Blog

NCAA College Basketball Upset Watch

Mike Connolly

Published

6 days ago

COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 04: A view of the NCAA logo on a basketball before the game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Ohio State Buckeyes at Xfinity Center on December 04, 2024 in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Last week was a quiet week in the college basketball world, but our upset picks won 2 out of 3 games outright. With more games on the docket to choose from, let’s see if we can replicate that same success here this week.

Wake Forest over Syracuse

CHARLESTON, SC – NOVEMBER 16: The Wake Forest Demon Deacons logo on a pair of shorts during day one of the Shriners Children’s Charleston Classic college basketball game against the Utah Utes at the TD Arena on November 16, 2023 in Charleston, South Carolina. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

This is more of a fade of Syracuse than a vote of confidence in Wake Forest. Syracuse is likely to continue to be without starting guard JJ Starling, and they have not beaten a team that ranks inside the top 200 in KenPom while Starling has been injured. Wake Forest is a team with talent and has beaten Michigan this season, but a lot of close wins over bad teams are pulling their advanced metrics down. I think that this is the start of their turnaround, and we’re buying them at their low.

Davidson over George Mason

FAIRFAX, VA – FEBRUARY 24: The George Mason Patriots logo on the floor before a college basketball game against the George Washington Colonials at Eagle Bank Arena on February 24, 2021 in Fairfax, Virginia. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

This is a game that I think is stylistically a great matchup for Davidson. George Mason turns the ball over a lot and does not shoot a lot of 3s. Meanwhile, Davidson is going to take care of the basketball and shoot the 3 at a high level. It’s hard to win when you’re matching 2s with 3s. George Mason also does not yet own a win over a team in the top 150 in KenPom.

Northwestern over Penn State

COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND – FEBRUARY 28: A view of the Northwestern Wildcats logo on their uniform during the game against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center on February 28, 2024 in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Road wins in conference play are tough to come by. But I am picking the Wildcats to get it done in Happy Valley this Thursday. Northwestern’s metrics are being dragged down from their time playing without Brooks Barnhizer, and they are a different team with him in the lineup. Meanwhile, Penn State has its metrics being propped up by blowing out a bunch of bad teams.

Rutgers over Indiana

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA – FEBRUARY 24: The Indiana Hoosiers logo shown on a pair a of shorts during a college basketball game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at the Bryce Joyce Center on February 24, 2024 in University Park, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

I see Rutgers as a nightmare matchup for Indiana. The Hoosiers are a team that likes to play two true bigs, play from inside out offensively, and protect the rim defensively. Rutgers is a team that is going to play elite draft prospect Ace Bailey at the power forward spot and shoot a lot of jump shots off the dribble and not at the rim. I don’t think Indiana will be able to use the strengths of their team against Rutgers.

Kansas State over TCU

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 18: The TCU Horned Frogs logo on appear of shorts during a college basketball game against the Georgetown Hoyas at the Capital One Arena on December 18, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

It has been a rough start to the season for the Wildcats, but this is more of a bet on talent than anything – few teams spent more on NIL than Kansas State this offseason when they went and got Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins in the portal. TCU’s starting point guard, Frankie Collins, is out for the season, and this is as good of a chance as ever for Kansas State to get things turned around.

In this article: