As we officially move into the second half of the season, we should have a fairly decent idea of what each team is and what they aren’t. We now know there are “haves” and “have-nots,” and a few teams have officially staked their claim as one or the other. The trade deadline has come and gone a few teams have made it official: they’re not competing this season. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to hear that the Jets, Saints, and Raiders have given up on any delusion that this season could possibly get better. What’s far more interesting is to see which teams have made an investment in bolstering their rosters for a playoff run in 2025.
The Jets were the busiest of the sellers as the Colts gave them 2 future 1st round picks along with Adonai Mitchell for Sauce Gardner, and the Cowboys gave them a future 1st along with a future 2nd round pick for Quinnen Williams. The Colts move makes perfect sense, as their one glaring weakness this season has been their secondary play. The Cowboys adding Williams, along with Logan Wilson from the Bengals, is a bit more of ahead scratcher, but that’s what you get when your team’s GM is also the owner. Wilson only cost them a 7th rounder, so it’s not as silly as trading close to the same draft capital to the Jets that they got from the Packers for Micah Parsons for a player who is very good, but not the game-changer that they originally had. Williams has 2 years remaining on his contract for about $50 million, so he’s almost half the price of Parsons. If the plan all along was to save some money and weaken the defense, then mission accomplished.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars made a deal with Las Vegas to add Jakobi Meyers to their depleted wide receiver room, and Seattle added Rasheed Shaheed to their squad to give Sam Darnold another deep threat. It will be interesting to see how these moves help the respective teams involved, but suffice it to say that the Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Seahawks all have aspirations for this year’s postseason. This week, the Cowboys will be off, along with the Chiefs, Titans, and Bengals, so they will have an extra week to get their new defensive players up to speed. Let’s take a look at the matchups for this week’s games and see what to expect.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-8.5)
Denver had their hands full with the Houston Texans and their top-ranked defense last weekend. They managed to escape with the victory thanks to a last-second field goal, and they will now return home to take on a Raiders team that lost in overtime to Jacksonville. The Raiders did get Brock Bowers back last week and he quickly established why he was the top tight end selected in fantasy leagues this year with a monster 3 touchdown day. The Broncos secondary will likely still be without Patrick Surtain, but they are still a good deal better than what the Jaguars have been running out there every week. Look for Denver to get the run going early and grab a lead, allowing their pass rush to do its thing and make life miserable for Geno Smith. The Broncos will win this game, but the 8.5 spread seems a bit rich for my blood as these division rivalry games on short weeks have been close game with the underdogs winning outright on a few occasions (Giants and 49ers). We’re going with the Broncos to win in a close one thanks to Bo Nix taking the first three quarters of the game off yet again.
Broncos 22 – Raiders 16
Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Colts looked downright mortal last week in Pittsburgh as Daniel Jones was pressured all day by T.J. Watt and friends, leading to a bunch of key turnovers (6) that ultimately led to a Steelers 27-20 victory. Not only did Pittsburgh keep Jonathan Taylor out of the end zone, but they limited him to a mere 45 yards on 14 carries for the day. When you consider that the Colts lost the turnover battle 6-1 and only lost the game by one score, you can see Indy really needed to screw things up to lose this game to Pittsburgh. The Falcons managed to keep things close in New England but lost in the end when their now former kicker missed the extra point after the presumed game-tying touchdown. Parker Romo was cut right after the game, and Atlanta will now move onto their 3rd different kicker on the season. Good luck Zane Gonzalez. The Colts just added Sauce Gardner to their secondary and he should slide right in at one corner this weekend, provided he clears the league’s concussion protocol. He will likely be locked up with Drake London and that should be enough to slow down the Falcon offense enough to make a difference. Bijan Robinson is looking to erupt after a few consecutive slow weeks, and he will be up for this matchup featuring two of the best running backs in the league. In the end, if Daniel Jones can take care of the ball, the Colts should win this one by a touchdown.
Colts 27 – Falcons 20
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (-2.5)
The Jets are somehow favored in this game. While it’s true that they haven’t lost in a couple of weeks, that has as much to do with them having a bye in week 9 as it does with Cincinnati having the league’s worst defense. This week, they will face the Browns who are also coming back from their one-week vacation. New York has made the rebuild official by trading away their best two defenders, so it will be tough to see how they manage to keep the Browns to under 17 points or so. The Browns defense is going to make life difficult for Justin Fields, and 17 should be plenty enough for Cleveland to leave Met Life with a victory. Check the status of Quinshon Judkins, who left Cleveland’s week 8 game with a shoulder injury. If he isn’t able to play, this game will be much closer and much lower scoring. Regardless, this isn’t going to be a fun one to watch unless you like watching 3-yard runs and incomplete passes. While Justin Fields has yet to throw an interception, I can see him losing the ball on one of the 6 or 7 times he gets sacked, leading to the touchdown that eventually proves to be the difference in this one.
