There’s an old expression that says you can’t compete with Santa Claus. In a couple of days, we are celebrating Thanksgiving, and although Tom Turkey isn’t quite the Fat Man in Red, he does occupy a great deal of attention.
Brotherly Love:
No, I’m not talking about Philadelphia or the Eagles. I’m talking about Monday Night’s matchup between the Ravens and the Chargers in Los Angeles. HC John Harbaugh faced off against his brother Jim, as his Ravens defeated Jim’s Chargers 30-23.
Derrick Henry rushed for 140 yards, leading Baltimore to a much-needed victory. Every season, everyone proclaims the Ravens as “The Team”, and QB Lamar Jackson as “The QB”…and although Jackson has won MVP, he hasn’t been able to get them over the hump yet. Maybe Henry will make the difference. He actually outran the entire Chargers team, who could only muster a combined 83 rushing yds.
Have’s and Have Not’s in the AFC:
A few years ago, the NFL expanded its playoff teams to seven and restructured their seedings, with the No. 1 team getting a bye and the other six battling it out. This year in the AFC, only seven teams are over .500…needless to say, those seven teams are currently in the playoffs if the season ended today.
Kansas City would have the No. 1 seed and the bye (even though they are looking shakier and shakier each week). The Bills would face the upstart Broncos in Buffalo. The Steelers would play the Chargers in Pittsburgh, which is a huge home-field advantage in January. And the Ravens would have a really tough draw on the road in Houston to face off against the Texans. And although the Ravens currently have a better record and CJ Stroud hasn’t matched his rookie season, it will still be difficult for Jackson, Henry, and Harbaugh to leave the field with a win.
Have’s and Have Not’s in the NFC:
There are eight teams over 500 in the NFC, with Arizona currently on the outside looking in, with their 6-5 record. The Eagles are a great no.2 seed that would be the no.1 seed most years, sitting with a 9-2 record. The Vikings are an even more unfortunate no.5 seed, with the same 9-2 record.
In fact, all three wildcard teams have better records than the no.3 and no.4 seeds. If the season ended today, the Vikings would go on the road to play the 6-5 Falcons. The 8-3 Packers would go on the road to face off against the 6-5 Seahawks in Seattle. At 7-4, the Commanders are the no.7 seed. And although that’s better than two division winners, at least they’d be heading to Philadelphia to face the 9-2 Eagles.
Run Saquon, Run:
On Sunday, Saquon Barkley rushed for 255 yards and two TDs. For the season, he has nearly 1400 yards and 10 TDs…(he’d have more if it weren’t for Jalen Hurts and the tush push.). He’s currently tied with Jared Goff as the third option in the MVP race. Josh Allen is leading at +150. Next is Lamar Jackson at +250, then Goff and Barkley, each sitting at +700. Patrick Mahomes and his subpar season is fifth, sitting at +800. Yes, this is typically a QB award, but at +700, with the season Barkley and the Eagles are having, it’s not the worst value bet I’ve ever seen.
And Other Year-End Bets:
If I’m going to handicap the MVP award, I may as well also take a peek at the Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year races. The rookie of the year race looked like a race of one, but as of late Denver’s QB Bo Nix has inched forward…and, some may say, has taken the lead. Vegas still has Daniels ahead at -180, but at +150, Nix is a nice option. A couple more losses for the Commanders, paired with a couple more wins for the Broncos, and those odds will definitely flip-flop.
The Coach of the Year award is a tad more wide open. At first glance, the award should and would go to Dan Campbell. He is the favorite, sitting at +175. His team has only lost one game, and they are the no.1 seed in the NFC, with many saying they are the best team in football. They are 10-1 and have won nine games in a row.
But, an argument can be made for Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell, who has led them to a 9-2 record thus far. And if you asked 100 people, all 100 would have put Detroit ahead of Minnesota at the start of the season. Nobody saw this coming from Minnesota. His odds are twice Campbell’s odds, sitting at +350.
And then there is Sean Payton (+600), Jim Harbaugh, and Mike Tomlin (each +650). Harbaugh’s loss to his brother this week and Tomlin’s loss to the lowly Browns have diminished their chances, but Payton’s Broncos are definitely a surprise with their rookie QB leading the way. As intriguing as it is to take the longer odds, I think I’ll go with the chalk here…and although I’m one of his biggest detractors, Campbell is a deserving coach of the year winner.
It’s Never Too Early:
And speaking of great coaches, will Bill Belichick ever coach again? As more and more coaches get fired and more on the horizon, there will be many options for Belichick, if any become available to him.
In looking at the landscape, there is one spot I can see him going: Chicago. HC Matt Eberflus will not survive this season. His Bears are a disappointing 4-7 and on a five-game losing streak. And although he’s had a few bad beats this season, the buck stops with the head coach. Eberflus will be gone by season’s end.
Belichick loves the history of the game, and would love the opportunity to coach one of the true pioneer teams of the league. He’d love to get back into the NFC, and most of all, he’d love to latch on to a team with a chance. This team does have talent, and Belichick is still a brilliant mind and tactician of the game. Even with their 4-7 record, they have actually scored more points than they’ve given up this season, 221-217. This is a far better team than their record. This makes all the sense in the world and is a great landing spot for the aging coach. The fanbase would be instantly revitalized, and the franchise would gain instant credibility. As long as he makes them contenders and puts them in the mix, somewhere around .500 would be enough…and if he could lead them to double-digit wins and a playoff berth, they’d hold a parade and build a statue for him.
You heard it hear first…Bill Belichick to the Chicago Bears in 2025.
Happy Thanksgiving.