with Reed, there’s no reason to think he won’t ever see a full-time role. Watson or Doubs could get injured again, or Wicks could simply earn his way above them on the depth chart. If that happens, he will almost certainly far outperform this price, so he’s a very solid dart throw in the late rounds of drafts.
Tight End
Luke Musgrave
The Box Scores
- Total Points: 56.6; TE32
- Games Played: 10
- Points Per Game: 5.7; TE21
Beyond The Box Scores
- Full Games Played: 8
- Points Per Full Game: 6.4; TE19
Given that rookie tight ends aren’t supposed to do much, Musgrave started his career strong. As early as his third week in the NFL, he led the Packers in both routes and targets. He suffered a concussion in Week 4 but was back with seven targets in Week 5. However, things slowed down for him after that (perhaps not coincidentally with the return of Christian Watson), and he was essentially a classic TD-or-bust tight end over the next few weeks before a lacerated kidney essentially ended his rookie season. He returned for Week 18 and the Packers’ two playoff games but played fewer than 30% of snaps in each one — it’s not entirely clear whether his low snap counts came because he was still recovering from the kidney issue or because he had been overtaken by the Packers’ other rookie tight end, Tucker Kraft. For what it’s worth, Musgrave graded better than Kraft as a receiver according to PFF and in terms of effiiciency, but the third-rounder was a much better blocker. Compared to the rest of the league, Musgrave’s receiving metrics were just okay. His role also wasn’t ideal, as he blocked more and lined up outside less than you would hope for in a fantasy tight end.
Takeaway
I’m not particularly enthusiastic about Musgrave. Given his mediocre receiving metrics and usage in 2023 and the crowded state of the Packers’ offense, I don’t seem many paths for him to finish as a top-12 tight end. And any tight end outside the top 12 (usually, even a few in the top 12) isn’t worth anything in most league formats. In Best Ball or 2-TE formats, I guess he’s an okay volume pick at TE17 in ADP. But otherwise, he’s not wroth drafting … and I haven’t even mentioned Kraft, who a lot of people believe will cut into Musgrave’s role, in this blurb.