Last week, we were within seconds of hitting our biggest upset of the season as UCF had Houston on the ropes and let up a last-second layup to lose (but at least they still covered the spread!). We’re back to the drawing board this week to see if we can find another double-digit dog who can finish the job!
UNC-Wilmington over Charleston
This season, Charleston has had a very clear modus operandi. If Ante Brzovic is able to dominate the opposing big man, they play very well. But this is not a good rebounding team that does not force a lot of blocks or steals. Enter UNC-Wilmington, who has plenty of size to throw at Brzovic, and is an elite rebounding team. Simply put, Wilmington is likely to get more shots off in this game by out-rebounding and having fewer turnovers than Charleston, and I like my chances with an underdog who’s going to get more shot attempts off – it just changes the math.
Wake Forest over North Carolina
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the toughest teams to evaluate in the whole country. While they don’t have any bad losses, they often fail to blow out bad teams. Their lone quadrant 1 win on the season was early in the season against Michigan. This has led to the advanced metrics, such as KenPom, undervaluing this Wake Forest team as they have underperformed their expectation, but at the same time, they aren’t losing many games! I think this is a great spot for Wake, as the Tar Heels are coming to town fresh off of a loss to Stanford, where Maxime Raynaud destroyed the Carolina frontcourt. Big men and bigger guards have killed UNC all season long, and I think the frontcourt of Reid and Spillers and the dynamic playmaker Hunter Sallis can take advantage and notch a solid win for the “Deacs.”
Minnesota over Iowa
This Iowa team is struggling to defend anyone right now, giving up over 90 points to USC and UCLA and falling to 159th in the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Say what you want about this Minnesota team, but they are on the rise, losing a close game to Maryland and knocking off Michigan in Overtime. And both Dawson Garcia and Lu’Cye Patterson can flat-out score the basketball, particularly against a bad defense.
USC over Nebraska
The Cornhuskers are on a 4-game slide, which may lead people to believe they are due for a win, but I think the slide will continue here against a surging USC Trojans team that has beaten Illinois and Iowa in conference play. Nebraska’s inside-out defense forces teams to shoot a lot of 3-pointers (the 6th-highest rate in the nation), and USC shoots it well at 35% as a team on the entire season. Much has been made of Big Ten teams making cross-country road trips this season, but this one isn’t too unreasonable, as it is being tipped at 6PM on USC’s local time zone.
Washington over UCLA
It feels easy to pick on Mick Cronin’s UCLA team, who have lost 4 of their last 5. Their season-long metrics are still strong, but they are not playing well at all right now, which will lead to them being over-valued – unless they figure something out in the next 4 days. This is a rematch of a game where UCLA won by 11 points at home, and Washington shot 18% from 3-point range. Flip the location, get some positive shooting regression, and add to the fact that both teams are heading in opposite directions, and I think you have a recipe for Washington to at least cover a double-digit spread, if not win outright.