The calendar has now turned to May, there might be a meme or two out there about it, and the baseball season is humming along. There’s never a shortage of excitement and things to note, so let’s take a look at some items that caught my attention.
The Judge Has Spoken
Who needs Juan Soto? No one is ever going to argue that the outfielder is disposable, more on that shortly, but apparently Aaron Judge really doesn’t care who is hitting in front of or behind him. Quite simply, it’s hard to call Judge anything but the best hitter in baseball.
Through his first 31 games of the season, Judge’s production has to be made up. Either that, or it’s something from a video game. All he’s doing is hitting .427 with 10 home runs, 32 RBI, and 29 runs scored with three stolen bases for good measure. If it’s OBP you are after, his 15% walk rate brings that up to .521.
Judge’s BABIP of .506 is crazy, I know hard-hitting analysis, and his .354 xBA is still very much Triple Crown worthy. With a 23.8% barrel rate and 57.3% hard hit rate, Judge is punishing the ball on his way to another MVP.
Soto Awakens
Of course, it came as part of a losing effort for Juan Soto and the New York Mets, but the outfielder turned a corner on Thursday. He hit his fourth and fifth home runs on the season, but more importantly, they were his first two that came at home.
The Mets signed Soto to be an RBI and power threat, not to draw walks. In fairness to Soto, he is walking more than he strikes out (17.1% to 14.3%), and there’s something to be said for that. But a .252 batting average and 14 RBI is not what anyone signed up for here.
However, it’s still a month into the season, and there’s a degree of pressure associated with a big contract and playing for a new team. Give him time, but perhaps these home runs are him turning a corner.
The Burger is Well Done
Yes, that pun is cringeworthy, but let’s have some fun. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m guilty here. I thought Jake Burger was in a fantastic spot and would have a great year with the Texas Rangers. After all, he hit .250 in each of the last two seasons with the Miami Marlins while averaging 31.5 home runs and 78 RBI.
Instead, Burger is hitting .190 to begin the season with just three home runs and 12 RBI. Those struggles earned Burger a trip to Triple-A so he could work through his early-season struggles. At .140, his ISO is well below his previously established levels, but are things really that bad for him?
His .223 xBA doesn’t offer as much upside as we’d like, but Burger’s 12.9% barrel rate and 48.6% hard hit rate point to the fact that this could be a short trip to the minor leagues.
Robert Runs Wild
The Chicago White Sox aren’t very good. No offense to the players that are taking the field for them each night, but it feels as if their organization doesn’t want to be very good. You really need a scorecard to figure out who is in their lineup each night aside from Luis Robert.
The good news for Robert, knock on wood, is that he’s healthy to begin the season. Entering action on Friday, Robert has a stolen base in each of his last five games. That speed certainly is a bright spot for Robert as he’s up to 13 stolen bases on the season which is on pace to smash his previous career high of 23.
On the flip side, Robert’s also hitting .183. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t that unreasonable for him, but with a .238 BABIP there should be some improvement even if his .224 xBA doesn’t totally reflect that.
Robert only has four home runs and a .144 ISO, but he has a solid 13% barrel rate. The problem, is his 16 runs scored and 13 RBI as a result of his lack of lineup support.
Perdomo is Rolling
Jordan Lawlar who? Nothing against the top prospect who is ripping it up in Triple-A, but shortstop doesn’t look like it will be available to him anytime soon. That’s because Geraldo Perdomo is off to a fantastic start this year.
He’s already reached his career high of five home runs while batting .275 with 25 RBI, 16 runs scored, and seven stolen bases. Across the board, Perdomo should eclipse his career marks in all categories. The production is being driven by a .183 ISO, but there has to be slight concern considering his 5.9% barrel rate and 32.4% hard hit rate. That’s not a knock on Perdomo, but we do need to temper the excitement slightly.
Gallen Loves New York
On the surface, it’s been a tough year for Zac Gallen. It’s an interesting note that both of Gallen’s victories this season have come in New York, against both the Yankees and Mets. Yesterday, Gallen showed what he’s capable of by pitching six innings of one-run ball while striking out eight.
That brought the right-hander’s ERA down to 4.93, but his 4.03 xERA continues to point us in the right direction. It’s still early, so Gallen’s 1.41 home runs allowed per nine innings could improve, but it’s the 4.23 walks per nine innings that are concerning.
It was a good sign that he only walked three batters, as that’s driving his struggles. Once Gallen can manage his control and command, the right-hander should get back on track.
Springs Gets on Track
To say that it has been an up-and-down season for Jeffrey Springs might be an understatement. After all, he was lit up by the White Sox and then proceeded to shut down the Rangers.
On an overall basis, it’s interesting to see that Springs has been a part of the decision in all seven of his starts with 4-3 record. His 4.98 ERA obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but his 4.32 xERA offers a little optimism. His 57.1% strand rate should normalize and lead to some improvement, but it’s a mixed bag overall. Control has betrayed Springs with 4.46 walks per nine innings. The good news is that the hard hit rate against Springs is just 28.7%.
The metrics are all over the map with Springs, and he should normalize to be a solid rotation option. Just be prepared for some choppy skies.
Rea Outduels Skenes
Even though he allowed three home runs on Thursday, Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the game. But baseball is a special game, and anything can happen on a daily basis. And that includes Colin Rea outpitching Skenes for the victory.
That points us to Rea as his success wasn’t an isolated incident to begin the season. Through seven games, four starts, Rea’s ERA sits at 1.46, with a 2.49 FIP. Rea’s average fastball velocity of 94.2 miles per hour is a career high. He’s keeping the ball in the park while only walking 1.82 batters per nine innings. With just a 5.5% barrel rate, opposing hitters are having issues squaring up Rea which is also contributing to his success.
Clase Struggles
It seems like this is a regular conversation as to which closer has lost his job or is on the verge of a demotion. Today’s installment is Emmanuel Clase and his 6.75 ERA. While there were some doubts about Clase, especially after his rough postseason, I’m thinking any demotion will be short-lived.
Clase is still striking out more than a batter an inning and has been hindered by a .489 BABIP. Both his 3.59 xERA and 2.84 FIP soften the blow. From Cleveland’s perspective, they have a deep stable of options, but there’s nothing to suggest that Clase isn’t returning to form.
Pagan is Running With Things
Between an injury and then a demotion, due to poor performance, for Alexis Diaz, it’s happened by default to a degree. However, we shouldn’t shortchange Emilio Pagan and his eight saves to begin the season. Pagan does have previous experience in the role and, with a 2.51 ERA, he’s off to a strong start once again. He’s striking out about a batter per inning, but the good news is that he’s only walking 1.26 batters per nine innings. There are no imminent challenges to his role, and Pagan’s performance is keeping him in the role.