The NFL Playoffs begin this weekend! There are 3 games in each conference, 6 games in total, and we have a preview and breakdown for each one:
Chargers at Texans:
The fifth-seed Chargers head to Houston to take on the 4th seeded Texans. The Texans limped into the playoffs and are lucky they play in such a weak division, while the Chargers finished strong. Their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh was a big success, and they will look to parlay it into playoff success, too.
When the Chargers have the ball:
Justin Herbert has thrived in Greg Roman’s offense. He’s shown more mobility this year than in seasons past, which has given his game another dimension. The Texans have been very strong against opposing running backs, so Herbert might have about 30 to 40 rushing yards in this game.
Running Attack:
JK Dobbins surprised people with his ability to stay healthy for most of the season. He’s given the Chargers a lift with his explosive running as well as his pass-catching ability. The Texans defense has been solid against the run, so look for Dobbins to have 15 to 18 touches, but don’t expect a huge game from him.
Elite Rookie:
It is without question that Ladd McConkey has been a top-three rookie wide receiver in the league this year. He is Justin Herbert’s go-to guy in critical situations and runs exceptional routes. He should be able to dominate the Texans defense, which struggles against slot receivers. Quentin Johnston is very inconsistent: In some games, he makes amazing plays, and sometimes, he has some bad drops. He’s going to need to hold on to the ball if the Chargers want to win.
When the Texans have the ball:
After having a phenomenal rookie season, second-year quarterback CJ Stroud has regressed slightly. It’s probably not as much Stroud’s fault as it’s been the fact that his receivers have been injured. The Chargers play a very difficult zone concept scheme, and they have an excellent pass rush with Joey Bosa on the outside. Stroud is going to need to be at his best if the Texans want any chance to win.
Mixon Needs To Carry The Load:
When the Texans were playing well in the beginning of the season Joe Mixon was running for well over 100 yards per game and had multiple touchdowns. Teams got wise to what the Texans wanted to do and started putting more men in the box to stop him. It is likely the Chargers will probably do the same and force Stroud to beat them with his arm.
Other Texans Playmakers:
Nico Collins is one of the top five receivers in the NFL and can dominate against any type of defensive coverage. The Texans brought in Diontae Johnson recently after Tank Dell was ruled out for the year. Johnson has all the ability in the world, but he’s not yet In sync with Stroud and doesn’t know the offense entirely. They’re going to need him to step up and play like the receiver he can be if they want any chance to win.
Prediction:
The Chargers just have too much on both sides of the football and should be able to beat the Texans.
Steelers at Ravens:
These two division rivals will meet for the third time this season. The Steelers won the first matchup earlier in the season when they were playing well, and the Ravens defense was struggling. The Ravens dominated the second matchup between the two teams and are playing excellent football right now, while the Steelers are playing their worst football of the year.
When the Steelers have the ball:
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin shocked fans and experts alike earlier in the season when he decided to bench Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. It paid off, as Wilson’s all-around game helped the Steelers flourish. Wilson has the arm to challenge Baltimore’s secondary, which has been its Achilles heel.
Two-Headed Monster
The Steelers have a two-headed rushing attack with Najee Harris as the primary ball carrier and Jaylen Warren as the pass-catching back. With the Steelers likely to be down in this game, they’re going to need to rely on Warren as much as possible to make big plays on 3rd and short.
Wilson to Pickens:
The key to the Steelers winning this game will be George Pickens stepping up and being the WR1 that he thinks he is. Baltimore is one of the worst teams against opposing top receivers, but Pickens tends to drop the ball in big situations. He’s got to come up big if the Steelers want to win. TE Pat Freiermuth will need to be heavily involved as well to take some pressure off Pickens.
When the Ravens have the ball:
The Ravens were built for this time of year. Lamar Jackson tends to overthrow some passes, but he can always be counted on to run and make plays with his legs. He knows the Steelers well and won’t be surprised with anything that he hasn’t seen before.
King Henry:
The Ravens added Derrick Henry specifically for the playoffs. Henry has never won a Super Bowl, and he really wants one prior to his retirement. He should be able to get about 25 to 30 carries in this game and is always a threat to break off a big play.
Pass Catchers:
The big question for the Ravens is the health of Zay Flowers. Flowers injured his knee in Week 18 and is very questionable and a game time decision. If Flowers is unable to play Rashod Bateman becomes the number one receiver. While Bateman is a solid player, he’s nothing like Flowers. If Flowers is out, what the Ravens will likely do is use their two tight ends extensively. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are both pass-catching weapons and should be able to find open space in the Steelers secondary.
Prediction:
The Steelers don’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Baltimore, whose running attack and Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability should lead them to victory.