Browns 16 – Jets 12
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-1.5)
The Texans will be slight home favorites for the third week in a row. After beating San Francisco in week 8 and then losing to Denver in week 9, they will welcome Jacksonville to Houston this weekend. The Houston defense has been swarming every week, and if not for an injury to C.J. Stroud, they very well could be trying for their 3rd straight win. The Jags managed to pull out an overtime win in Vegas as the Raiders went for 2 and failed after scoring what could have been the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left in the extra frame. The Jacksonville secondary has been getting shredded, and their receiving corps has been decimated with injuries to Brian Thomas and Dyami Brown this past weekend after Travis Hunter was placed on IR the previous week. They took Jakobi Meyers with them when they left Sin City in exchange for their 4th and 6th round picks this coming spring, which should eventually help fill the void. I expect this to be a lower-scoring affair if Stroud is unable to clear the league’s concussion protocol and Houston is forced to go with Davis Mills under center. Even with their backup playing, I think Houston’s defense is strong enough to force Trevor Lawrence into making plenty of mistakes. With Stroud, this should be an easy win and cover. Without him, it will be a dog fight, but Houston can still win.
Texans 19 – Jaguars 16
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+9.5)
The Bills are fresh off a big win at home over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, while the Dolphins had a few extra days to lick their collective wounds following their Thursday Night loss in Baltimore. Miami looked decent for 90% of their first half drives last week, but unfortunately, that remaining 10% was littered with fumbles, penalties, and a missed field goal, resulting in a halftime score of 14-6 in favor of the Ravens. When Lamar led the Ravens down the field for a touchdown to start the second half, it was basically over for the Dolphins. They responded by firing their general manager, leading many to believe that coach Mike McDaniels is living on borrowed time in South Beach. There isn’t much hope for Miami to provide much of a fight here other than counting on a letdown by Buffalo following their big win on Sunday night. Basically, Miami will need Buffalo to come out and just lose this game because the Dolphins just don’t have the firepower to beat good teams right now. This will be an easy win and should be an easy cover for the Bills.
Bills 38 – Dolphins 17
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5)
This may no longer be the “Tom Brady Bowl”, but it does pit two potential playoff teams head-to-head in a matchup that nobody would have believed could possibly be a Super Bowl preview in the preseason. Baker and the Bucs should be fairly well rested after their bye, and they will be hosting the Patriots, who snuck by Atlanta thanks to a missed extra point late last Sunday. While Tampa won’t be getting Mike Evans back any time soon, it’s very possible they will get Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving back alongside a fully healed Emeka Egbuka. The Patriot defense was a bit exposed last week by Michael Penix and the Atlanta passing gam,e and I’m sure that Josh Grizzard and Baker Mayfield were taking note. New England has 7 wins in the bank, they will get to keep those, but they really aren’t quite that good yet. I think the Bucs will be able to score plenty of points this weekend and even though Drake Maye has been playing at an elite level, he has shown he can make mistakes in crucial situations. I’ll take the home team in the one.
Bucs 31 – Pats 26
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Vegas is super sharp when it comes to laying odds in pro games and this one is no exception. The Bears won in dramatic fashion last week in Cincinnati, but it really had more to do with how brutal the Bengals are on defense than it did with Caleb Williams and his ability to operate this Chicago offense. That game was all Ben Johnson, who was able to exploit the Bengals and Al Golden’s propensity to play man-to-man defense. He sprinkled in a few trick plays which, when combined with an utter lack of tackling ability, result in well over 40 points being scored. The Giants are a mess right now after losing Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers on offense. Jaxson Dart is doing the best he can with what’s left, but New York just doesn’t have any big play makers. They won’t be able to keep pace with Chicago’s offense here, even if Big Blue’s defense figures out how to stop the run at some point. This figures to be a game littered with some mistakes and turnovers by both sides, but in the end, Chicago just has too many weapons to go along with home-field advantage. I never like when that hook is dangling after a 3 or 7 point spread, but I think it’s safe to go ahead and take the Bears here and just hope we avoid the dreaded back door cover.
