DraftKings
Matchup Analyzer
What each offense calls, how well it works, and how the other defense holds up against it. Rates are pulled toward league average, so small samples can’t shout.
How to read these numbers
Success = the play gained enough for the down and distance (it raised the offense’s expected points). League average is about 41% on designed runs and 50% on targets.
Player edge = how much more often this player succeeds on this kind of play than the league does. D edge = how much more (+) or less (−) this defense allows on it than the league. Both are in success-rate points, pulled toward league average when the sample is small.
Net = player edge + D edge. +10 means about 10 more productive plays per 100 than an average player against an average defense: more catches that move the chains, more carries that gain real yards. It is not a yardage or points projection.
Example: a receiver at 81% on quick outs (league 52%) is about +15; a defense allowing 46% there is −4, a headwind. Net +11: still a good spot, driven by the player, not the defense.