As the calendar flips to 2025, conference play has officially started around the country. And with the exception of a few one-off games here and there, it is here to stay until we have a bracket on Selection Sunday. With conference play comes a different set of variables when picking games. The point spreads will be closer and the home environments will be more raucous, and all teams will have a baseline level of familiarity with each other. Here is who we like to pull off the upsets this week:
Arkansas over Florida
Usually, teams that are more talented on paper don’t end up as home underdogs, but that is going to be the case here. Objectively, Florida has been better than Arkansas this season. But also objectively, Arkansas’ roster is significantly more athletic and talented. I think that a matchup like this is where Calipari’s Arkansas team can excel if they are able to use their athleticism to their advantage on both ends of the court. They must be able to get to the rim and prevent Florida from knocking down outside shots, but I like their chances if they do.
Indiana over Iowa
In Indiana’s last 3 seasons, they have often played better with only one big man on the floor. In their most recent 3-game win streak, it has been by necessity, as Oumar Ballo was suspended and Malik Reneau is injured (without a timetable for his return). But in those 3 games, Indiana is averaging right around 79 points per game and has increased their offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Iowa is just a poor defensive team – they rank 126th nationally in defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and have just given up 116 to Wisconsin. These are two teams heading in the opposite direction on opposite sides of the ball, and I will buy the stock of the one that is trending upwards.
Notre Dame over NC State
To this point in the season, NC State definitely has a better resume and has the homecourt advantage in this one. But Notre Dame just got their best player back from injury in Markus Burton. Notre Dame was a team that improved as the season progressed last year, and I expect them to do the same now that their guy is back in the lineup.
Xavier over St Johns
Even though they lost to Georgetown, good news befell the Xavier program when Zach Freemantle was active for the game. He looked good, too, and should be a huge contributor as long as he can stay healthy through the rest of the season. Meanwhile, St. Johns is still searching for their first Quadrant 1 victory of the season, and Rick Pitino has been tinkering with their starting lineups and rotations. I don’t think the Johnnies have figured things out just yet, and the Cintas Center will be rocking to see Freemantle again. Give me the Musketeers for a resume-building win.
UNLV over Boise State
The Runnin’ Rebels are yet to notch a signature win so far this season but have been pesky, with close losses to Memphis, Northwestern, and Dayton. In fact, UNLV has not lost since losing to Dayton by 1 in UD Arena. Boise is a little bit in flux, coming off of a loss to San Diego State that saw some changes in their rotation. Even if they don’t win outright, I think UNLV can be a pest to the best teams in the Mountain West this season, and I like them in this spot.