ADP Isn’t a Ranking. I Wish Someone Had Told Me That Earlier.
Welcome to The Learning Curve. I don’t have all the answers…and that’s kind of the point.
You’ve prepared for this draft for weeks. You have your rankings. You know your league settings. You’ve probably done enough mock drafts that your family is starting to wonder if they should be concerned.
You have a plan, and then the draft starts.
A few quarterbacks go earlier than you expected. Then another. A couple of tight ends disappear. You weren’t planning to take either position yet, but now you’re watching names come off the board and wondering if everyone else knows something you don’t.
You look at your rankings. You check ADP. You look back at the draft board.
Meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking...very considerate of it…so you adjust. At least, that’s what you tell yourself.
I know the feeling because I did that last night.
When Being Flexible Becomes Something Else
I went into my draft with a strategy and a process I felt good about. I knew there would be surprises. There always are. Part of having a good process is being willing to adjust when the draft gives you new information.
Then the quarterbacks started going and going. Tight ends quickly followed.
I watched those positions start disappearing, and somewhere along the way I started letting the draft room pull me away from the process I had walked in with.
At the time, I thought I was being flexible. Afterward, I wasn’t so sure.
I went back through my draft and asked a friend to take a look. He wasn’t in the league, didn’t have anything invested in my team, and could give me an unbiased opinion.
Talking it through helped me see something that wasn’t nearly as obvious while I was sitting on the clock:
I thought I was being flexible. I was actually being influenced.
That one bothered me a little. Not because I ended up with terrible players. I didn’t. And not because adjusting during a draft is wrong. You should adjust.
What bothered me was why I adjusted.
Was I changing course because the draft had given me new information that created value somewhere? Or was I changing course because quarterbacks and tight ends were disappearing and I was getting nervous?
And the more I thought about it, the more I realized I’d made a similar mistake with ADP for years. I was letting information tell me what to do instead of using it to help me decide what to do.
I Knew What ADP Meant. That Wasn’t the Problem.
I’ve been playing fantasy football for about 13 years and have spent more than 10 of those years as a Dr. Roto subscriber. I’ve won championships. I’ve lost championships. I’ve even had seasons where I thought I might finally have this thing figured out.
Fantasy football has always been kind enough to correct me when necessary.
So yes, I knew ADP stood for Average Draft Position.
What took me much longer to understand was what it was actually telling me.
For a long time, I treated ADP almost like another ranking. Player A has an ADP of 28. Player B has an ADP of 37. Well, 28 comes before 37. Boom! Mystery solved. I’ll obviously take Player A.
Except ADP isn’t telling me Player A is better. The distinction that finally clicked for me was pretty simple:
Rankings help me understand how someone values a player. ADP helps me understand how the market values him.
Once I understood that, ADP became much more useful.
If I like two players and one normally disappears around my current pick while the other tends to last another round, that’s useful information. It doesn’t make the decision for me. It helps me understand the risk involved in making it.
And that’s exactly what those QB and TE runs were doing last night too. They were giving me information about my draft room. The mistake wasn’t paying attention to the run. I should have. The mistake was letting it create a sense of urgency before asking myself if anything had really changed. Did I suddenly value those QBs or TEs more, or was I just worried I’d miss out?
Unfortunately, Your League Has Other People in It
ADP can tell us what thousands of fantasy players have been doing. It cannot tell us what Kevin from accounting is about to do with the seventh pick.
Your league is its own little market, complete with favorite players, team loyalties, position runs, reaches, surprises, and at least one pick that makes everyone stop for a second and look at the board.
That’s part of what makes drafting fun.
It’s also why I’ve stopped treating ADP like a prediction of what will happen and started using it to think about what might happen.
Let’s say I’m sitting at pick 42 and there’s a player I really like whose ADP is 55. I can look at that number and tell myself, “Don’t take him yet. He should make it back.”
I’ve done that. Sometimes he does. Sometimes, three picks later,I’m staring at his name on someone else’s roster, wondering why the rest of the league failed to follow the plan I had so carefully created for them.
So, I’ve started asking myself a much simpler question:
If I pass on him now and he’s gone when I pick again, am I okay with that?
Not, “What does ADP tell me I’m supposed to do?”
Am I okay losing him?
Sometimes the answer is yes. There’s enough value elsewhere that I’m willing to take the chance. Sometimes it’s no.
Then I have a decision to make.
Ever compare two sets of rankings and wonder if these people are even watching the same sport?
I’ve been fortunate to learn from Dr. Roto and his team for more than a decade, along with other people across the industry whose opinions I respect. And guess what? They don’t always agree.
That used to drive me crazy. Just tell me who’s right!
Now I’m learning that the disagreement may actually be more useful. Instead of asking “Who’s right”? I can ask, “Why are they different”? What does one see that the other doesn’t? Which argument fits my league, my roster, and the way I want to build my team?
I don’t need an expert to make the decision for me. I need good information that helps me make a better one.
Two Questions I’m Taking into My Next Draft
Last night’s draft reminded me that knowing your process and actually trusting it while the clock is running are two different things.
That’s a little humbling to admit.
I’ve been doing this for 13 years. I’ve won championships. I’ve played against some very good fantasy players.
And I still got pulled away from my process because the draft room started making me uncomfortable.
But that’s also exactly why I wanted to write The Learning Curve.
Playing fantasy football for a long time doesn’t mean you’ve finished learning how to play it. At least it hasn’t for me.
So instead of pretending I’ll never make that mistake again, I’m taking two questions with me into my next draft…the same two I hope you’ll remember when you’re sitting on the clock.
If I pass on this player now and he’s gone when I pick again, am I okay with that?
And when the draft starts moving in a direction I didn’t expect:
Am I adjusting because the draft gave me useful new information, or because the draft is making me nervous?
That’s it.
No secret formula. No guarantee that I’ll make the perfect pick.
Just two questions that make me slow down for a second, trust my preparation, and make my own decision. That’s really what I’m trying to get better at.
I’m not trying to predict the future anymore. I’m trying to make better decisions in the present.
Sometimes I’ll nail them. Sometimes I’ll completely miss. And sometimes I’ll make a perfectly reasonable decision, and the football gods will laugh at me anyway. That’s okay.
If you’re drafting soon, try those two questions when the room starts getting a little crazy. Maybe they’ll help you too.
And if they don’t?
Well…I did warn you in the first sentence that I don’t have all the answers.
Trust your process. Have some fun. And remember, we’re all somewhere on the curve.
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