Broncos at Bills:
The Broncos are back in the playoffs for the first time since Peyton Manning retired. They had a solid season, but this matchup might be too difficult of a task for them. They have to go into Buffalo and take on one of the best teams in the league, the possible NFL MVP in Josh Allen, and do it in one of the toughest environments to win in the league.
When the Broncos have the ball:
Many people were shocked that the Broncos decided to start Bo Nix as a rookie. However, Sean Payton saw something in Nix that made him believe that he could handle the responsibilities of the position. Payton was certainly right, and Nix has been tremendous. He’s shown excellent mobility and decision-making throughout the season. This is going to be the toughest test of his young career playing in frigid Buffalo.
Running Back By Committee:
Buffalo’s biggest weakness is that they are bad against tough running backs. What the Broncos like to do is rotate their backs, as they have three very good ones, and they will probably lean on them and run about 60% of the time. The bad news for Buffalo is that their top tackler, Terrell Bernard, may miss the game. If he does, this could mean real trouble for the Bills.
Courtland Sutton Is Key:
The Bills don’t normally get beat deep by opposing receivers, so Nix is going to have to take what the Bills secondary gives him. Courtland Sutton is very difficult to handle in the red zone as he is a big, bodied receiver who wins a lot of 50/50 balls. Marvin Mims is also emerging as the big play threat that the Broncos were seeking when they drafted him.
When the Bills have the ball:
In previous seasons, Buffalo has been more of a pass-first offense, but under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, they have become more of a run-first team. The beauty of Josh Allen is that he has exceptional mobility and is used as a running back in the red zone. It would not be surprising to see him run for at least one touchdown against Denver and perhaps more.
James Is Cooking:
James Cook has become one of the top rushers in all the NFL. Cook can take any carry to the house but is also a solid enough receiver out of the backfield to keep defenses honest. The Bills are very deep at running back and use Ty Johnson and Ray Davis as change-of-pace backups.
Pass Catching Weapons:
Khalil Shakir is the Bills best receiver against zone coverage and Amari Cooper is their top receiver against man coverage. Cooper is not 100% healthy but he’s expected to play. Rookie Keon Coleman is a big red zone target due to his size, and Dalton Kincaid is reliable over the middle and could have an impact in this game as Denver is susceptible to good tight ends.
Prediction:
Sean Payton has brought the Broncos back from the depths of oblivion, but it might be asking too much to win in frigid Buffalo against Josh Allen and company.
Packers at Eagles:
The 7th-seed Green Bay Packers head to Philadelphia to take on the the 2nd seed Eagles. The two teams played all the way back in week one, in Brazil, and the Eagles came away with the win. A lot has changed since then, the Packers limped into the playoffs while the Eagles cruised to the finish line. They are the clear favorites here, but in the playoffs, anything can happen. Here’s a look at how this game should play out:
When Green Bay has the ball:
Green Bay has become a running team over the last part of the season as their pass rate over expectation is the lowest in the league, and they play at a snail’s pace. With Christian Watson out with a torn ACL look for Green Bay to continue to milk the clock with Josh Jacobs and keep the time of possession in their favor.
Love Nursing Injury:
Jordan Love has a hand injury, but it would be shocking to see him miss this playoff game. He will spend a lot of the time handing the ball off to Josh Jacobs and the other RBs, but the Eagles have been the toughest team to run on in the league, which could force him to pass more than the team would like.
Beat Up Receivers:
Not only is Christian Watson out, but Romeo Doubs is not playing at full strength, either. Jayden Reed struggles against man coverage, and Bo Melton is the new WR3 with Watson out. The Packers might choose to employ a two tight end offense with Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave to change things up, but either way, this is a rough matchup for Green Bay.
When Philadelphia has the ball:
QB Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol. Hopefully, he gets to practice by the end of the week. If Hurts can’t go, backup Kenny Pickett will get the start. Pickett has been underwhelming thus far when he’s played, but he can do just enough to keep drives alive.
Saquon’s Show:
Saquon Barkley missed his chance to set the NFL rushing record by sitting out Week 18 to be fully healthy for the playoff run. It would not be surprising to see Barkley get around 30 rushes, as the Eagles OL has a definite physical advantage over the Packers DL.
Eagles WR Advantage:
Green Bay’s best CB, Jaire Alexander, is on the IR, which should play to the advantage of Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Both Eagles receivers have mismatches on the outside as the Packers secondary is on the slower side, and Brown especially should take advantage. Dallas Goedert returned from the IR in Week 18 and adds another wrinkle to Philadelphia’s offense and will force the Packers LB to watch him over the middle of the field.
