When looking at early fantasy football draft boards, it is important to not alwats draft a player based on them being a name-brand guy. Let’s take a look at ESPN’s early ADP for PPR formats and see the players that are being taken rounds before they should be.
Rounds 1-3
Isaiah Pacheco: ADP 15
Pacheco had a great overall year as the lead back in Kansas City in 2023 as he finished with 935 yards on the ground and 244 through the air. While he was productive in real life, fantasy-wise he was an RB2. He finished as the RB15 through the entire year and RB14 in PPG. With an ADP of 15 Pacheco is being treated as an RB1, while Pacheco could evolve more into a pass-catching RB this year it is unlikely when the Chiefs still have Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the roster.
Patrick Mahomes: ADP 16
Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and it is not a question, but the ADP price tag is way too high. Mahomes is coming off a year of being QB8 which is behind guys like Jared Goff and Brock Purdy. While Mahomes did finish as QB1 in 2022 that was with a prime Travis Kelce. Not only is Mahomes price tag too high he is also going before guys like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson who just won the MVP. It is obvious Mahomes is great but taking him in the second round is setting a fantasy team up for failure.
Stefon Diggs: ADP 21
With the recent trade that occurred that sent Diggs to the Houston Texans, he joins a stacked receiver room that includes Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Shultz. Although Diggs goes to a better offense, it really could really tank his fantasy production. With Collins averaging 7.3 TPG, Dell at 6.8, and Shultz at 5.9, it makes people wonder if Diggs can still keep his average at 9.4 TPG. Although Diggs might be very productive in Houston it is important to note that Diggs is going ahead of guys like Michael Pittman Jr. who are clear WR1 in their offense.
Rounds 4+
DK Metcalf: ADP 35
Metcalf is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the NFL but does not warrant a late-round three selection this year. DK finished as WR21 Last year and WR23 in PPG with 14.1. With these numbers, he’s comparable to Jakobi Meyers, Cooper Kupp, and Adam Thielen who are going twenty picks later than him. Metcalf also has to deal with a lot of target competition, with Tyler Lockett still around and rising star Jaxon Smith-Njigba taking targets away from DK.
Drake London ADP: 45
London has gotten off to a low start in his two years in the NFL, especially in fantasy as he has finished as WR31 and WR37 the past two years. The hype around him this year though is because of his upgrade at QB with Kirk Cousins coming to Atlanta. While London may see an improvement in his fantasy output, it is ridiculous for him to be drafted around guys like D.J. Moore and DeVonta Smith. London does average 6.9 TPG which allows him to have some upside but for this price tag, he is not worth the pick.
DeAndre Hopkins ADP: 61
Hopkins is well past his prime and having Will Levis as his QB does not help. While the connection between Levis and Hopkins had a few bright spots last year, the addition of Calvin Ridley will take targets away from Hopkins. Ridley is a target hog as he averaged 8 TPG last year and is in the prime of his career. In the past 4 years, Hopkins has not cracked the top 20 in fantasy production and was WR47 and WR46 in 2021 and 2022 as he could not stay on the field. With all of this in mind, Hopkins is not worth this ADP value and should be around pick 80-90.