Bears 27 – Giants 19
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings (+4.5)
J.J. McCarthy took over as the Vikings quarterback last week in a game that very few felt they had a chance to win in Detroit. The Vikings responded well to their young signal caller and ended the season for many people in Survivor Pools with a 27-24 win over the Lions. McCarthy was efficient, yet not spectacular, doing just enough to keep the Minnesota offense moving in a balanced attack that featured 29 rushing attempts for 142 yards along with his 25 pass attempts. Baltimore welcomed back Lamar Jackson on Thursday night and beat the Dolphins handily once their defense settled down in the second half. Miami was able to outgain the Ravens in the first half but failed to score a touchdown thanks to a few self-inflicted wounds and a questionable penalty call that negated and long completion to Jayden Waddle. The Ravens defense is getting healthier, but they still aren’t very good. A good team is going to exploit their weaknesses on the back end and their inability to rush the passer. I’m not quite sure if Minnesota qualifies as a good team, so this may not be the week that Baltimore gets exposed, but I think most people are rushing too quickly to crown them AFC North Champs. In the end, the Ravens will probably be able to do enough on offense to outlast Minnesota, but I don’t trust them to lay this kind of wood. I’ll take the Ravens to win, but lean towards the home team to cover in a game I’ll most likely avoid.
Ravens 26 – Vikings 23
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
The Tyler Shough era started last week, and it looked eerily similar to the Spencer Rattler era. The Saints managed just a lone touchdown as their defense was unable to contain Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray en route to a 34-10 loss in Los Angeles. This week they will travel to Carolina for a division matchup against a Panthers team that just shocked the Packers in Lambeau 16-13. It was a bit of a weird game as Green Bay managed only 13 points despite Jordan Love throwing for almost 300 yards and the ground game averaging over 4 yards per carry. Carolina was able to win the turnover battle 2-1, and they turned a 3rd quarter interception into a touchdown that proved to be the difference. Despite my opening line in this article, there are a few teams that remain a bit of a mystery to us after 9 weeks. The Panthers are one of those teams. They began the season with 3 road losse,s along with 3 impressive home victories. So maybe they were a team that was dangerous at home and very beatable on the road. They followed those games up with a win at the Jets and then a massacre at home at the hands of the Bills in week 8. Their run defense was the worst in the league last year, and when the season began, we felt like it would be more of the same when they were torn apart by Travis Etienne and the Jags in week 1. They then went on a 6-game tear where they didn’t allow 100 yards to a single back, moving their overall ranking up to 8th in the league against the run. The aforementioned massacre against Buffalo featured James Cook running his own private marathon up and down the field on these Panthers. So, what is this team? The short answer is I just don’t really know. What I do know is that the Saints stink and they’ve just traded away their best deep threat receiver. The Panthers aren’t exactly a team I trust with my life, but I will trust them to give the ball to Rico Dowdle enough to beat New Orleans this weekend.
Panthers 22 – Saints 13
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
The Cardinals crack me up. Really, they do. Sometimes people will say things like “this guy is playing chess while his opponents are playing checkers”. When it comes to Cardinals head coach, Jonathan Gannon, it feels like that while other people are playing chess, he’s playing Twister or Charades. Last week he played all kinds of games during the media portion of his late-week practices. He hid which quarterback he was going to start and paraded out different backs to run with the first team offense leaving many to speculate whether it would be Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett under center. Well, it must have worked, because Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense were so worried about who Arizona was playing on offense, that they forgot how to do the same for Dallas on Monday night. My point is it was a whole lot of nothing. They won the game, so he probably will do more of the same again this week. The Cardinals have already announced that Kyler Murray’s ankle isn’t going to be better until Jacoby Brissett looks like he stinks again (well, they didn’t say it like that, but that’s how I read it). So, Brissett will get the start against the Seahawks in Seattle this weekend. These two teams always play each other way closer than they should, but Seattle is just a much better team than Arizona right now. Sam Darnold is looking like an MVP candidate, so that probably means he will throw 3 interceptions this week, leading to a loss at home against Arizona. While nothing would shock me at this point, I highly doubt that Arizona is able to go on the road two weeks in a row and pull of another upset. I’m taking Seattle to handle their business here and win easily.