Conclusion
If Jalen Hurts returns, the Eagles should have no problem winning this game. Losing the speed of Watson means the Packers will rely even more on their running attack, which will be an uphill battle against the Eagles tough run defense. Jordan Love will have to be next to perfect for the Packers to have any chance.
Commanders at Bucs:
The 6th-seed Commanders head to Tampa to take on the 3rd-seeded Buccaneers this weekend. Both teams have high-powered offenses that should put up plenty of points. The Bucs won in week 18 just to be here, and they have the experience, but Jayden Daniels is as special as they get. Here’s a look at how this game should play out:
When Washington has the ball:
Tampa’s run defense has been very tough all season long, especially with Vita Vea manning the interior line. It’s hard to imagine Brian Robinson Jr. having a lot of room to run, so it would not be shocking to see Jayden Daniels lead the team in rushing yards.
Commanders Key Pass Catchers:
Tampa has been one of the worst teams in pass defense all season, as they are terrible against WR1, tight ends, and slot receivers. The Commanders have a terrific WR1 in Terry McLaurin and a very solid tight end in Zach Ertz. If Daniels can elude the pass rush, he should be able to take a few big shots downfield to McLaurin.
Jayden Needs To Stay Composed:
This is a game that the Commanders can win if Daniels can keep his composure and complete critical third-down opportunities when they arise.
When Tampa has the ball:
Baker Mayfield has been one of the top quarterbacks this season and has full command of this offense. He has just enough mobility and athleticism to elude the Commanders tough pass rush and make some big downfield plays.
Bucky Leads The Charge:
Tampa Bay has two excellent young running backs in Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. Irving has taken the mantle as RB1 and is very fluid out of the backfield catching the football as well as finding the zone gaps to run. White is the Bucs preference in goal-line situations but he has seen fewer carries in the past few weeks due to a fumbling issue.
Bucs Pass Catchers:
Mike Evans eclipsed 1000 yards once again this season and is the Bucs go-to receiver, but the Commanders added his old nemesis Marshon Lattimore before the trade deadline from the Saints, which might be the difference in this game. Rookie Jalen McMillan has really stepped up recently and will be needed with Evans being contained, but the key may be the return of tight end Cade Otton, who has missed the last few weeks with an injury. He is a very big presence in the red zone and a reliable target for Mayfield.
Conclusion:
Tampa is a 3-point favorite at home, but it feels like this game will come down to whether Jayden Daniels can make the necessary plays against a Tampa defense that has really struggled against top quarterbacks. Baker is going to have to match Daniels point for point if Tampa wants to win.
Vikings at Rams:
This game is a matchup of two head coaches who used to work together in Los Angeles (O’Connell was the OC for McVay). These two teams run very similar offenses, and they should have an excellent idea of what each other wants to do. Here is how this game should play out:
When Minnesota has the ball:
The key for the Vikings is for Sam Darnold to make good decisions when facing the Rams defensive pressure. The Rams have a terrific pass rush and can force a lot of bad throws from Darnold if they can get him to be a little skittish in the pocket.
Jones or Akers? Or both?
Aaron Jones has run well, but as of late, it seems like the Vikings are leaning on Cam Akers especially in and around the goal line. Akers is very familiar with the Rams, as he used to play there. Both running backs will be used interchangeably.
Vikings Best Matchup:
The Rams are the best team against slot receivers in the NFL, so the Vikings may lean more toward using Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson than Justin Jefferson. Against the Lions, Sam Darnold was not able to find Jordan Addison (only one catch). This cannot happen as the Rams really struggle against the deep pass where Addison should shine.
When Los Angeles has the ball:
If there is anyone who can withstand the Vikings pass rush, it’s Matthew Stafford. He’s not afraid to take a hit, and he’s at his best when teams pressure him.
Kyren Is Key:
The Rams want to establish the run with Kyren Williams, but Minnesota has one of the toughest run defenses in the league. They sometimes suffer against explosive running backs such as Jahmyr Gibbs, but Williams runs inside the tackles and not outside like Gibbs does. Look for McVay to give Williams about 18 to 22 touches, mainly to keep the Vikings defense honest.
Can Kupp Be Impactful?
The Vikings struggle against slot receivers so this could be one of those games where Cooper Kupp goes off. He’s been pretty non-existent over the past few games but this should be a game where they rely on him more than usual. Tight End Tyler Higbee is back and healthy again and could be a good target in the red zone. Puka Nacua is the engine to the Rams’ offense and they will move him around to make sure that the Vikings don’t shadow him with Stephon Gilmore.
Conclusion:
Even though the Rams are the higher seed, the Vikings are a 2.5-point favorite. This game is completely about Sam Darnold. If he plays well, Minnesota should win; if he plays like he did against Detroit, they will likely lose. For the Rams, Stafford just needs to be Stafford. He is great in big moments.
