Week 5 was a wild one across the NFL. Picking games from week to week has become a bit of a guessing game when we realize just how many bad teams there are in the league right now. The winless Titans limped into Arizona, looking hopeless, and managed to pull out their first win thanks to…..well, everything possible going wrong for the Cardinals in the second half. The Giants managed to gift the Saints their first win, leaving the Jets as the league’s lone winless team after they were rolled by the Cowboys at home. The playoff race may be tight, but the battle for the top pick in next year’s draft may be even tighter, as a total of 8 teams currently sit with 1 or fewer victories for the season after 5 weeks. The league is literally littered with bad teams right now. Obviously, it’s early and there is plenty of time for a team like the Ravens (1-4) to get healthy and win some games, but can we say the same for teams like the Titans, Giants, Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, or Browns? Even teams with 2 wins, like the Panthers, Bengals, and Cardinals, have looked miserable and seem destined for a high draft pick. They can’t all have top 5 picks, so some of them are going to have to win some games somewhere. Let’s take a look at the week 6 slate and see if we can make heads or tails out of the upcoming matchups for this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants +6.5
The Eagles dropped their first game of the season last week at home against the Broncos and will look to get back on track this Thursday night. The Giants will try and regroup at home on a short week after falling apart in New Orleans on Sunday. The G-men managed to give the ball away on every possession in the second half, totaling 5 turnovers for the game. The rookie duo of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo managed back-to-back fumbles as New York blew an early 14-3 lead. In Philly, the Eagles continued to scuffle on offense as they blew a second-half two-score lead of their own to Denver. It feels like this is a get-right week for the Eagles, and they may just take out all of their recent frustrations on their NFC East rivals. Expect a healthy dose of Saquon Barkley, running up and down the field at Met Life Stadium, reminding Giants Fans of days gone by.
Eagles 34 – Giants 16
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (London) +7.5
The NFL double-dips on the Big Apple for the first two “stand-alone” games of week 6. They might have thought week 6 was early enough in the season for the New York fan base to still have hope for their respective teams, but sadly, that might have been a bit too optimistic. The Jets stand alone as the sole winless team in the league, and that doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon. For this team to win, they will need to follow a very specific game script, and that will rely heavily on getting an early lead. The style of offense they run needs a shutdown defense, and that’s what fans were expecting when the team hired defensive-minded Aaron Glenn to lead the charge for this season. What they’ve gotten is a team that’s ranked in the bottom ten of the league in yards allowed and 2nd only to the injury-riddled Ravens for the bottom spot in total points allowed. The combination of a porous defense and a methodical yet inefficient offense has led to exactly what one would expect: lots of losses. That trend should continue this week in London against a Broncos team that’s flying high after last week’s upset victory in Philly. The Jets may actually keep this close, since most of the London games tend to be a bit boring and low scoring, but in the end, I don’t expect them to nab win #1 this week.
Broncos 24 – Jets 20
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
This is a classic AFC North showdown between two stout defenses, or at least it’s supposed to be. Both of these teams field talented defenses led by their respective all-pro game wreckers, Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, but the results thus far have been mixed on both sides. The Browns sit second in the league in yards allowed, but are in the bottom half of the league (22nd) in total points against. The Steelers have been bending all year, ranking 5th from the bottom of the league in yards allowed, but a more respectable 9th overall in points against. Neither offense is lighting up the scoreboard, but in this matchup, we have to give the edge to the home team, led by the veteran QB. I expect this to be a lower-scoring, field position battle, featuring a lot of field goals. So, of course, that means it will be a shoot-out with the last team possessing the ball claiming the victory. Either way, that team should be Pittsburgh. The Steelers haven’t lost coming off a bye week since 2016, and they are 11-4 overall in those games under Mike Tomlin.
Steelers 19 – Browns 13
Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins +3.5
The Chargers were flying high through 3 weeks of this season, with many talking about their playoff future as well as a possible MVP award for their QB, Justin Herbert. Fast forward 2 weeks, and now the Bolts are scrambling after two straight losses and, more importantly, two major losses on offense. Weeks 4 and 5 saw L.A. lose both their right tackle turned left tackle, Joe Alt, as well as rookie sensation, running back Omarian Hampton. Now, at 3-2, they limp into Miami to take on a squad that is all too familiar with impactful injuries. The Dolphins didn’t fare so well last week in their first game of the “post Tyreek era”. Their offense seemed stuck in second gear against a usually forgiving Carolina defense, and the Miami defense was simply embarrassed by Rico Dowdle and the Panthers’ run game. It feels like Vegas didn’t know what to do with this game, so they slapped the “default 1-2 points to the home team” spread on it to open, and the early money has pushed it as high as 4.5 in some spots. The masses are picking the Chargers here, but it feels like a trap. Miami can still rush the passer, and Tua is capable of some decent games from time to time. Darren Waller has given Tua a decent second target to help fill the void left by Tyreek Hill. If he can stay healthy and De’Vonne Achane can get things going, the Dolphins may have enough to win this one at home.