Seahawks 31 – Cardinals 20
Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders (+8.5)
Both teams are coming off of a loss, but some losses are bigger than others. While Detroit will need to regroup after they lost the first game after their bye at home against Minnesota, Washington will have to play the rest of this season without their superstar Quarterback, Jaydin Daniels. Washington was blown out by Seattle on Sunday night, but the biggest loss of the night came in the 4th quarter when Daniels went down awkwardly and dislocated his left elbow. Now they’ll need to turn back to veteran signal-caller Marcus Mariota to lead their depleted offense at home this weekend against a Lions team that will be looking for blood. I’m not sure why I’m surprised that Dan Campbell was outcoached by Kevin O’Connell in a home game that he had an extra week to prepare for, but somehow, I really felt like the Lions were building momentum towards a big postseason run this year. Campbell is a great motivator, and he will always get his team ready to play hard, but in crucial game situations, he tends to take chances to win the game rather than playing it safe. Well, this past weekend he got a taste of his own medicine as it was O’Connell who made the gutsy call on a crucial 3rd down late in the game and allowed the Vikings to run out the clock for the victory. The Lions are going to come into this game hot and should be able to have their way with this Washington defense that was just torn apart by Sam Darnold. Jared Goff isn’t usually great in outdoor games, but he won’t need to be for Detroit to win this game handily.
Lions 31 – Commanders 17
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
The 49ers managed the upset on a Thursday night game when these two teams met earlier this year, behind a big game from Mac Jones. This game is a key matchup that will go a long way in deciding who may get homefield advantage come playoff time in the NFC West division. I have a hard time seeing the 49ers sweeping the season series against the Rams, despite having home-field advantage in this game. The 49ers handled the Giants last week by reverting back to their tried-and-true formula of riding Christian McCaffrey like he’s a rented mule that needs to be returned in the morning. It’s going to eventually blow up on them since the last time I checked, he’s human and he’s now over 30 years old. They will likely try and run the offense through him again in this game, but Stafford and the Rams should take care of business in Frisco. Typically, I would hesitate to back a road team laying points, and the “hook” on top of the field goal definitely makes me nervous here, but Matthew Stafford has just been too good lately, leading the Rams to 3 straight wins following that week 5 loss to San Francisco, to drop this game here.
Rams 31 – 49ers 26
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
The Steelers still sit atop the AFC North thanks to an upset victory over the Colts last weekend. The Pittsburgh defense was reminiscent of the Blitsburgh unit of yesteryear, piling up 6 turnovers on the day. They were able to do this without really blitzing much at all, which is going to be a key for them going forward since their secondary has been downright shaky thus far this year. This week they take on Justin Herbert and the Chargers who managed to outlast the Titans in Tennessee last week. The Chargers made it interesting by spotting the Titans a couple of early defensive/special teams scores but were able to take control in the second half and win 27-20. The Chargers need this win as they still trail the Broncos by one game in the AFC West while sitting a game ahead of the Chiefs. The Steelers aren’t going to win the turnover battle 6-1 every week and they are going to need Aaron Rodgers and D.K. Metcalf to do more than they did last week if they are going to be competitive in this game. I don’t think they have enough ammo to keep up with Herbert and the Bolts offense, so I’m more than comfortable laying the 3 plus that annoying hook.
Chargers 30 – Steelers 17
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Green Bay suffered a big loss last week, and I’m not talking about the 16-13 defeat they suffered at home against the Panthers. In that game, the Packers also lost their big tight end, Tucker Kraft who has been their passing game’s best red zone weapon thus far this season. With Kraft out for the season, they will need the other pass catchers to step up, including former starter Luke Musgrave. The Eagles had the week off and hopefully they spent it in therapy fixing their relationship with A.J. Brown who they are going to need if they have aspirations of repeating last season’s championship run. Saquon Barkley also had the week off to rest a sore groin that forced him from their week 8 game in New York. The books see this game as being evenly matched with the Packers laying the obligatory 2.5 home-field advantage. Philly has addressed their defense with a series of trade deadline deals that netted them safety Michael Carter, corner Jaire Alexander and pass rusher Jaelin Phillips. It remains to be seen if the trio make an immediate impact, but the front office has made it clear that they expect this team to make a deep postseason run and anything less than a Super Bowl repeat is going to be considered a failure. I expect a close game and, in the end, it’s going to come down to which team makes fewer mistakes. I’m going to lean towards the Eagles coming off the bye and take the points on the road.
Eagles 28 – Packers 27
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