Well, I didn’t see that coming. And who did? When the Duke Blue Devils, who have looked like one of the best college basketball teams of the last decade, were up 6 with under a minute to go, I was prepping to write this article about Florida and Duke playing each other. But an improbable, unlikely, insane rally from Houston allowed them to overcome the deficit and defeat Duke to get to this position. And now, we’ve got a massive contrast of styles between these two teams, both of whom are on long win streaks and beat elite competition to get here. It is my belief that Florida is a better basketball team than Houston, but that didn’t seem to prevent the Cougars from beating Duke, did it? Here are four bold predictions that could happen in the national championship game, and I will lay out the case as to how they can happen
1. The game total goes under 135
Most sportsbooks have the game total in the window of 140 – 145, but I think this game goes well under. We were so close to both games in the Final Four going under their totals, but that was undone by Houston’s final two free throws against Duke. We already know that teams tend to struggle shooting in domes and that tournament games feature a different level of pressure down the stretch, but I also think that Houston’s game plan will be to slow this game down to a snail’s pace. Houston already ranks 360th in the nation in tempo rating, while Florida is 59th. But Auburn’s game plan was clear – to limit Florida’s transition points and force them to execute in the half-court, as well as to run a patient offense and generate quality shots. If Auburn’s game plan was this, I would expect Houston to be similar because they already play even slower than that.
2. J’Wan Roberts finishes with 20+ points and 10+ rebounds
I know what you’re probably thinking – if Johni Broome ended with 15 and 7 against Florida, why would we expect J’Wan Roberts to do better than that? Well, simply because I think that Houston’s offensive strategy and Florida’s defensive strategy will be to force the action through Roberts. Houston loves to operate inside-out and generate offense from a J’Wan Roberts post-up. Florida was content to guard Johni Broome one-on-one in post-up situations, and I think they will do the same with Roberts. I like his chances of scoring against Alex Condon.
3. Walter Clayton Jr. earns Final Four Most Outstanding Player Honors
This may not be the boldest take on my list, but I am calling my shot that Clayton Jr is the shining star in San Antonio on Monday night. The Gators’ point guard is coming off of back-to-back games of 30+ points, and I see no signs of stopping. Yes, Houston is the nation’s best defensive team and ranks 1st in defensive efficiency. But since when has tough defense ever stopped Walter Clayton? He thrives under pressure and has made numerous tough, contested jump shots in this NCAA Tournament.
4. Thomas Haugh is the X-Factor
After Clayton, I think Florida’s most important player is going to be 6th Man Thomas Haugh. The sophomore power forward played a huge role in Florida’s victory over Auburn, thanks to his ability to space the floor offensively and versatile defensive abilities. He very much can do the same for Florida on Monday night, as his ability to shoot the 3 can draw Roberts and Tugler out of the paint defensively. And on the other side, he may just be the toughest matchup that Roberts can face because of his all-around athleticism. I just see him being the perfect guy for what Florida needs in order to beat Houston’s schemes on both sides of the ball.