At this time last season, fresh off a disappointing 20-17 loss to the Cowboys, the Bengals were synonymous with “Super Bowl hangover.” Lackluster play from Joe Burrow (four interceptions) and inconsistent performances from the team’s skill position stars left Cincinnati in an 0-2 hole that would be tough to climb out of.
Then, the defending AFC champions rebounded, reeling off win after win en route to a 12-4 record and another division title. The takeaway? Count out Burrow’s Bengals at your own risk.
While this season is far from over, many of the team’s September struggles have returned. It’s hard not to believe Cincinnati can return to form, as they’ve proved everyone wrong before. However, unlike last season, there are more causes for concern. Is this another bump in the road, or could the Bengals (and your fantasy teams) scuffle toward mediocrity?
Broken Burrow?
The buck in Cincinnati stops at Joe Burrow. The franchise’s elevation into the sport’s elite would be impossible without the former number-one pick. Burrow, in spite of his offensive line, has put up eye-popping statistics. Since 2021, he’s ranked among the league’s best in passing yards (fifth), touchdowns (third), and completion percentage (second).
Given his track record of success, it was easy to brush off Burrow’s preseason calf injury as a mere setback. The ailment, which first popped up in August, has yet to sideline the QB, but a re-aggravation last Sunday has put Burrow’s status for Monday night’s game against the Rams in doubt. When asked about his status following Sunday’s loss to the Ravens, Burrow said, “it’s hard for me to say right now.”
The glass-half-full view is that Burrow’s injury could explain his lackluster performances in 2023. Week 1 in Cleveland was a rainy, miserable affair for a Cincinnati offense that threw for just 81 passing yards. The Ravens’ loss saw the team show more fight, but ultimately left the team in their current 0-2 predicament. Through two weeks, the Bengals are 30th in passing yards, just ahead of Zach Wilson’s Jets and two spots below Desmond Ridder’s Falcons. It might be the result of calf pain and early-season rust, but the former will be difficult to heal over the course of a grinding NFL season.
Despite his struggles, it’s foolish for fantasy managers to cut bait with Burrow. A typically consistent passer, even one of the game’s greats, is allowed a few bad outings. Still, that level of patience can only last so long, especially with injury concerns looming.
Chase-ing Production
Ja’Marr Chase, the yin to Burrow’s yang since their days at LSU, has seen his receiving output dip dramatically to start the year. With a combined 17.2 PPR points this season, Chase has already had two games with under ten points, a mark he surpassed in all of his contests in 2022.
One of the biggest differences for Chase, and the entire Bengals’ offense, is an inability to stretch the field. This season, the Cincinnati WR1 has yet to record a catch longer than 13 yards, creating some frustration. “Maybe we’ll move me around some more, and we’ll just see some adjustments,” Chase said Monday, “I’m getting a lot of bubble screens, so definitely gotta take some more shots, like I just said.”
Chase’s comments are rooted in fact; Burrow has just one passing attempt of more than 30 yards this season. That mark falls below signal-callers such as Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, and Sam Howell. Chase, along with Cincy’s other talented pass-catchers, have been relegated to possession receivers. It’s easier said than done, but Burrow and head coach Zac Taylor need to stretch the field to give this offense a much-needed jolt. Using a six-foot monster on shallow routes and screens doesn’t move the needle.
Can the Bengals return to form? It’s still the most likely scenario. One of the game’s best rosters suffering through a team-wide regression isn’t realistic, and the quality of the defenses the team faced to open the season did them no favors. That doesn’t mean a dip in production is impossible to rule out. The general public might brush off a Cincinnati regression after last season’s turnaround, but the situation feels more dire in 2023. Burrow’s calf issues, along with some worrying passing trends, can’t leave fans or fantasy managers feeling optimistic. Monday night is a make-or-break opportunity in Cincinnati; the Bengals have what it takes to stem the tide, but things could go south in a hurry at 0-3.