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Danger’s Chalk Report: Two-Game Week 14 Monday Night Football Slate DFS Breakdown

Danger gives a quick breakdown of how he’s approaching tonight’s two-game Monday Night Football DFS slate.

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 11: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates a touchdown in the third quarter during a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on December 11, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

We are going a different route with this one. Let’s examine a unique two-game slate through the lens of not only ownership levels and pivots but by looking at contest simulations to see who is overvalued and undervalued based on how often they appear in optimal lineups vs their projected ownerships. When I talk about optimal lineups, I mean the percentage that player appears in the winning lineup when running contest sims.

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Monday Night Football DFS Chalk Report

Clearly, the Dolphins and Packers (favored by 13 and 5.5 respectively) will be insanely popular, so we have to find ways to know what chalk to double down on and what to fade. Let’s get one thing out of the way first though. You play Tyreek Hill. Period. No getting cute, no thinking you are smarter than the room, just lock him in. He is showing up in 96% of optimal lineups, but in the larger GPPs he is projected to be around 62% owned. That is a whole lot of people missing out, and I will not be one of them.

Monday Night Football Quarterback DFS Breakdown

The second thing I will do is look at my QB. It’s going to get hard to pay up but the only QB with positive exposure vs ownership is Tua Tagovailoa. Jordan Love comes in as basically exactly worth his price and ownership and there is HUGE negative equity in both Will Levis and Tommy DeVito.

  • Tua — 47% owned, 50% optimal exposure
  • Love — 44% owned, 40% optimal exposure
  • DeVito — 37% owned, 8% optimal exposure
  • Levis — 31% owned, 2% optimal exposure

What this says to me is you play Tua if you can and settle for Love if you can’t. If I am not playing more than five lineups, I am not playing either DeVito or Levis.

Monday Night Football Running Back DFS Breakdown

Running back gets tough as the obvious choices again stand out as De’Von Achane and Saquon Barkley. Tennessee’s run defense should hamper Mostert more than Achane; it is tough, but not impossible, to line up Tua/Hill/Achane.

The latest news has Aaron Jones missing another game, so shares of A.J. Dillon will be on the rise, but he again will be very popular. It’s hard to stay in positive exposure vs. ownership, and you have to take a stand somewhere. I want one of Barkley or Achane and think I will ignore Mostert and Derrick Henry and get cheap with Dillon or Tyjae Spears. Probably chalky, but I am playing high floor with my studs.

Monday Night Football Wide Receiver & Tight End DFS Breakdown

Wide receivers outside of Hill are pretty straightforward. Only MIA and GB guys have positive leverage. I prefer Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks over Romeo Doubs. Tight end is a complete punt. None of these guys gives any real leverage so I will almost completely punt to New York’s Lawrence Cager.

Monday Night Football Defense DFS Breakdown

Defense comes down to what you can fit. I most often find I can really only afford NYG and TEN, so I will go with the Giants more often than not.

Bottom Line

If you aren’t building multiple lineups you shouldn’t have to get overly cute. Save money with Cager, Wicks, Spears, and Dillon and shove what you can in everywhere else.

I want 66% Tua and 33% Love. I want Achane or Barkley in every lineup. I am fading Fading TEN and NYG wide receivers. Lock in Hill 100%, punt TE to Cager, play whatever DEF you can afford. Good luck, let’s win tonight!