You might say there is payback on the line here as the Chiefs lost their bid for a perfect season when Buffalo defeated them in Week 11 30- 21. In that game, the Chiefs were only able to rush for 78 yards, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 196 yards and had two interceptions. The Bills, on the other hand, were more balanced and led by Josh Allen, who threw for 262 yards. The big difference in that game was that Mahomes threw two interceptions, and it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to do the same in the championship game at home.
When Buffalo has the ball:
Everything the Bills do revolves around Josh Allen. Not only is he one of the best passers in the league, but he’s also one of the best rushers. His ability around the goal line separates him from most of his competition, and he will have to play at his top level to pull off the upset. Kansas City has a very strong run defense, and they are going to force Allen into obvious passing-down situations so that their great pass rush can get to him. It’s how Allen reacts to the pressure that could set the tone in this game.
Bills Run Game:
Even though Week 11 is just a few short weeks ago, the Bills offense seems to have changed immeasurably. They have become a true run-first team led by James Cook, who has been phenomenal. It’s hard to overlook how good Ty Johnson has been as the third down receiving back, and even Ray Davis as the backup has been excellent in goal-line situations. The Bills are going to need all three of their running backs to produce close to 150 all-purpose yards in order to win.
Bills Pass Catchers:
Khalil Shakir has been the Bills best receiver against zone coverage. And it’s been good to see Curtis Samuel stepping up over the past few weeks in the passing game. However, where the Chiefs have really struggled all season has been against opposing tight ends. When these teams played the first time, Dalton Kincaid missed the game with an injury, and Dawson Knox had 4 receptions for 40 yards. It wouldn’t shock me to see Knox and Kincaid get about 8 to 10 receptions between the two of them which will make the Bills very hard to stop offensively.
When Kansas City has the ball:
When his career is done, Patrick Mahomes may go on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks. He always knows where his receivers are; he always knows where the first down marker is, and he always finds a way to make a play when needed. What he’s also doing so well this year is that he’s forcing the referees to call penalties by creating more roughing the passer situations than we’ve seen in a long time. This will definitely be a point of contention, as a lot of people have been complaining about Mahomes. The NFL will be ultra careful to make sure that this game is officiated fairly.
Chiefs Run Game:
Since his return, Isiah Pacheco has not been as explosive as he was prior to his injury. What the Chiefs have done a very good job of, though, has been to integrate both Pacheco and Kareem Hunt into their offense. The way to beat the Bills, however, is with a power running attack, which the Chiefs don’t have. It’ll be interesting to see if the Chiefs abandon their run game if they don’t have early success.
Chiefs Pass Catchers:
One of the big differences in this game may be the return of Bills linebacker Matt Milano. Milano is one of the best cover linebackers in the league and he will be tasked with covering Travis Kelce on Sunday. Kelce is the Chiefs most important receiver, and Mahomes loves going to him in big games. If the Bills are able to neutralize Kelce, then they are going to need Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, or DeAndre Hopkins or even all of them to step up. The Bills secondary does an excellent job of avoiding getting beat deep. Mahomes will certainly test the Bills CBs with Worthy and Brown who are two of the fastest receivers in the league.
Prediction:
As good as the Chiefs have been over the years it feels like that it’s the Bills’ time to shine. The only thing that can get in the way now will be a controversial call by the referees which would really hurt the NFL with so many people watching. Bills 31-27.