There are only four teams remaining in the NBA playoffs, and here are my bold predictions for the two conference finals series:
Pacers Over Knicks in Five Games
Indiana has won its previous two series in five games compared to New York’s six-game series in the first round and conference semifinals. However, the Eastern Conference Finals will be a different animal for the Knicks. New York faced a young, stubborn Detroit squad that traded blows through their first-round series. Their semifinals matchup with Boston could have finished differently if Jayson Tatum hadn’t suffered a torn Achilles during game four. The Knicks earned their victories against Boston, but two of their wins were by a combined four points. Other than game four’s eight-point victory and game six’s 38-point blowout, New York has not shown dominance during the playoffs. Analyzing Indiana, the Pacers have averaged their playoff victories by 11.6 points compared to New York’s 4.1 (this excludes game six of the conference semifinals). The Pacers have been the more dominant team throughout the playoffs, and New York should expect Indiana to continue their fast pace of play. The Knicks may win game one at Madison Square Garden, but the Pacers should be expected to quickly rebound from the bright lights of MSG and take the series in five games.
Pacers Average 115 PPG & Knicks Average 110 PPG
During the regular season, New York finished 2-1 against Indiana. The Knicks held the Pacers to 115 PPG while averaging 124 PPG during their three regular-season matchups. Tyrese Halliburton will be the difference during the conference finals. Following the All-Star game, Tyrese Halliburton busted out of his mediocre first half, seeing his production increase in every category. He raised PPG from 17.8 to 20.6 and assists from 8.5 to 11.0. Halliburton has averaged 17.5 PPG and 9.3 assists through Indiana’s first two playoff series. Comparing both teams’ playoff production, Indiana has outperformed New York in all scoring categories, assists, and blocks. The Pacers are poised to continue their offensive production, ranked 2nd in the playoffs. New York may not go toe-to-toe with Indiana’s offensive output, but they can keep games close with their ability to create points off turnovers and rebounds for second-chance baskets.
Oklahoma City Over Minnesota in Six Games
This series has the chance of going seven, but Oklahoma City will want to end it as soon as possible after defeating Denver in seven games. The Thunder and Timberwolves split their regular-season matchups 2-2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the head-to-head contests with 35.0 PPG compared to Anthony Edwards, who led Minnesota with 22.3 PPG. Oklahoma City is not an ideal matchup for Minnesota as the Thunder are 2nd in point differential during the playoffs, 3rd in PPG, and 1st in opponents FG%. They’ve outperformed Minnesota in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. The Timberwolves have performed well in their first two playoff series, but their frontcourt tandem of Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid will no longer have the upper hand as they did against the Lakers and Warriors. The Thunder will show signs of fatigue, allowing Minnesota to win twice, but will prevail in six games.
Chet Holmgren & Isaiah Hartenstein Average a Double-Double
Both big men have performed well in the playoffs with double-digit points and close to double-digit rebounds. The Thunder still have the conference semifinals ousting from a season ago on their minds, and the duo of Holmgren/Hartenstein will need to crash the glass hard to fend off Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid. They will get theirs offensively, but opportunities for offensive and defensive rebounds will be abundant. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will undoubtedly lead the team in scoring, but Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein will be the series difference makers, with both big men averaging double-doubles.
