The calendar has finally flipped to March, but we haven’t started the madness just yet. It’s the last week of college basketball’s regular season, meaning that this is the last week of the standard upset variety before we start talking about tournament upsets! Let’s see if we can pick off a few this week!
Wednesday March 5th
Oklahoma State over UCF
UCF has had a few chances to start turning their season around, and they continue to let them slip. I wrote them up last week as an upset pick over TCU, and they let me down. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is playing better basketball as the end of the season draws near, beating Iowa State and playing competitively against Baylor. Oklahoma State also has a distinct advantage in this game on the glass as UCF is one of the nation’s worst rebounding teams, and both Abou Ousmane and Marchelus Avery will have double-double opportunities in this game.
Maryland over Michigan
If the home sites were reversed, Maryland would almost certainly be favored in this game. But with this game taking place in Ann Arbor, I would expect Michigan to tip off as a slight favorite. The main advantage that Michigan has over opponents is their size with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, and that will be neutralized with Maryland’s frontcourt of Derik Queen and Julian Reese. With their key advantage neutered and numerous holed to poke in their recent performances, it’s hard to like Michigan in this spot.
Thursday March 6th
Evansville over Murray State (Missouri Valley Tournament)
Conference tournaments are often a haven for upsets, and this is one I’m trying to call the one they call “Arch Madness.” Evansville enters this tournament on a 3-game slide, but they were all against upper-echelon teams in the MVC, and they were all close games. But the reason I really like Evansville in this one is the fact that they have already beaten Murray State, and it doesn’t feel like that game was an outlier as both teams shot the ball around their average, and Murray State had the rebounding advantage. It feels like Evansville should be able to repeat this result.
Friday March 7th
Dayton over VCU
Let’s get this squared away: Dayton is the most talented team in the Atlantic 10, and own wins over Marquette and UConn. They have just failed to play up to that talent level for most of the season. Well, it’s now put-up-or-shut-up time for the Flyers, as they will need to win this game to finish with a double-bye in the A10 tournament, which they will need to win in order to make the NCAA Tournament. In the first meeting between these two teams, VCU dominated the glass (which is not typical of either team’s profile) and came from behind to win. Dayton knows they let that one slip away, and would love nothing more than to get revenge on their rivals from Richmond.
Saturday March 8th
Stanford over Louisville
This is a classic strength-against-weakness game. Stanford is very tall as a team and will play through center Maxime Raynaud, and Louisville is not a great interior defense. I will also continue to bang the drum that Louisville has a wide range of outcomes, as they shoot 3-pointers at a very high rate and only make 33% of them, on average, outside the top 200 in the country.