Dolphins 26 – Chargers 24
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints +3.5
Both teams are coming off impressive victories in week 5. All things are relative in the NFL, and this is a great example. The Patriots impressive victory actually came against a team we will be seeing in the postseason, while the Saints win will probably end up being a loss come draft season as they edged the hapless Giants for their first win of the season. The bottom line here, these two teams are heading in different directions. If Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels can finally figure out how to get Treyveon Henderson involved with the New England offense, they may finally start clicking on all cylinders. They may be forced to now after losing Antoni Gibson for the season and with Rhomondre Stephenson suffering from a bad case of fumble-itis. The Saints look like they are working Kendre Miller into their backfield more alongside Alvin Kamara in what could either be a sign of the young player’s emergence or of plans to trade the veteran this season. Either way, the Patriots and Drake Maye should have little problem outpacing Spencer Rattler and the Saints.
Patriots 27 – Saints 20
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens +7.5
The Ravens will now host the Rams after being embarrassed at home by the Texans 44-10. The Rams will look to get right after dropping a tough one last Thursday at home against a banged-up, Mac Jones-led 49ers team. The “mini bye” should help almost as much as facing the Ravens and their bottom-ranked defense. Look for Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams to all eat and for the Rams defense to be more than Cooper Rush can handle. The west coast to east coast travel is normally something we like to pick on, especially with the half point hook on top of the touchdown spread, but this game really shouldn’t be close.
Rams 34 – Ravens 16
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts -6.5
The Cardinals actually broke new ground last week and will forever be remembered in the annals of the “how to blow a victory” Hall of Fame. They will now have to pick themselves up and travel to Indy to take on the stampeding Colts, who will be anxiously waiting to keep the party going after a 40-6 drubbing of the Raiders last week. Daniel Jones will look to pick on a Cardinals defense that has been near the bottom of the league against the pass. The Cardinals will look to regroup, and it will have to start with Kyler Murray, who is nursing an ankle injury from last week. Jonathan Gannon was noncommittal when asked about his QB’s status for this week, so keep an eye on the injury reports. With Murray in the fold, the Cardinals have a chance to keep it close; without him, it’s going to be a tall order. As of now, we are figuring on Arizona having their #1 signal caller under center. Since the NFL loves to mix it up from week to week, it won’t be a shock if the Colts actually lose this game as nearly a touchdown favorite. We’re leaning towards a close game with the Colts pulling it out in the end.
Colts 23 – Cardinals 19
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5
The Jaguars will be home for the 4th time in their first 6 games as Seattle makes the long trip across three time zones for this weekend’s matchup. The Jags sit at a perfect 3-0 in Jacksonville after their exciting Monday Night victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Seahawks sit at 3-2 after losing a heartbreaker to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs on a last-second field goal that followed a Sam Darnold interception with a minute left in the game. The Jag defense has been flying all over the field, leading the league in takeaways this season, and they should present a tough task for Darnold and the Seattle offense. Look for the Seahawks to drop their first road decision of the season as Trevor Lawrence and friends do just enough to outpace the Seattle squad and Sam Darnold.
Jaguars 27 – Seahawks 24
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers +3.5
This matchup features two teams with 2 wins on the young season, which may surprise many of us who’ve watched them play. The Cowboys most impressive game was most likely their tie against the Packers, when you consider that their two wins have come against the Giants and Jets. The Panthers are coming off of a home win over the drowning Dolphins at home, improving their record to 2-0 at Bank of American Stadium. Luckily for Carolina, that’s exactly where this game will be played this weekend, and we are liking the home dogs in this matchup. The Cowboys just aren’t very good and have no right being a road favorite. It worked out last week at Met Life Stadium against the Jets, but an encore seems like too much to ask for. Bryce Young has sneaky fantasy appeal as he takes on a Cowboys defense that ranks at the very bottom of the league in passing yards allowed per game. This game will be closer than the book has it, so we’ll take the home team for the upset.
