Another week is in the books, and another top seed has dropped their brief hold on a first-round playoff bye. This week, it was the Rams that collapsed under the heavy weight of being the top NFC seed, losing to the Panthers 31-28. Carolina has been alternating wins and losses over their last seven games, and it will be interesting to see if they can break that pattern when they return from their bye to face the Saints. The other teams that will join Carolina in this last week of bye weeks are the 49ers, as well as the Giants and Patriots, who just played on Monday night. The Pats held serve at home, beating New York 33-15, and remain the top seed in the AFC, while the Chicago Bears sit atop the NFC after dominating Philadelphia on Black Friday. Things should only get more interesting from here, as many teams in the playoff hunt will be facing each other over the final weeks of the season, giving these games a playoff atmosphere of their own. Let’s take a look at this week’s matchups and see what we can expect for week 14.
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (-3)
The first game of the week also features the highest expected total of the week, showcasing two teams that have moved in very different directions over the last three weeks but ended up in nearly the same spot. The Lions have been alternating wins and losses for the past eight weeks and have lost two of their last three games, while the Cowboys seem to have turned things around with three straight wins after adding some pieces to their struggling defense. Both teams are currently on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture, and both desperately need this win. The Lions have a slight edge since they’ve been a much better team at home than on the road. Although Dallas has faced struggles away from Jerry World, they will need to slow down a Lions defense that might be without Amon Ra St. Brown. Without St. Brown, Detroit will struggle to keep pace with Dak, CeeDee, and Pickens.
Cowboys 30 – Lions 26
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+7.5)
Talk about two teams heading in different directions. If you’re wondering how bad things have gotten in Atlanta, the Falcons just lost to the Jets this past weekend. It’s that bad. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are cruising through their schedule, dominating the teams they should be beating. The Falcons are the next easy game for Seattle, and they should be able to handle it despite the cross-country trip to Atlanta. The only concern is a back-door cover, like what they allowed to the Titans two weeks ago in a game they led from the start. If I could get the line below a touchdown, I’d feel much better about it.
Seahawks 24 – Falcons 17
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-6)
Joe Burrow made his triumphant return to the Bengals lineup on Thanksgiving, and it has Cincinnati fans dreaming of postseason possibilities even though their team sits at 4-8 for the season. The only reason they have a glimmer of hope is that both the Ravens and Steelers have had troubles of their own and sit atop this division just two games ahead of Cincy at 6-6. While the hope makes for a fun story, especially as we enter the holiday season, it’s not going to last much longer, as this is just a terrible matchup for the Bengals. The Bills are not what they used to be, and they can be beaten by any number of teams in the league right now, but the key to beating them is to run the ball and play tough defense. The Bengals don’t do either of those things particularly well, and relying on Joe Burrow to throw the ball all game plays right into the strength of a Bills defense that is currently ranked number one overall in the league against the pass. It should be a fun game to watch, but I expect James Cook to have a huge day and for the Bills to be able to pull away in the second half.
Bills 37 – Bengals 29
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-4.5)
If you’re wondering who Fox considers the least reliable among their play-by-play crews, let me introduce you to Chris Myers and Mark Schlereth. They’re the fortunate team tasked with bringing the exciting action between these two teams to life with their commentary and insights this weekend in Cleveland. This game might not appear much on the Red Zone channel, so you’ll need to be in the Cleveland or Nashville markets to catch most of it. Of course, that is, unless you have both the NFL Ticket and a terrible gambling habit. Anyway, this game is expected to be close, but for all the wrong reasons. It’s going to be poor football. How poor? It will be a “Cleveland is a 4.5-point favorite” kind of game. The masochists that we are, we’ll tune in to see if Shadeur Sanders and Cam Ward can pick up where they left off during pre-draft workouts and whether this “rivalry” might develop into something interesting. I expect to see plenty of Quinshon Judkins and Myles Garrett, and that should be enough for the Browns to handle business at home.
