#1 – Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These two teams have the fastest adjusted pace time for the week (28.5) and one of the fastest averages of neutral seconds per snap (27.7). The Falcons are the 2nd fastest in seconds/snap (24.7), 1st in situation-neutral seconds per snap, 8th in total plays run, and 9th in pass percentage (59.1). The Bucs are 8th in total plays run, have the 6th highest Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (62.4%), and are 12th in pass percentage (57.9). QB Kirk Cousins and the Falcons WRs both get the 5th best matchups vs the Bucs defense, according to DVOA. The Bucs are down to 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
The Falcons defense isn’t much better. They are 31st in success rate, defending passing plays (51.6) and allowing 4.9 scoring plays per game, tied for 29th in the league. With the Bucs down their two top WRs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Baker Mayfield will have to rely on his former Oklahoma Sooner teammate Sterling Shepard and smooth slot maven rookie Jalen McMillan, making pace an even more important variable in this one.
#2 – Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
SANTA CLARA, CA – JANUARY 14: Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks passes against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFC Wild Card playoff game at Levi’s Stadium on January 14, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Seahawks 41-23. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
This game is tied for the fastest average of neutral seconds per snap (26.9) and the highest combined Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (61%). Games involving the Seahawks are averaging a league-high 127.9 plays per game. This is a pace-up spot for the Bills as the Seahawks are playing at a blistering pace. They come in 3rd in seconds/snap (24.8), 1st in total plays run, 1st in Pass Percentage (66.5%), 3rd in neutral seconds per snap (26), 1st in Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (71.9%), and 3rd in Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage (27.6%).
According to DVOA, quarterback Josh Allen has the third-best passing matchup. With DK Metcalf expected to miss this one, Geno Smith will have to get it done with a lower ADOT, using Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jake Bobo to fill the void. This game has an O/U point total of 47.0.
#3-Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins
FRANKFURT AM MAIN, GERMANY – NOVEMBER 5: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa of Miami Dolphins looks on during the NFL match between Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs at Deutsche Bank Park on November 5, 2023 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo by Ralf Ibing – firo sportphoto/Getty Images)
This game also has the fastest average of neutral seconds per snap (26.9), and both teams are near the top of the league in adjusted pace (29.4). Both teams are tied for 7th in seconds per snap (26.9), and the Dolphins are first in the league in plays run per game (65.3).
The return of QB Tua Tagovailoa is the key storyline in this one, as he looks to bring the Dolphins’ offense back to life. Miami has averaged 6.4 yards per play with Tua on the field compared to 4.7 yards per play without him. Tyreke Hill could be over 60% owned in DFS this week, but that’s ok still use him, he should be back to the Tyreek we know! Arizona has the worst success rate defensively against passing plays (47.5%). This game has an O/U point total of 46.5.