Panthers 26 – Cowboys 24
Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders -4.5
Here we have another “Clash of the Titans” of sorts. It’s actually nothing of the sort, aside from the fact that one of these teams is actually named the Titans. The Raiders and Titans come into this matchup with 1 win apiece and will lock horns in a battle that should have more impact on the spring draft than it will on the playoff chase. The Raiders have yet to win at home this season, dropping decisions to the Chargers and Bears in Vegas, while the Titans are coming off their lone win on the road in Arizona. This game is nearly impossible to break down, as we just don’t know who is going to be showing up. How long with an aging Pete Carroll stick with the miserable QB play of Geno Smith? When will Cam Ward start playing like we were expecting from the top overall pick in the draft? Will the Raiders offensive line be able to pull together and make some room for Ashton Jeanty after losing top blocker Kolton Miller in week 4? There are far more questions than answers, and in the end, we main question we have to ask is: “who do we consider game changers?’. The Raiders have Maxx Crosby and Ashton Jeanty, and those two alone might be enough to pull this game out at home. I’m holding my nose and taking Vegas.
Raiders 23 – Titans 19
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
The Bucs are coming off a heroic victory of sorts as they managed a 3-point win in Seattle, as they played without stars Bucky Irving and Mike Evans. Meanwhile, the 49ers could only wish they were “only” missing 2 offensive starters as they managed their own road win over the Rams without the services of Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, AND Brock Purdy. On top of that, they may be without Mac Jones as he was nursing an injured knee after last week’s game. In what should be a battle of attrition, we’re going to favor the home team in this one. More than just the home field advantage, the Bucs will also have Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka, which should just be enough to outperform Christian McCaffrey and whatever San Fran is able to roll out there this Sunday.
Bucs 26 – 49ers 21
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers -14.5
You read that correctly; the Packers are over a two-touchdown favorite at home against the team formerly known as “the playoff hopeful” Bengals. Jake Browning has been utterly abysmal in relief of Joe Burrow for Cincy. While he was able to somewhat get going last week, throwing 3 touchdowns and allowing JaMarr Chase’s fantasy owners to climb down from ledges across the Country, he still threw 3 picks. The Bengal defense, for their part, is still a complete mess, and we expect the Packers to run wild coming off their bye week. Josh Jacobs should find the end zone at least once, and the Packer defense will be able to get home often against Browning. Expect another long day for Cincy fans.
Packers 38 – Bengals 17
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The Sunday night Prime Time game gives us a good one this week as the Lions travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in what very well could be a Super Bowl preview. The Chiefs dropped to 2-3 on Monday night after losing to Jacksonville, and they return home, where they currently have a 1-2 record on the season. The Chiefs usually stand on business at Arrowhead, so it’s hard to believe they’ll drop to 1-3 in front of the home faithful. The Lions have been laying waste to opponents since dropping the opening game of the season to the Packers, averaging over 42 points per game since week 2. Vegas still believes in the Chiefs as they set the opening line as 3-point home favorites, but early money seems to like Detroit as that number has shrunk slightly. On paper, the Lions look too strong for K.C., and if they can avoid early mistakes, they should be able to stay ahead of the Chiefs for the whole game. Patrick Mahomes has a way of keeping things close, and if the Chiefs were getting points here, I’d be interested. Look for the Lions to pull out a close one that should feature a lot of scoring.
Lions 38 – Chiefs 37
Check out our NFL Power Rankings: NFL Power Rankings In Week 6
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Atlanta returns from their bye week, more than a field goal underdog, as they host the Buffalo Bills in the first of two Monday Night matchups. That makes a total of 7 home dogs out of the 15 games scheduled for this weekend. Of those 7, you can rest assured that some of them will step up and defend home turf with an upset victory. Unfortunately for the Falcons, the Bills had their hiccup last Sunday against Drake Maye and the Patriots. While the Falcons should be healthy across the board, this is just too big a step up in weight class for them. Expect Josh Allen to do his thing, keeping the sticks moving with his arm and his legs, and look for James Cook to get back on track after a down performance in week 5. Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and co. will do their best to keep Atlanta in the game, but in the end, it likely won’t be quite enough.
Bills 30 – Falcons 27
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders -4.5
The Commanders got Jayden Daniels back after a two-week absence due to a knee injury, and it definitely helped as they came from behind to take down the Chargers 27-10. The Bears come to town fresh off their bye, and it will be interesting to see how the team responds to whatever adjustments new head coach Ben Johnson may have implemented during their week off. This is a contest of two very evenly matched teams, and it will be up to Daniels and breakout star Jacory Croskey “Bill” Merritt to keep the Washington offense ahead of the sticks against a Bears defense that ranks second to last in the league against the run. Caleb Williams should keep the Chicago offense going in what should be a competitive, back-and-forth affair. In a close game, it will come down to who can make fewer mistakes, and my money is on Jayden Daniels and the home team.
Commanders 26 – Bears 24