It’s Juan Soto’s world; we’re just living in it. A little over two years ago, in July of 2022, the Nationals offered Soto a 15yr/$440M deal. It wasn’t that long ago, and he turned it down. Frankly, I thought he was nuts. Normally I side with a player in these matters. They deserve the right to get all the money they can…I honestly believed $440M was all the money. I was wrong.
He bet on himself, and good for him. Scott Boras is his agent, and everyone knows what he represents. For Boras, money translates to respect and what he uses as the scorecard. He may not be the best agent for some of his second-tier clients, but there is no one better when it comes to his whales.
A couple of weeks ago, I speculated that teams would be willing to get into the $500M range, but Boras wanted to push the number to the $600s. I also proclaimed that the Yankees must be the team to prevail. After all, they traded away a ton of talent to acquire him for one season. If they had won the World Series this year, an argument could be made that the trade worked and Soto accomplished the goal of bringing a title to the Bronx. But the team fell short. If the Yankees lose out on the Soto sweepstakes, it will be a gut punch to the franchise.
Their payroll heading into 2025 is about $225M, and signing Soto will take them over the luxury tax. But about $70M comes off the books in 2026. The Yankees can never be out on any player.
But, if any team can compete with them financially, it is their NL counterpart in Queens. Steve Cohen’s Mets have the deepest pockets. They have had the league’s no.1 team payroll over the last two seasons, hovering around $330M. And, if you look at their payroll heading into 2025, they are only sitting with $160M in committed contracts. And going into 2026, that number shrinks to just over $100M. No team in the league can compete with them financially, and they have much financial flexibility.
Another team linked to Soto has been the Dodgers. Last season they were third in team payroll. But they just signed Blake Snell and their team payroll heading into 2025 is currently $262M. In a way, signing Snell early was their message that they are out on Soto. Keep in mind, Snell is also a Boras client.
Recently, the Boston Red Sox have seemingly thrown their hat into the ring for Soto. Call me skeptical. These types of players used to be on the Red Sox’s radar, but recently, they have gone into austerity mode and haven’t been in the mix for any high-profile free agent. In the last few years, they have traded away Mookie Betts and let Xander Bogaerts go to free agency.
They did retain Rafael Devers to a 10-year/$313M deal, but that was as much about PR as it was about baseball. Regardless, owner John Henry has the money and is in the market to dole out the big contracts. And it seems like they have been keeping their powder dry for Soto. They visited him in person, and Devers and David Ortiz have been giving him a full-court press.
Over the weekend, multiple reports have emerged that the Sox have made serious offers to him. A couple have even said it’s a done deal (which it isn’t yet). One report has said the Sox have come in at 12 years/$600M ($50M per season), with no deferred money. That would be the second-highest overall deal in history, with the highest AAV including Ohtani’s deal, which is amortized at $46M per season. Another reported offer by them is 13 years/$625M.
This reeks of Boras driving up the price. I’ve been wrong about Soto all along. I thought he was wrong to turn down $440M with the Nationals, and I never thought his numbers would get this high. I thought the sticking point would be whether the first number was 5 or 6. But it has apparently blown through the $500s and is comfortably in the $600s, with the question now whether or not Boras can get to Ohtani’s $700M figure.
There comes a point when even the Yankees and Red Sox have to tap out. Unless a mystery team comes out of the woodwork, the Mets would effectively be negotiating against themselves. The San Francisco Giants have recently gone after just about every big free agent, and they do have some money to spend with a team payroll of $150M heading into 2025, but this feels like all roads point to New York.
I can’t believe I’m saying these numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the number Boras is looking for is a 15-year deal for $ 720 M. This would make Soto the highest-paid player in the game, ahead of Ohtani’s $700M. And an AAV of $48M also gives him the highest annual salary with no deferment. And at these numbers, there is exactly one team and owner who can and is willing to get there: Scott Cohen and his New York Mets. There just isn’t a scenario I can see where he ends up anywhere else…Happy Holidays, Indeed.