Browns 19 – Titans 13
Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)
This should be another close game, as both teams have been struggling lately. The Vikings are currently on a 4-game losing streak and have looked completely lost recently. Just when we thought things couldn’t get worse with J.J. McCarthy’s play, Max Brosmer stepped in and posted a stat line that would make Nathan Peterman blush. The Commanders, for their part, have been on an even longer skid, losing seven straight games and still trying to find their footing without Jaydin Daniels under center. McCarthy will return this weekend, and right now, he’s essentially auditioning for the QB1 spot next year. My hope is that he will start by realizing that #18 is open, and even when he’s not, you can still throw him the ball, and he’ll make a play. Despite Washington making things interesting last week against the Broncos, I still favor Minnesota and their defense in this game.
Vikings 22 – Commanders 19
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+2.5)
There seems to be a pattern this week with games involving teams that are just going through the motions for the season. This game is another example where Miami is mainly trying to demonstrate to management that Mike McDaniels still has the Dolphins playing hard every week, while the Jets are trying to prove to the league that hiring Aaron Glenn wasn’t one of the worst decisions of the offseason. Both of those points are quite debatable at this stage. Miami has won three in a row and four of their last five games, and they seem to have more going on right now. The Jets might believe they’ve discovered some hidden talents in the scrap heap with John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell, but both players are still very inconsistent, while Tyrod Taylor is essentially doing the same things Justin Fields was doing—just slower. Aaron Glenn deserves credit for getting this team to compete each week, but they just aren’t very good. This game could go either way, but I’ll choose the team that has more game-changers. Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane are better than Breece Hall, so I favor the Dolphins in this one.
Dolphins 23 – Jets 19
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
The Bucs are sitting at 7-5 with a fragile hold on first place in the NFC South over the 7-6 Panthers, who will be watching this game from their couches while taking the week off with their bye. The Saints are one of the few teams that have already secured a top-10 draft pick for next year, and come into this game just trying to figure out which players on their roster are worth building around for the future. The Bucs can’t afford to mess around in this game; they need to beat the Saints and move to 8-5 since they have Carolina on their schedule twice in the last 3 weeks of the season. Baker made it through last week without issues, so it’s safe to assume he will be back under center against the Saints. Give me Tampa in this one, just don’t lay the full 8.5.
Bucs 27 – Saints 19
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
The AFC South experienced some upheaval this past weekend as the Colts lost to the Texans, and Jacksonville handled the Titans for their third straight win, taking over first place in the division. This division will likely come down to the final week of the season when the Texans and Colts face each other again, while the Jaguars will play against Indianapolis twice over the next four weeks. The Colts are currently in trouble after two straight losses and the news that Daniel Jones is playing with a fractured fibula. They may have also dodged a bullet, as Sauce Gardner left last weekend’s game with what turned out to be a strained calf, not an Achilles injury as initially feared. Gardner will most likely miss this game against Jacksonville, while Jones will continue to play through his injury. That means Jonathan Taylor will need to carry more of the load against a Jaguar defense ranked #1 in the league against the run. This game should be close and will likely come down to which team wins the turnover battle. For this matchup, I’m going with the home team since I think they’ll most likely split their two games. Give me the Jags and that point and a half.
Jaguars 26 – Colts 24
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Both of these teams are dealing with issues right now. Lamar Jackson isn’t himself, and Aaron Rodgers is just done. The Ravens should be able to win this game at home, but I just don’t trust Todd Monken right now. The Ravens abandoned the run too early on Thanksgiving and let the game slip away against the Bengals. The Steelers looked completely outmatched in their game against Buffalo, and Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have enough juice left at his age to play at less than 100%. Neither of these teams should be favored by more than 3 points, so if you can get +6 with Pittsburgh, jump on it before it drops. This game will likely come down to a late field goal. Since, in all likelihood, one of these teams has to win, let’s go ahead and pick the home team to win, but not cover.
Ravens 22 – Steelers 19
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5)
These two teams played a prime-time game a few weeks ago that ended with a Broncos 10-7 victory. Denver has made a habit of letting less-capable opponents hang around in games they should normally win. They did it again last week by needing overtime to beat Washington, who suffered their 7th straight loss. Now they must travel to Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that has lost six consecutive games. Denver is likely to win big, but it’s hard to trust them to cover a spread over a touchdown. Although Denver has won 9 straight games, if you exclude their wins against the two worst defenses they’ve faced in that stretch (Bengals, Cowboys), their average margin of victory shrinks to just 2 points. Some of those wins were against teams like the Jets and Giants, as well as their previous game against the Raiders. Denver should win this game, but I’m hesitant to lay such a large number.
