1. Duke – If someone could guarantee me that Cooper Flagg were 100% healthy, I would say they’re the overwhelming favorites to win the whole thing.
2. Wisconsin – The common sentiment is that guard play rules in March, and Wisconsin has two great ones in Tonje and Blackwell.
3. Alabama – If Grant Nelson is out for the tournament, that significantly hurts their chances. Got outscored by 20 against Florida after he went out.
4. Arizona – One last ride for the Caleb Love experience
5. BYU – One of the hottest teams in the country entering the tournament
6. Saint Marys – Have to wonder where they would be seeded had they beaten Gonzaga in the WCC Championship
7. Oregon – I trust Dana Altman to have this team well-prepared and not get upset in the first round, but I question the upside of this roster beyond that.
8. Baylor – the injury to Josh Ojianwuna will hurt defensively and on the glass, but they will enter every game with two of the best players on the floor in VJ Edgecombe and Norchad Omier.
9. VCU – a team that has lost only once since February 1st, and plays some of the best defense you will ever see.
10. Mississippi State – Have plenty of size and depth, but have not done a whole lot away from home this season.
11. Vanderbilt – another middle of the road SEC team that does their best work in the comfort of their own gym.
12. Akron – John Groce’s squad is one of the shortest teams in all of Division I, but that didn’t stop them from thoroughly dominating the MAC
13. Liberty – Winning this iteration of Conference USA is not an overly impressive accomplishment, but beating McNeese, Kansas State, and Charleston in non-conference gives them one of the best non-conference resumes of all mid-majors.
14. Robert Morris – A quality starting 5 for the Colonials. Alvaro Folgueiras is a name to watch out for as a potential transfer up in the offseason.
15. Montana – own a top 100-offensive efficiency rating with their best offensive player, Money Williams, coming off of the bench for the second half of the season.
16. Mount St Marys – the Mountaineers can play some defense – they held all of their MAAC Tournament opponents to under 60 points.
17. American – Matt Rogers has been dominant against Patriot League competition, but I worry if that formula will work against better opponents.