QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Miami still has an outside shot at the playoffs, and the best way to beat Houston is through the air. Look for Tua to continue to be sharp and throw for 265 yards and at least 2 TDs.
QB: Joe Burrow, Bengals
Burrow gets to face his old OC and show him just how much he learned under his tutelage. Burrow has played like an MVP, even if the rest of his team hasn’t. Look for Tee Higgins to be more involved this week after taking a backseat to Ja’Marr Chase the last few games. Burrow should throw for 300+ yards and at least 2 TDs, with three a strong possibility.
QB: Justin Herbert, Chargers
It’s hard to run on Tampa, but they have been one of the most generous teams to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert is not playing at 100%, but he knows his team needs the win at home, and with Ladd McConkey likely back, I think they will get the win. Herbert will throw for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns.
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Jets
Rodgers gets to pad his stats against a team that plays tons of man coverage. With Breece Hall likely out once again, Rodgers will throw for 240 yards and 2 TDs (one going to Davante Adams).
QB: Bo Nix, Broncos
The BYE week came a good time for Denver as they had time to rest up for the playoff push. If not for Jayden Daniels, Nix would likely be the Rookie of the Year. He will make a statement against the Colts, who play a ton of Cover 3 defense, which Nix should be able to handle without issue. Look for Nix to throw for 230 yards and a TD and run for another 40 yards.
RB: Derrick Henry, Ravens
The Giants are in big trouble this week as they will have no answer for the Ravens and their explosive offense. Henry’s prop bet is 100.5 rushing yards, and I think he can go for more than 140 yards and two touchdowns.
RB: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Although the Raiders run defense has been better as of late, Robinson is such an effective pass catcher that he should get at least 140 yards from scrimmage and likely find the end zone in a game that the Falcons absolutely have to win if they have any chance of making the playoffs.
RB: David Montgomery, Lions
For the Lions to win, they’re going to have to control the time of possession and keep Josh Allen off the field. The best way to do that is to run the ball right at the Bills, whose Achilles heel is their run defense. Expect Montgomery to have 85 yards rushing and a touchdown..
RB: Brian Robinson, Jr., Commanders
Back from the bye week and healthy, Robinson should see at least 20 to 25 touches and find his way to 90 yards rushing and a touchdown.
RB: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
The Panthers defense has played much better as of late, but then again, so has Dowdle. He’s shown that he can handle a full load of carries and has also shown surprising hands out of the backfield. Look for him to have about 120 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
WR: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
The Texans defense has allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers as well as the 7th most receiving yards. The best way to attack the Texans is to keep passing, and that’s what Tua is going to do. Look for Hill to have a huge game with over 100+ receiving and a TD.
WR: Amari Cooper, Bills
Cooper saw double-digit targets in Week 14, and I am looking for him to follow up with another good game against Detroit, who plays a ton of man coverage. Cooper is Josh Allen’s best target against man coverage, and he should see double-digit targets again. I like him to have about 85 to 90 yards receiving and a touchdown.
WR: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
Expect McConkey to return this week, and even though he will be playing a tough Tampa zone defense, he should be able to find space and he is very dangerous after the catch. Tampa has a fourth-worst DVOA versus slot receivers which should help Ladd to have about 75 to 80 yards receiving and at least 7 receptions.
WR: Courtland Sutton, Broncos
When the pocket is kept clean, Bo Nix is a much more accurate quarterback. Denver’s OL has a big advantage over Indianapolis’s DL which means that Nix should be able to pick the Colts secondary apart. The Colts play a ton of Cover 3 defense, which Sutton loves, and he is the one Denver receiver who can be counted on for a full amount of snaps.
WR: Adam Thielen, Panthers
Part of the Panthers resurgence over the last few weeks has been in part due to the outstanding play of Adam Thielen. Dave Canales finds ways to move him around pre-snap and make sure that he gets open. Moreover, Bryce Young trusts him, and Dallas’ defense has been extremely generous to WR1. Put Thielen down for 15-18 fantasy points.
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings
Over the past few weeks, the Bears have been overly generous to opposing tight ends, including Trey McBride and George Kittle. The Bears do a very good job of limiting slot receivers, but they really struggle against running backs and opposing tight ends. I think Hockenson ends up with about 16 to 20 fantasy points.
TE: David Njoku, Browns
The Chiefs have the third-worst DVOA versus opposing tight ends and have struggled the entire season against the position. With Cedric Tillman still not practicing, Njoku should see double-digit targets, and I really like him to have about 8 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown.
TE: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
Carolina has the second-worst DVOA versus opposing tight ends, which should be right in line for Ferguson to have a big game. Ferguson struggled in his first game back from injury, but I think he will have a much better week against Carolina, so look for him to have about 6 catches for 60 yards and a good chance at the touchdown.
TE: Kyle Pitts, Falcons
It’s hard to imagine endorsing Pitts after the horrible season that he’s had, but the Raiders have the fourth worst DVOA versus opposing tight ends and it always feels like just when you think Pitts will do nothing, he has a good game. My visionary hunch is that Pitts goes 5 for 50 and finds the end zone.
TE: Stone Smartt, Chargers
Tampa Bay has the six worst DVOA versus opposing tight ends. Will Dissly just went on the IR after getting injured in last week’s game so Smart should be the in there on obvious passing downs. He is also a great DFS flyer at a minimum price.