Broncos 23 – Raiders 18
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Bears are currently the top team in the NFC after a thrilling Black Friday win in Philadelphia behind a rushing attack that accumulated 281 yards on the ground. There’s no time for Ben Johnson and his team to rest, as they now have to travel to Lambeau Field to face a Packers team that sits just half a game behind them for both the top spot in the division and the conference. Green Bay handled Detroit on Thanksgiving and will look to keep their momentum after three straight wins. Everyone has been waiting for Chicago to slip up and be passed by the Lions and Packers, but Johnson has this team playing at an elite level right now. This is another situation, as we see around the league, where two division rivals face off twice in three weeks, with these two teams scheduled to meet again in week 16 in Chicago. With that in mind, I believe the Packers will be able to establish the run and hold their own at Lambeau in the first matchup. The spread seems a bit too high for me, as I think both teams will be fresh after the few extra days of rest, and I expect a close game.
Packers 23 – Bears 18
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)
The Rams will look to bounce back after losing in Carolina last week, while the Cardinals return home trying to end their four-game slump following a loss in Tampa. Jacoby Brissett has helped the Arizona offense move the ball, but it hasn’t led to wins for the Cardinals. They just don’t have enough firepower to beat the Rams, even at home, and even if Trey Benson returns from the IR. The Rams are going to come out firing, and I expect Matthew Stafford to connect with both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for touchdowns in the first half. The Cards will do their usual, throwing the ball all over the field as they chase in the second half, but it won’t be enough for more than a possible back-door cover. The Rams will win this game with little trouble.
Rams 33 – Cardinals 25
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The line on this game is purely the result of Vegas understanding that people won’t ever stop believing in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. There is no way that the Texans should be getting points in this matchup, no matter where the game is being played. That being said, it’s not a sure thing that Houston will come into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs. Why not? Well, because of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, duh. The biggest issues with the Chiefs right now are that their defense isn’t able to shut down elite offensive teams, and their offensive line isn’t able to establish the run or protect Patrick Mahomes all that well. This past week against the Cowboys was a perfect example, as the Chiefs were unable to sack Dak Prescott, while Dallas got to Mahomes 3 times. Mahomes has been sacked at least 3 times in the Chiefs last five games for a total of 16, while being sacked only 11 times in Kansas City’s first seven contests. This week, the line will be facing Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who both rank in the top ten in the league with 21.5 combined sacks this season. The Texans will have C.J. Stroud under center again this week as he made his way back from a concussion last week against the Colts. While he didn’t throw for a score, he kept the chains moving against Indy, completing about two-thirds of his pass attempts. The Texans may not have an elite offense, but they do have one of the best defenses in the league, and this defense can travel. The big question will be whether Stroud, Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Woody Marks will be enough to put the Chiefs away. In the end, I think this will be a close game that will most likely come down to a last-minute field goal. Since I’m not immune to the magic of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, I’ll go ahead and pick the Chiefs to win this one by the narrowest of margins.
Chiefs 20 – Texans 19
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
The Chargers are slight favorites in this matchup after beating the Raiders 31-14 last week. The Eagles lost their second straight game of the season after being overwhelmed by the Bears on Black Friday. I feel sorry for AJ Brown’s fantasy managers since he has had his two best games of the season over the last two weeks, and both came in Eagles losses. I expect Philly to return to trying to grind out wins as they did earlier in the season. If they can run the ball on offense and control the line of scrimmage on defense, it could be a tough day for the Chargers, who may have to play without Justin Herbert, who suffered a broken bone in his non-throwing hand last week against the Raiders. Both teams need to win this game; the Chargers sit as the fifth seed, two games behind the Broncos, while Philly holds the third seed, just a game and a half ahead of Dallas for the NFC East lead. I believe Herbert will do whatever he can to play on Monday Night, but the Eagles’ defense is likely to be too strong for the Chargers makeshift line. It should be a close game, but I think the Eagles will win on the road.
Eagles 26 – Chargers 24
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