With four weeks now left in the NFL season it has become a war of attrition. There are now seven teams who have been eliminated from playoff contention. Six in the AFC, (The Browns, Jaguars, Jets, Titans, Patriots, and Raiders)…while in the NFC only the Giants have been eliminated. A full 15 our of 16 teams in the NFC still mathematically have chance.
In Monday night’s game, the Bengals saved their season at least for one more week. The win raised them to the 10th seed in the AFC with a 5-8 record, and 3% chance of making it to the postseason. The loss dropped the Cowboys to 5-8 in the NFC, with less than a 1% shot at season the postseason. They haven’t won a game at home all year, except for the Giants game, and they aren’t going anywhere but home for the playoffs.
At 12-1, the Chiefs have won their ninth consecutive division title, and all but secured the no.1 seed, and sole bye in the AFC. But their pt differential of only +56 has them behind three fellow AFC teams who have 8-5 records. The Broncos pt differential is +71, the Chargers is +70, and the Ravens is +65.
Of course, the record is all that matters, but at some point these close games week after week have to come back to haunt the Chiefs. This is about as vulnerable as I’ve seen the Chiefs in awhile.
In the AFC, the Broncos are sitting at 8-5 with the seventh seed and last playoff spot. In order ahead of them are the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Texans, Ravens, and Chargers. Realistically these seven teams will all be headed to the playoffs.
In the NFC, the Rams are sitting with the no.8 seed, with a 7-6 record and 30% chance of making it to the postseason. They are one game behind the 8-5 Seahawks for the NFC West division title. And they are one game behind the 8-5 Washington Commanders for the seventh seed. Playing each of their divisional rivals the rest of the way, as well as a game against the Jets, they have control of their fate…if they run the table they are gauranteed of making it to postseason action, and even a loss doesn’t kill their chances. I’ve said it all season…if they can make it in, they are a very dangerous team that no opponent will want to face; just ask the Bills.
Patriots first year HC Jerod Mayo is seemingly coaching for his future. Reports out of Foxboro are saying that his return to the sidelines next season may depend on how the team plays the last month of the year. The wins and losses may not as matter as much as how they play, and that may be good since they are facing the Bills twice, Arizona, and the Chargers. If they win one of the last four it will be an accomplishment.
The schedule this time of year can be so much fun. So many teams are playing for their playoff lives, so many of these regular season matchups can feel like the postseason. This is also the time of year where some games between two teams in different conferences could be Superbowl previews. This week, there are three. The Steelers are facing off against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Bills coming off their tough loss in Los Angeles, are playing in Detroit against the Lions. And Tampa Bay is heading to Los Angeles to play the Chargers, who are coming off a tough loss against the Chiefs.