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Early Best Ball Quarterback ADP Analysis: Top Undervalued QBs

Ted takes a look at quarterbacks who are being underdrafted in early fantasy football ADP compared to their 2023 production.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 31: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Yesterday, I introduced the world to a brand-new, mostly nonsense fantasy football metric that I am calling Value Score. If you want the full explanation of how it works, plus a list of the most overvalued quarterbacks according to Value Score, check out that article. If you don’t want to read all that, the short explanation is that Value Score compares a player’s 2024 positional ADP (on Underdog Best Ball drafts) to their 2023 scoring in both total points and points per game, because maybe players that scored lots of points this year will score lots of points again next year.

In yesterday’s article, we discovered that a high negative Value Score is really good at identifying players who were injured in 2023 and not much else, although I do think it did help identify some overvalued signal-callers (*cough* C.J. Stroud *cough*). However, I think identifying undervalued players could be where this metric is most useful. After all, there’s no positive equivalent of injury that can greatly skew a player’s fantasy production upward; if they scored points, they probably earned them. With that in mind, here are the quarterbacks that are currently being the most disrespected according to the difference between their 2023 production and 2024 ADP.

Undervalued Quarterbacks 2024 Fantasy Football

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
  • 2024 ADP: QB35
  • 2023 Total Points: QB11
  • 2023 PPG: QB21
  • Value Score: 38

This one is pretty straightforward, and it doesn’t look good for Value Score once we consider context. Howell volumed his way to a QB1 finish in 2023, but is almost guaranteed to find himself without a starting job in 2024. If anything, QB35 is too high for a low-ceiling soon-to-be backup.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
  • 2024 ADP: QB29
  • 2023 Total Points: QB12
  • 2023 PPG: QB15
  • Value Score: 31

At first glance, Wilson is in the same bucket as Howell. The Broncos are so committed to moving on from him that they benched him at the end of the season, while they were still technically alive for the playoffs, in order to ensure he didn’t suffer an injury that would trigger additional guarantees in his contract. However, I think Wilson has a better chance than Howell of being a starter heading into 2024 … if only because he is likely to be a free agent while Howell is stuck in Washington (barring a trade). With that in mind, I’m tempted to chalk this up as a win for Value Score. After all, Wilson was the QB15 in points per game last year in a mediocre situation and has a solid chance to start again in 2024. What’s not to like about getting him all the way down at QB29? However, in actually looking at the names above him, there are only a few (sorry Bryce Young and Derek Carr) I would feel comfortable selecting Mr. Unlimited over, at least until we know where (and if) he’s going to play football next season.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • 2024 ADP: QB24
  • 2023 Total Points: QB9
  • 2023 PPG: QB17
  • Value Score: 22

Now we’re talking. Baker is currently a free agent, but reports that he is likely on his way back to Tampa make all the sense in the world coming off the best season of his career and a playoff win for the Buccaneers. The absence of OC Dave Canales (now the head coach of the Panthers) may hurt Mayfield’s production, but I think the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin deserve just as much credit as Canales for the former first-overall pick’s resurgence. As long as both he and Evans (also a free agent) are back in Tampa come September, I think there’s a very good chance Baker outplays his QB24 ADP with another solid top-20 finish.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
  • 2024 ADP: QB11
  • 2023 Total Points: QB5
  • 2023 PPG: QB6
  • Value Score: 11

Just looking at Love’s individual performance, he seems to be clearly undervalued. He was the QB5 in total points, as well as the QB6 in points per game (also QB5 on a per-game basis if you don’t count Joe Flacco’s magical five-game run). This was in his first year as a starter, with a group of weapons composed entirely of rookies and sophomores, many of whom missed significant time. However, his QB11 ADP starts to make more sense when you consider the list of names between him and his 2023 QB5 finish: C.J. Stroud, Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow. This is a list of elite dual-threat QBs and franchise quarterbacks. Surprisingly, the only name on this list I’m fully confident in taking Love over is the one ranked highest by ADP: Stroud (for more on my confusion over his ADP, check out yesterday’s article). I would also take Love over Herbert, who may not benefit as much as many are predicting from the arrival of noted run-game enthusiast Jim Harbaugh.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
  • 2024 ADP: QB12
  • 2023 Total Points: QB6
  • 2023 PPG: QB8
  • Value Score: 10

Purdy was right behind Love in 2023 points and is right behind him in 2024 ADP. Just like Love, he probably doesn’t have truly elite upside but is returning to a great situation with plenty of weapons. And just like Love, I’d move him a couple of slots up … certainly above Stroud (I’m really going to look stupid when Stroud has an elite fantasy season, aren’t I?).

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak comes in with just a value score of 7, below a few other names, but those seven spots mean a lot more considering his ADP is still very high at QB8. Dak was an elite fantasy quarterback in 2023 (the QB4 in points per game without Flacco), but has seen his ADP slide to be that of a backend QB1. Given his situation is likely to be essentially unchanged heading into 2024, I see no reason to predict that much regression. Of the quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him, I’d take Dak over Justin Fields and, yet again, C.J. Stroud.

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