Welcome to Week 16 all! Congratulations to everyone that has made it this far in their league as it has been a crazy season with injuries. For this week, there are some obvious matchups that we will want to exploit. The following games are the best to exploit from a total game points perspective as well as the players you can start in them. Good luck and more importantly, have fun!
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
We have 2 great quarterbacks in this matchup in Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins and Dak Prescott for the Dallas Cowboys. Both are good starting options for your leagues this week as this game has the highest implied game total of 50. Let’s take a closer look at their stats.
Tua Tagovailoa
- 458 pass attempts, 325 completions
- 3,921 yards
- 25 TDs, 10 INTs
- 232.2 Fantasy Points
Dak Prescott
- 484 pass attempts, 333 completions
- 3,639 yards
- 28 TDs, 7 INTs
- 278.8 Fantasy Points
In addition to the QBs being great starts in this game, all pieces of the passing and rushing game are in play here. One of the top pieces for Dallas is RB Tony Pollard, who should see a lot of passing volume in this game. He is averaging 5.2 targets per game since Week 11 and a 15% target share. Miami is good against the run, but Pollard will see enough volume in this game to make him a viable starting option. CeeDee Lamb is also always a viable option, the only thing I am worried about is if Jalen Ramsey follows him like he did to Garrett Wilson last week. Xavien Howard should also be back this week, so this may be a more difficult matchup this week for Lamb, but he is still an option as he has scored a touchdown in the last six games and has been seeing double-digit targets.
On the Dolphins side, RB Raheem Mostert has a nice matchup against a Dallas team that just got gashed by James Cook of the Bills last week. Johnathan Hankins is missing from the Cowboys’ defensive line and that is allowing RBs right through and down the field. I rate Mostert a must-start this week in fantasy leagues and in DFS. De’Von Achane, if suiting up, is a viable flex option this week. As far as WRs are concerned, if Tyreek Hill plays you start him and don’t question it.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
This is the other game this week that offers much upside with great stud players on both sides and a decent backup QB option in Nick Mullens. This game has an implied total of 47, so let’s look at some of the players that stand out in this game.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff does not play as well on the road, but he is averaging 270 passing yards and 20 fantasy points per game when playing in domes since the 2022 season. This is a divisional rival and Goff knows what he has to do to win this game and take his team to the next level. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Goff is average against the blitz this season, completing just over 62% of his passes. On the other hand, Minnesota is coughing up the league’s fifth-highest completion percentage off play-action passes this season. Goff a good start in both fantasy leagues and DFS this week.
On the other side of the ball, we have Nick Mullens. Mullens got the start last week and threw for 303 yards, two TDs, and two INTs. The Lions are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season, so as questionable as Mullens may seem, we can’t forget that he is a veteran and has elite pass catchers in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and rookie Jordan Addison. I would not bench a stud QB to start Mullens, but if you are in need of a viable option, he can be started.
There are a couple must-starts in this game in addition to the quarterback options. The players that stand out the most are Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Rookie RB Gibbs has been outstanding this season in the Detroit backfield. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and the only other RB in the league that has more runs of 20 yards is Christian McCaffery. He shares the backfield with David Montgomery, but Gibbs is outplaying him on all stats.
Justin Jefferson is the stud of studs in this game. In his first full game back from IR, Jefferson caught seven passes on 10 attempts for 84 yards. Justin had a target share of 30%, being the highest on the team. He is a start, and on DraftKings he is way too cheap at $8,100, so lock him in before his price skyrockets.
On the Detroit side of the ball, we have Amon-Ra St. Brown. ARSB has had 12 games with either 90+ receiving yards or a TD. He has a team target share of 28% and a target share of 30% against the blitz. ARSB is a start this week against the Minnesota Vikings.
The last guy I want to highlight is T.J. Hockenson. I was not impressed with his game last week as he had the best matchup in the league for TEs, but there is a revenge narrative to exploit this week as Hockenson will be facing his former team. In addition to the revenge game, Detroit gives up the fifth-most touchdowns to opposing TEs. Hockenson is a viable start this week.
