There are two great AFC Divisional Round playoff games this weekend, and we have predictions and previews for both:
BAL @ BUF
The 3rd seed Ravens head to Buffalo to take on the 2nd seed Chiefs in one of two AFC Divisional round matchups. Here are previews and a prediction for how this game will turn out:
When Baltimore has the ball:
When Baltimore signed Derrick Henry this past offseason, they were looking at what he would be able to do in the playoffs to help them get back to the Super Bowl. Against Pittsburgh, one of the top run defenses in the league, Henry had 26 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns, leading the Ravens to victory. When Baltimore played Buffalo earlier in the season, Henry had 24 carries for 199 yards and a touchdown. While it’s unfair to expect the same production, they will lean on Henry just as heavily this time around. By giving Henry 25+ carries, it keeps the time of possession in the hands of Baltimore and more importantly, it keeps Josh Allen off the field.
Lamar Jackson:
Jackson only threw the ball 18 times when these teams met earlier in the season, and I doubt he’s going to throw more than 25 to 28 times this week in Buffalo. Jackson’s going to use his legs as much as possible and find some timely passes downfield. When Baltimore struggles, it’s often in the passing game. Without Zay Flowers (who is likely to miss this game with a knee injury), the Ravens are going to have to rely on Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. The Bills have done well in tight end pass coverage, so either Rashod Bateman and/or Nelson Agholor will need to step up so Baltimore is not so reliant on the run game.
When Buffalo has the ball:
When these teams played in Week 5, the Bills had not found their offensive identity just yet. The team only ran for 81 yards on 23 carries as Baltimore’s defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage. Since that game, Buffalo has taken a huge step and is now one of the top running teams in the AFC. Not only has James Cook proven to be one of the top running backs in the league, but Josh Allen is more than capable of rushing for 60 to 80 yards per game and getting key first downs when necessary.
Josh Allen:
Something clicked for Josh Allen later in the season when he exploded not only with his arm but also with his legs. When the Bills played the Ravens the first time around, they did not have Amari Cooper. Cooper will make a big difference in this game as he is the best receiver the Bills have against man coverage. Khalil Shakir is fantastic against zone coverage, as is Dalton Kincaid at tight end. Allen is going to need to throw the ball about 35 to 40 times, as it’s expected to be a back-and-forth game.
Prediction:
This game may come down to the coin toss to see who gets the ball first in the second half. If Buffalo can stop Henry on the early downs and force Jackson into obvious passing situations they have a real shot to win. However, if Henry runs against the Bills this week like he did against them earlier this season, the Ravens will win this game comfortably, just like they did the last time.
HOU @ KC
The 4th seed Texans head to Kansas City to take on the 1st seed Chiefs in one of two AFC Divisional round matchups. Here are previews and a prediction for how this game will turn out:
When Houston has the ball:
Against the Chargers, Houston was able to control the game flow by feeding running back Joe Mixon, which allowed them to open up their play-action passing game. The Texans know they need to control the time of possession and will do everything they can to try to replicate that game plan against the Chiefs. If Mixon can get 20+ carries, it means that things are going well offensively for the Texans, and the game should be close. If the Chiefs run defense is playing to its top level, then it’ll force Houston to be in obvious passing situations, which is going to create a lot of sack opportunities for Chris Jones and the rest of the Chiefs defense.
Texans Playmakers:
Nico Collins is the focal point of the Texans passing offense, but the real key is going to be Dalton Schultz. Kansas City has struggled all year long covering opposing tight ends and this feels like a game where Schultz must be heavily involved. The Texans cut Diontae Johnson this past week, who was once again upset with his lack of snaps. Collins is going to see heavy double teams, so it will be incumbent upon John Metchie, Robert Woods, and even Xavier Hutchinson to pick up the slack.
When Kansas City has the ball:
The Texans were able to hold JK Dobbins to a mere 26 rushing yards last week, so neither Isiah Pacheco nor Kareem Hunt feels like they are in a great situation. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is in a fantastic situation. He’s going to be able to take advantage of a weak Texans secondary and should be able to run for a few yards as he escapes the grasp of Will Anderson and the rest of the Texans DL.
Chiefs Weapons:
What makes the Chiefs so difficult to play is that offensively, they have numerous receivers who can dominate. DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce are exceptional against zone coverage schemes, and Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are terrific against man coverage. Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the top cornerbacks in the league but he’s only able to cover one of the receivers, so expect Mahomes to spread the ball around to take advantage of the coverages.
Prediction:
Houston played perhaps its best game of the season in the wild-card round. To expect to go into Kansas City and perform equally as well seems a bit too much to ask.
